The Worst-Case Economic Scenario for the Oil Spill

By
Monday, May 03, 2010 at 8:18 am

Over the weekend, David Kotok of Cumberland Investors, a much-watched CNBC market analyst, put out a very gloomy analysis of the economic impact of the BP offshore oil spill. Entitled “Oil Slickonomics,” the note traces out three possible scenarios, depending on how quickly the government and BP contain the spill, but Kotok reminds us, “There is no ‘good’ [scenario] here.”

In the best case, he thinks:

Containment chambers are put in place and they catch the outflow from the three ruptures that are currently pouring 200,000 gallons of oil into the Gulf every day. If this works, it will take until June to complete. The chambers are 30-foot-high steel configurations that must be placed on the ocean floor at a depth of one mile. This has never been done before. If early containment is successful, the damages from this accident will be in the tens of billions. The cleanup will take years. The economic impact will be in the five states that have frontal coastline on the Gulf of Mexico: Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida.

And in the worst, he thinks:

This spew stoppage takes longer to reach a full closure; the subsequent cleanup may take a decade. The Gulf becomes a damaged sea for a generation. The oil slick leaks beyond the western Florida coast, enters the Gulfstream and reaches the eastern coast of the United States and beyond. Use your imagination for the rest of the damage. Monetary cost is now measured in the many hundreds of billions of dollars.

Moreover, he teases out the macroeconomic impact in any possible case:

Federal deficit spending will certainly rise by tens, and maybe hundreds, of billions as emergency appropriations are directed at larger and larger efforts to clean up this mess. At the same time, federal and state revenues tied to Gulf-region businesses will fall….

We expect that the Federal Reserve will extend the timeframe that we have come to know as the “extended period” in the making of its monetary policy. We do not expect the Fed to raise interest rates at all for the rest of this year, and maybe well into next year. We expect to see the deterioration of the economic statistics for the US to reveal the onset of this oil-slick crisis in May, and the negative impact will intensify during the summer months. A “double-dip” recession probably has been made more likely by this tragedy.

We are at the highest level of cash in our U.S. stock accounts that we have seen in over a year and a half. We expect a market correction will present entry points at lower stock prices. We have exited the financial sectors, including the insurance ETF. We now worry about the banks that are exposed. We do not own the major oil stocks now. Some of them face enormous liability payments.

In short, Cumberland believes that the oil spill has likely increased the chance of a double-dip recession due to the enormous economic damage to the Gulf states (already not faring too well, particularly Florida), financial and energy company exposure to the crisis, the outsize impact on small businesses and the new federal deficit spending required — all of this on top of the tremendous environmental impact.

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321 Comments

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Pingback posted May 3, 2010 @ 11:43 am

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[...] Annie Lowrey in The Washington Independent uncovers a chilling forecast from David Kotok of Cumberland Investors on the economic impact of the BP oil spill. Kotok’s best-case scenario is losses in tens of billions of dollars for Gulf states. Worst case? Sure you want to know? [...]


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ajm8127
Comment posted May 3, 2010 @ 1:21 pm

Twenty-one years later, students who travel to islands in Price William Sound still can easily uncover rocks and find crude spilled by the Valdez. This tragedy is going to shatter the already fragile lives of the Gulf inhabitants. Additionally, hurricane season will be upon them soon. Throw that on top of the Citizen's United SCOTUS decision, and things look very grim. If I believed in God, I'd pray for those affected by potentially the worst environmental disaster in the history of the US.

Did you hear that BP is trying to get people to sign away their right to sure for $5000? That's like getting in a car wreck, and agreeing not to file an insurance claim against the at fault party if they give you 100 bucks, before you get an estimate on the damage to your car!


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Thingumbob
Comment posted May 3, 2010 @ 3:18 pm

—The climate hoax legislation now pushed by President Obama would provide trillions of dollars in loot for a gang of speculators whose central instrument, the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), was initiated by Obama himself.

While he was an Illinois state senator, Obama in 2000-2001 engineered private foundation funding for the start-up of the Exchange scheme, whose British, Wall Street, and Chicago beneficiaries soon boosted him rapidly into the U.S. Senate and the White House.

Under “cap and trade” or some similar U.S. government program, derivatives and other bets would be placed, through the Exchange, on how much carbon dioxide is not emitted by various entities.

The principal figures with Obama in this enterprise are British empire and allied American operatives including:

* Al Gore, the former Vice President now already a hundred-millionaire through this and related swindles;

* Maurice Strong, the British Empire Malthusian-genocide strategist;

* Goldman Sachs, now facing potential criminal charges for global looting;

* Fannie Mae, the Federal mortgage agency otherwise instrumental in bringing on the world credit blowout; and

* Chicago financier-strategists who invented derivatives and similar instruments to cripple and loot the economy.

Obama Creates a British Company

The Chicago-based Joyce Foundation was a Barack Obama ticket to power.

With State Senator Obama as the rising politician on the Joyce board of directors, the foundation gave $347,000 (in 2000) and $760,000 (in 2001) for “the inception, creation, feasibility and design of CCX,” according to the history provided on the Climate Exchange's website.

French magazine Reseau Voltaire's Thierry Meyssan reports that Obama himself drew up the protocols or statutes of the Chicago Climate Exchange, acting as attorney and administrator for the Joyce Foundation.

Obama's Joyce board seat was taken over in 2002 by Valerie Jarrett, and she has since managed Obama's relationship to his sponsoring Chicago oligarchs.

The Chicago Climate Exchange was created as a British private company (LLC), to be managed from London.

The Exchange was the brainchild of Richard Sandor, known as “Mr. Derivative” and “principal architect of interest rate futures markets.”

The Joyce money went through Sandor, who became chairman of the Exchange. As chief economist for the Chicago Board of Trade in the early 1970s, Richard Sandor and other monetarist fanatics converted the Board of Trade into a central global agency for the London-dominated parasitical financial speculation which was to replace the advanced industrial economy. Leslie Rosenthal, another derivatives strategist and former chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade, is a director of the Chicago Climate Exchange.

Blood and Gore in London

The Chicago Climate Exchange went into operation in 2003.

Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore promoted the sale of CXX stock to British investors.

In 2004, Gore and Goldman Sachs executive David Blood created a bank in London, called Generation Investment Management. The Gore London bank bought 10% of CXX shares.

David Blood brought other key Goldman Sachs speculator-executives over to the Gore bank. Then Goldman Sachs itself bought up to 19% of the Chicago Climate Exchange.

David Blood later worked wealthy Londoners to fund the 2008 Obama Presidential campaign.

Al Gore's mentor, Canadian Maurice Strong, is a director of the Chicago Climate Exchange. In the early 1970s, Strong as a British Royal Family/World Wildlife Fund and Rockefeller family representative organized the 1972 Stockholm environmental summit for the United Nations. The global warming hoax was subsequently promoted through Strong's United Nations apparatus, and by Strong's protege Al Gore. Strong's investment lieutenant Peter Knight became a top executive of Al Gore's London bank, co-owner of the Chicago Climate Exchange.

Obama now relies on the Maurice Strong-created UN apparatus as a global force to promote the multi-trillion dollar cap-and-trade swindle.

And Strong's team within the board of Chicago Climate Exchange includes these CCX directors:

Rajenra Pachauri, the notorious head of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that has been caught red-handed faking data; Elizabeth Dowdeswell, former head of the UN Environmental Program; Michael Jammit Cutajar, former head of the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change; and Thomas Lovejoy, former World Wildlife Fund executive vice presdient and science adviser to the UN Environmental Program.


strangely_enough
Comment posted May 3, 2010 @ 3:35 pm

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Thingumbob
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The fun never stops!


John
Comment posted May 3, 2010 @ 6:54 pm

My gosh, us British make Machiaveli look like Andy Pandy. Glboal Climate scams, rigged global markets, destruction of American oil industry. There is no end to our deviousness.
Pip Pip, old bean.
PS Have you considered changing your medication?


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