The Futility of Budget Cuts

By
Thursday, April 08, 2010 at 12:52 pm

Today, an Economist/YouGov poll making the rounds shows that Americans would vastly prefer budget cuts to new taxes — by 62 percent to 5 percent. The poll goes on to ask Americans which government spending programs they would choose to cut: “If government spending is reduced in order to balance the budget, which of the following government programs should receive lower federal funding than they currently do?” (Respondents could pick more than one thing to axe.)

Here is how they responded:

The most expendable programs, according to poll takers, were mass transit, housing, agriculture, environment and foreign aid, the runaway winner at 71 percent. The problem? These programs together barely comprise 3 percent of the federal budget. Even if the programs were entirely eliminated, the cuts would do nothing to solve the United States’ long-term entitlement program.  Indeed, the responses had no obvious correlation with spending size.

The red bars in this graph indicate expenditures in the various areas:

The poll highlights the conundrum: Americans want to solve the long-term deficit program and want the federal government to run a balanced budget. They are willing to make budget cuts. But the government cannot cut enough from discretionary programs to bring the budget into check and ultimately to reduce the deficit. (Half of Americans still believe the government can.) Entitlement programs — Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security — are at the heart of the problem, with spending growth in health care programs the single biggest culprit. The lone solution — save for politically improbable radical spending cuts to defense, health care programs and social security — is tax hikes. Most economists agree on the point, reiterated strongly by Fed Chair Ben Bernanke in a speech yesterday. But the promise of tax increases is hardly a savvy campaign platform, and it will be up to members of Congress to sell the necessity and prudence of tax hikes to an economically distressed citizenry.

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201 Comments

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roland1115
Comment posted April 8, 2010 @ 5:35 pm

So the entitlements are the biggest part of the budget that we can't afford but those of the Washington Independent want more entitlements. But we can tax more to get more entitlements we can't afford.

Your not making sense. Wake up liberals. Learn about the Laffer Curve. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve


allenwsmithphd
Comment posted April 8, 2010 @ 5:51 pm

Most of what is currently being written about Social Security, totally ignores the most urgent problem facing the program. That problem is the fact that, every dollar of the $2.5 trillion in surplus Social Security revenue, generated by the 1983 payroll tax hike, has already been spent by the government. The trust fund contains no real assets. It is empty!

Most of the articles are written by well-intentioned people, who just amplify the misinformation that the AARP and the NCPSSM have been bombarding their members, and the public, with for years. The myth is that Social Security has $2.5 trillion in, “good- as-gold,” Treasury bonds stashed away in the trust fund that will make possible the payment of full Social Security benefits for decades to come without any action. The message may be comforting to those who believe it, but it is not true.

I have been researching and writing about Social Security for more than a decade, and I have published four books on the subject. The hard fact is that every dime of the $2.5 trillion in surplus Social Security revenue, generated by the 1983 payroll tax hike, has been spent on wars and other government programs. Every month, for the past 25 years, the total receipts from the payroll tax have been split two ways. First, benefits for current retirees are paid from the Social Security revenue. Then, all remaining Social Security revenue, not needed to pay that month’s benefits, are deposited into the general fund and become indistinguishable from other general fund revenue.

Most workers think that at least some of the FICA taxes deducted from their paychecks will be saved and used to pay future Social Security benefits. But it doesn’t work that way. Not a single dime of payroll tax revenue has ever been saved and earmarked for the payment of future benefits. To put it bluntly, the government has “borrowed,” “embezzled,” or “stolen” every penny of the $2.5 trillion of surplus revenue that was supposed to be saved and invested. I consider this to be the greatest fraud ever perpetrated on the American people by their government. I have been trying to expose this awful truth for more than a decade, and some courageous people were trying to expose it even before I stumbled onto the scam in 1999.

On October 13, 1989, Senator Ernest Hollings (D-SC) issued the following warning in a speech on the Senate floor.

“…the most reprehensible fraud in this great jambalaya of frauds is the systematic and total ransacking of the Social Security trust fund ..in the next century…the American people will wake up to the reality that those IOUs in the trust fund vault are a 21st century version of Confederate bank notes.”

A year later, on October 9, 1990 Senator Harry Reid (D-NV) made a similar warning in a Senate speech. He said:

“…on that chart in emblazoned red letters is what has been taking place here, embezzlement. During the period of growth we have had during the past 10 years, the growth has been from two sources. One, a large credit card with no limits on it, and, two, we have been stealing money from the Social Security recipients of this country.”

On January 21, 2005, David Walker, the Comptroller General of the GAO, tried to make it clear to everyone that the trust fund contained no real assets. He said:

“There are no stocks or bonds or real estate in the trust fund. It has nothing of real value to draw down.”

If anyone has any remaining doubts about whether or not the trust fund contains real assets, those doubts should be removed by the following statement from the 2009 Social Security Trustees Report:

“Neither the redemption of trust fund bonds, nor interest paid on those bonds, provides any new net income to the Treasury, which must finance redemptions and interest payments through some combination of increased taxation, reductions in other government spending, or additional borrowing from the public.”

I urge everyone who cares about the future of Social Security to please visit my website at http://www.thebiglie.net to learn more about Social Security and my efforts to expose the scam. Excerpts from my latest book, “THE BIG LIE: How Our Government Hoodwinked the Public, Emptied the S.S. Trust Fund, and caused The Great Economic Collapse,” are posted on the site. Please feel free to download them.

Allen W. Smith, Ph.D.
Professor of Economics Emeritus
Eastern Illinois University
Website: http://www.thebiglie.net
Email: ironwoodas@aol.com
Phone: 1-800-840-6812


strangely_enough
Comment posted April 8, 2010 @ 6:05 pm

The Laugher Curve was discredited long ago. Yeah, cutting taxes to zero would equal budget surpluses, forever.

Less entitlements, more bombs!


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Swami_Binkinanda
Comment posted April 8, 2010 @ 6:17 pm

The Laffer Curve is a fraud as even David Stockman told us during the Reagan administration. I'm not sure we have a government anymore, it seems more like we have a services group that maintains the illusion of democracy for the masses and services the international and domestic agendas of our oligarchs and elites.


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roland1115
Comment posted April 8, 2010 @ 7:11 pm

It is a parabola not a linear equation. The fact is you decrease the tax rate axis too far, then the revenue axis starts heading to 0 again.

“Taxes” are not just the % that is paid out of profits. “Tax” is also the govt. regulations that prevent the free market from working. Our lives are too far regulated today. They are the hindrances to people starting cottage industries.


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Spr0
Comment posted April 8, 2010 @ 7:42 pm

I'd be interested in seeing these two graphs matched up with a third graph showing the percentage of the budget the public perceives these various programs to take up. That might tell us how much public perception of the size of a program influences its willingness to cut it, and thus how civic education might help the political problem here.


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ScoobyDude
Comment posted April 8, 2010 @ 10:16 pm

You're right. It is a parabola. And the best Economics of the day (i.e. not luatic firnge right wingers) suggests that the inflection point on the curve lies at about 60% total taxation. Or, in other words, we can increase taxes by about an additional 75% over their total current rates without declining revenues. Duh.


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gordonsoderberg
Comment posted April 12, 2010 @ 5:39 am

Defense budgets are not the true numbers. The offensive nature of our international interests do reflect any relationship to the amount of safety the people of America actually get. In fact the most patriotic families are sending their children to fight for a losing investment and suffer the most both financially and physically. Why because they have been scared Americans into thinking they need to fight on known foes everywhere in the world or fight them here at home. Guess what folks? They are already here and asking for more money to protect you by killing and maiming your kids, The most vocal about “defending the country against terrorism are the same folks who don't want to support veterans assistance programs. Go figure those numbers and get back to me with a justification for our collective action either financially or for true security of families in America.


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Wes
Comment posted April 14, 2010 @ 4:37 am

It's not futile to make budget cuts. The American politicians and public must simply be brave enough to acknowledge where the real problems lie and make cuts to those areas. Continuing to gloss over the huge problems with domestic entitlement programs and proposing higher taxes is not a long term plan that leads to sustainability or liberty. You cannot buy the utopia you seek with other people's money.


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nevans
Comment posted April 17, 2010 @ 12:52 am

We here in CA are several years ahead in this debate, having made budget cuts for several years. The most popular thing to cut is always “waste, fraud and abuse” even though no one quite knows how to find enough billions of dollars of WFA to cut. What these polls really show is that people hate taxes in theory and love services in their daily lives. Pollsters really need to start asking better questions and taxpayers need to be better informed about where their money goes.


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Jason
Comment posted October 27, 2010 @ 12:16 pm

Notably missing is Corporate Welfare (forgone taxes or subsidies) that politicians at all levels of government have bestowed on large corporations. I’d like to know just how much money has been forfeited by local municipalities across this nation just so they could win the race to get the new Wal Mart. Show the true impact of our psuedo-capitalism in the amount of owed tax dollars kept by large corporations who are supposed to compete fairly in the system. I hope someday a new “Chamber of Commerce” emerges that truly represents the small businesses of America and brings to the light of day the Corporate Welfare that is selectively bestowed on the uber-rich.


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Comment posted February 16, 2011 @ 9:23 am

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Eb
Comment posted February 19, 2011 @ 8:09 pm

Annie,

I added up all of my taxes, income, FICA/FUTA (self employed so that alone is 15.4%), state income tax, sales tax, gasoline tax, “sin tax” on a few cigars I occasionally have, property tax, ad-valorem on my vehicles, etc. and came up with 63%, leaving me with 37 cents of every dollar I make. I don’t know how much higher my taxes can go before I just have to just close my small business and give up.


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