In Ohio, a Republican Candidate Slips in the Polls

Former congressman John Kasich, running for governor of Ohio after a solid decade of local Republican pols begging him to make the plunge, is seen as one of the party’s best candidates in a blue state. At CPAC, 2006 Ohio gubernatorial candidate Ken Blackwell beamed with confidence when I asked him how Kasich was doing. So the news of a Quinnipiac poll that shows Kasich slipping against Gov. Ted Strickland (D-Ohio) is a surprise. Strickland has climbed from a 40-40 tie to a 44-39 lead, improving his standing on every issue, even as Kasich narrowly leads on some (like fulfilling campaign promising and balancing the budget).

What’s the poll tell us? Only 45 percent of voters approve of President Obama — six points down from his 51 percent victory in 2008, but not quite a toxic number that can poison Strickland. More importantly, 56 percent of voters disapprove of current health care legislation, and in that they join Strickland, who’s created some daylight between himself and national Democrats by criticizing it. Fifty-three percent, however, want Obama and Congress to keep working on health care reform.

It’s one poll, but it might give pause to Republicans who think the 2009 off-year elections and 2010 Massachusetts race point to an electoral tsunami that they can ride to easy wins. Strickland is in far better shape than, for example, former Gov. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.) was at this point in 2009 — last February, he trailed now-Gov. Chris Christie (R-N.J.) by six points.