Iranian Dissidents Fear Repercussions of U.S. Sanctions

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Monday, December 28, 2009 at 6:00 am
Mir-Hossein Mousavi (Roshan Norouzi/ZUMApress.com)

Mir-Hossein Moussavi (Roshan Norouzi/ZUMApress.com)

As the Obama administration and its allies prepare new economic sanctions for Iran, the Iranian dissidents of the Green Movement and their supporters abroad are expressing concern over what the sanctions will mean for a nascent political force that has the potential to transform the Islamic Republic. But some are beginning to think that sanctions specifically targeting the most hardline elements of the Iranian regime might be acceptable.

[Security1] Ever since the fraud-filled June 12 presidential election yielded the largest protests in 30 years from Iranians demanding widespread political reform, the Iranian regime has embarked on a campaign to discredit the Greens by portraying them as tools of nefarious western interests. The attack on the Greens’ nationalist credentials has come alongside mass detentions and brutality directed at them by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the ideological vanguard of the Iranian military, and the pro-regime militia known as the Basij. Under those pressures, Green leaders like Mir-Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Kerroubi have staked out an even more nationalistic stance than President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, urging him to reject a deal offered by the Obama administration that would tamp down international tensions over Iran’s nuclear program.

Similarly, both Moussavi and Kerroubi have denounced the prospect of new international sanctions. “I do not agree with any pressure on any government because, at the end of the day, the ordinary people will suffer,” Kerroubi said in October. Moussavi has circulated a statement portraying sanctions as ultimately benefiting a regime prone to demagoguery and hurting “the people who have already been agonized by this government.”

That sentiment has been echoed by some Green allies in the United States, who cringed over an exchange this spring between Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Rep. Howard Berman (D-Calif.) about placing “crippling sanctions” on Iran. “Economic sanctions, particularly ‘crippling’ or blanket economic sanctions, are counterproductive and will only hurt the regular Iranian citizens,” said Hadi Ghaemi of the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran. “Sanctions such as the petroleum sanctions will surely help the government and Revolutionary Guards who are already so apt at smuggling and will transfer the burden to the average citizen while blaming the foreign powers for their hardship.”

On Dec. 15, the House passed a bill sponsored by Berman, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, granting President Obama new powers to place sanctions on petroleum products and other fuel imports to Iran. In a press conference after the bill passed, Berman derided “the notion that you are going to have effective sanctions that don’t impact on the Iranian people,” contending that it would be hard to devise a real sanctions package that did not have adverse economic effects on Iranian citizens.

Still, that’s exactly the distinction that some Green supporters in the Iranian exile community say lawmakers must draw if sanctions are to gain even reluctant Green support. Over the past several years, the IRGC has played an increasingly prominent role in Iranian civilian economic activity and especially in the nuclear program that has prompted the prospective sanctions. Ghaemi said he supports “very well-defined, targeted sanctions” aimed at “the government or Revolutionary Guards’ pocket book, not the people’s.”

Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said he perceived a shift in how Green supporters in and outside of Iran were discussing sanctions. While they once opposed any form of punitive measure against Iran, the post-June 12 anger at the regime and the IRGC has led some to view sanctions targeted against the IRGC more favorably, though that view is not universal.

“There’s a diversity of views, with some in favor and some opposed,” Sadjadpour said. “Post-June 12 was a real earthquake. Many friends who unequivocally opposed U.S. punitive measures in the past now believe [IRGC-focused sanctions] could be a necessary evil. But I don’t claim that’s necessarily a majority view, just that the view exists.”

An example of the heated debate within pro-Green communities in the United States came earlier this month in New York, when a student group expressing solidarity with the Greens held a forum featuring Columbia University professor Hamid Dabashi and Akbar Batebi, a former Iranian student activist leader. According to an account of the forum posted on Iranian.com, Batebi contended that “we have to use sanctions against the coup government,” while Dabashi countered that “sanctions would be a precusor [sic] for military strikes on Iran, as they had been in Iraq.”

Sadjadpour noted that while some on the pro-Green side were starting to warm to sanctions, none accepted the prospect of a military strike on Iran. “Military action would would kill the opposition movement.”

In an unexpected move, last month the Iranian filmmaker and close Moussavi ally Mohsen Makmalbaf endorsed “sanctions to hurt the regime, but not the people” during an appearance at at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington. Provocatively, Makmalbaf suggested that Green leaders only publicly opposed sanctions because they would be placing their lives in danger if they endorsed them. At his press conference on the 15th, Berman echoed the suggestion that Moussavi and Kerroubi’s opposition to sanctions was insincere. “There are a lot of different reasons why they might have said that,” he said.

To Trita Parsi, the president of the National Iranian American Council, attempts at reading Green leaders’ minds are exasperating. “The opposition has made it as clear as it possibly can make it: They’re not seeking sanctions,” Parsi said. “How many different ways do they have to say it before it sinks in?”

The Obama administration has yet to decide on a sanctions package, and accordingly has not secured international support for any specific sanctions. But the administration is looking at targeting the IRGC specifically — although a knowledgeable U.S. official said that unintended effects of sanctions on the Greens were a real concern. “It’s a fair critique,” the official told TWI last week.

Absent a diplomatic breakthrough, the sanctions package will likely be finalized early in the new year. However, circumstances could change before then; Iran’s foreign minister said this weekend that Iran might accept a modified version of the Obama administration’s nuclear deal.

Follow Spencer Ackerman on Twitter


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Notes on Iran | Heretical Ideas Blog
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tropicgirl
Comment posted December 28, 2009 @ 2:38 pm

“the Iranian dissidents of the Green Movement and their supporters abroad are expressing concern over what the sanctions will mean for a nascent political force that has the potential to transform the Islamic Republic”…

You better believe your BUTTS they are. The west has no concern for them or their future and they are complete idiots to think the west has anything good up their sleeves for them. Wake up, people…

More importantly, it is totally disgusting to see the feigned support for the man, Moussavi, who has been LINKED TO THE CIA and the BLOWING UP OF AMERICAN SERVICEPERSONS in the middle east and Israel.

DOESN'T THIS BOTHER YOU AT ALL? Why do you not care about OUR servicepersons? The simplest research on the web spills the beans, totally.

You see, this is why people are inclined to distrust the government explanations for, say, 911, for example. Or even the current so-called attempts at “terism”.
You go on and on about some guy with a firecracker on a plane, but this scoundrel goes on as some sort of a hero? You don't even mention what a disgusting past this person has. What gives? What is he, your HERO?

And, I am still waiting for the reason for the “crippling sanctions”. The Iranians have not threatened anyone. But both Israel AND the US have threatened NUCLEAR ATTACKS on them. And don't tell me they haven't. I have Ron Klein on tape, at one of his election speeches, speaking on behalf of Obama and the Democrats saying just that. Sanctions and drone bombs are the coward's ways and do nothing but kill children and sicken their mothers.

Makes one proud to be American.

If you can't be the slightest bit honest, then get lost. Please.


ff11
Comment posted December 28, 2009 @ 5:36 pm

I am not aware of any credible (or even not so credible) sources connecting Moussavi to the blowing up of American service persons in the middle east and Israel. Would you mind posting your source for these accusations?

Also, although drones can be viewed as a cowardly way of dealing with an enemy (sanctions really can't), it may still be a fair way to deal with a cowardly enemy, and they don't get much more cowardly than the regime that rules in Iran.


The Dish tries a pivot on the “Sanctions Question” « The Daily Dishwater
Pingback posted December 28, 2009 @ 5:42 pm

[...] obvious answer, aired by Spencer Ackerman here, is very targeted sanctions designed to hurt the pocket-books of the regime’s leadership, not [...]


tropicgirl
Comment posted December 28, 2009 @ 6:53 pm

It is really all over the net, although I am noticing the scrubbing. You have to dig. The link between Moussavi and the CIA is most obvious with his involvement in the the Iran-Contra scheme. He also supported the taking of American hostages then. The Cole link is harder to find but it is there. To understand incidents like the Cole and others, one would have to research the hundreds of false flag events that have been orchestrated by the CIA in order to scare up American support for wars in the Middle East. That is a separate vein of research but Moussavi is center stage.

No one is going to hand info to you and you should not trust that. If you really want to know, you must research and check references. They are there although, as I said, being “polished”.

Here is a good article I found that further illustrates the ties with Moussavi and the CIA:
http://www.consortiumnews.com/2009/093009.html

And from another source today…

“”Former assistant secretary of the US Treasury under Reagan says it’s all just another destabilization plan ordered by the US: “The CIA has been conducting a destabilization plan within Iran for the last two years; it is well known and has been widely reported in American and British press. We are seeing the fruits of an orchestrated protest that is taking place in Tehran,” said Roberts, adding “The American media serves as a propaganda ministry for the government”.

Investigative journalist Wayne Madsen notes that “George Bush funneled $400 million to George Soros’ Open Society Institute and National Endowment for Democracy (NED) institutions to influence this opposition movement against the Iranian government…Every time you hear about revolutions it is George Soros and the Open Society Institute.”

“The West does not conceal its intention to hold another color revolution in Iran” runs the title of a post election Pravda piece which points out that “The current state of affairs in Iran means that the West intends to have another ‘color revolution’ in Asia at all costs. The practice of such revolutions has proved to be successful in Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan.” (read Soros!!!)

The befouled, copraphilic hand-prints of Brzezinski and Kissinger (Obama’s handlers, essentially) are all over the staged, provocateured “revolution”. It’s revolution of the rich, by the rich, for the rich. They are staunch globalists, and they obediently bleat “Down with China, down with Russia” in their bid to become a client/proxy of the vicious, divisive US hegemony that has now all but wrecked most of the region. The disgusting Kissinger comes right out and says this on the BBC in June. Watch it if you don’t believe me

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkQ1iNHEGW8

he speaks of flattening cities should our colour revolution fail. Then we have an Alciada splinter cell with close CIA ties knocking off the leader of the revolutionary guard and his aids right after this. How obvious can it get? C’mon people wake up and connect the dots.

I hope this helps.


Swami_Binkinanda
Comment posted December 29, 2009 @ 5:11 pm

So basically no evidence, simply a bunch of hearsay and conspiracy fantasy from the internetz.

Okay then.


Swami_Binkinanda
Comment posted December 29, 2009 @ 10:11 pm

So basically no evidence, simply a bunch of hearsay and conspiracy fantasy from the internetz.

Okay then.


LobeLog.com » Blog Archive » Neocons Worried That Sanctions Might Not Kill Enough Innocent Iranians
Pingback posted December 30, 2009 @ 2:59 pm

[...] targeted sanctions appear to be more than the Iranian opposition desires. Spencer Ackerman, in his useful discussion of the Green Movement’s position on sanctions, notes that some elements of the opposition [...]


Neocons Worried That Sanctions Might Not Kill Enough Innocent Iranians | Diplomacy
Pingback posted December 30, 2009 @ 3:00 pm

[...] targeted sanctions appear to be more than the Iranian opposition desires. Spencer Ackerman, in his useful discussion of the Green Movement’s position on sanctions, notes that some elements of the opposition [...]


Welcome | Project on Middle East Democracy
Pingback posted January 27, 2010 @ 3:13 pm

[...] are “overly optimistic, to say the least.” He continues, “Iranian reformists are sharply divided on whether economic sanctions — even targeted ones — would help or hurt the Green [...]


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