rssA Nobel Clue to How Obama Will Deal With Iran Next Year?
Thursday, December 10, 2009 at 5:09 pm
- 7 Comments
Time is almost up for the Obama administration’s “dual-tracked” approach to Iran. As the Islamic Republic keeps rejecting the administration’s diplomatic outreach and moving forward with its nuclear program, the administration is primed to turn to the U.N. Security Council early next year to seek authorization for a program of multilateral sanctions enforced by Iran’s major trading partners. Perhaps if U.N. ambassador Susan Rice finds that to be an insurmountable challenge, President Obama will seek to assemble his own coalition to enforce a sanctions package. Either way, unless there’s a major breakthrough with Iran very shortly, this will be the path the administration will most likely — and most reluctantly — tread.
But notice a line at the toward the end of Obama’s Nobel acceptance speech about sanctions, coming in the context of a reflection on how to make human-rights guarantees meaningful. It carries with it a tantalizing hint about how diplomacy might proceed with Iran even if Obama wins a new sanctions package.
But I also know that sanctions without outreach – and condemnation without discussion – can carry forward a crippling status quo. No repressive regime can move down a new path unless it has the choice of an open door.
He never mentions Iran here. But that’s quite the blueprint for post-sanctions diplomacy.
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7 Comments
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Comment posted December 10, 2009 @ 5:38 pm
What “diplomatic outreach” would that be? “DO as we demand or else we'll sanction and bomb you”?? Call that diplomacy? THe US “diplomatic outreach” to Iran was intended to fail – that's why the US refused to even negotiate Iran's counterproposal. This is part of Dennis Ross' plan to make the intended war more “sellable”:
“The goal, of course, is not just to bring about a military conflict, but also to make sure that it appears that it was the Iranians who brought about this conflict.”- http://pulsemedia.org/2009/06/12/talking-to-ira…
Pingback posted December 10, 2009 @ 11:57 pm
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Comment posted December 11, 2009 @ 7:19 pm
The only thing this POTUS has done is set deadlines for Iran to capitulate. They haven't met any of them because there are no consequences. Iran has, so far, been given a free ride for an additional 11 months of Obama's presidency which has enabled them to get even closer to producing THE BOMB.
I guess they don't teach how to follow up on deadlines and threats with real action in Neighborhood Organizing classes.
Comment posted December 12, 2009 @ 2:12 am
Like Bush's Cowboy Diplomacy and saber rattling did anything either for EIGHT years.
In fact, the worst thing to happen with the Iran situation was invading Iraq… that took away the only other power in the region which kept Iran in check.
Not to mention buppkis. nada. nothing. on NoKo… except for missle tests… all during Bush's reign.
By reaching out, and giving NoKo and Iran “an open door” and options to negotiate, it will be much, much easier to get China and Russia on board sanctions with teeth.
Gates has said repeatedly that military action would only gain us “2 to 3 years at best”.
Obama plays the long game, and will bring the hammer down. He's no pansy or peacenick.
He put in 20,000 troops into AfPak a month into his Presidency, and went against his base to put in another 30,000.
That doubled the amount that was there for the previous 7 years. All the military men, Petraeus, Gates, Mullen, spoke glowingly about the 3 month review and how that helped sharpen and construct a better strategy.
Not bad for a community organizer.
Comment posted December 12, 2009 @ 7:12 am
Like Bush's Cowboy Diplomacy and saber rattling did anything either for EIGHT years.
In fact, the worst thing to happen with the Iran situation was invading Iraq… that took away the only other power in the region which kept Iran in check.
Not to mention buppkis. nada. nothing. on NoKo… except for missle tests… all during Bush's reign.
By reaching out, and giving NoKo and Iran “an open door” and options to negotiate, it will be much, much easier to get China and Russia on board sanctions with teeth.
Gates has said repeatedly that military action would only gain us “2 to 3 years at best”.
Obama plays the long game, and will bring the hammer down. He's no pansy or peacenick.
He put in 20,000 troops into AfPak a month into his Presidency, and went against his base to put in another 30,000.
That doubled the amount that was there for the previous 7 years. All the military men, Petraeus, Gates, Mullen, spoke glowingly about the 3 month review and how that helped sharpen and construct a better strategy.
Not bad for a community organizer.
Comment posted July 26, 2010 @ 12:19 pm
That doubled the amount that was there for the previous 7 years. All the military men, Petraeus, Gates, Mullen, spoke glowingly about the 3 month review and how that helped sharpen and construct a better strategy.
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