Even Further Clarification on Afghan Security Force End-Strength

During today’s House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on Afghanistan, Rep. Gene Green (D-Texas) asked if an increase to 400,000 Afghan soldiers and police — that figure stands at a little under 200,000 total now — will be enough.

Gen. Stanley McChrystal replied that a “detailed analysis” using “basic COIN doctrine” to determine that 600,000 police and soldiers were necessary in a country of Afghanistan’s size. (That acknowledged a criticism made by counterinsurgency critics that the need is too great for the U.S. and Afghan capabilities.) “But the insurgency is not in the entire country,” he continued, so “we were able to reach what was necessary a better long term endstate.” That led to an estimate of “about 400,000,” — clarifying that that remains, sort of, his goal –  with a breakdown of 240,000 soldiers and 160,000. That total, however, is “not a hard number at this point but a goal we work toward and adjust accordingly. As McChrystal said earlier, he will “re-look that every year” to determine what’s realistic.”