So what is defeated Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman doing by casting doubt on the results of the NY-23 special election? The most obvious answer, suggested by that letter, is fundraising. It was an expensive race, and Hoffman put some of his own cash on the line, so that makes sense. Why, though, make claims that offend the Republican leaders in the district — accusing them, basically, of being unwitting accomplices to fraud?

I’d credit that to Hoffman’s greenness as a candidate if he wasn’t being advised by professional politicos like Rob Ryan, a veteran of George Pataki’s 1994 gubernatorial campaign, and Mike Long, chairman of the state Conservative Party. Throughout the campaign, Ryan tried to make the case that Democratic allies like ACORN and the Working Families Party were all set to commit vote fraud. It always seemed like a base-motivating gimmick — indeed, it worked so well that Hoffman backers I met saw an African-American GOP strategist walk by and started assuming, out loud, that he was an ACORN plant.

Why did Hoffman concede in the first place? That I’d credit to the campaign’s overconfidence. They went into election day planning for a clear victory. Hoffman bragged to me, and to other reporters, that he hadn’t even talked to Dede Scozzafava, the ousted GOP candidate, because he’d “win without her.” When votes started coming in far, far below their expectations, they lost hope very quickly. Hoffman himself was so devastated during his election night speech that he temporarily forgot to mention that he was conceding the election — Mike Long ran onstage with a note reminding him to — and he left the election party making no more statements to the press.

Simply put, I think Hoffman panicked on election night and is now honestly, frantically trying to undo a mistake. I don’t know if he or his team realize the long-term political damage of this.