Poll: Beau Biden Grabs Lead in Delaware Senate Race

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Monday, November 16, 2009 at 2:48 pm

This is one of the more surprising polls I’ve seen recently: Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, son of the vice president, is leading Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) in a hypothetical 2010 U.S. Senate matchup. The Susquehanna Polling & Research survey has Biden beating Castle by five points. When they polled this race in April, Castle led by 21 points. (This poll was conducted from November 10 to November 15.)

What’s responsible for the Biden surge? He’s grabbed the lead in vote-rich New Castle County, built up a 41-point lead among Democratic voters, and moved to only 5 points behind Castle among independents. According to the pollster, the shift “may be a result of negative publicity [Castle] received in the state after casting a ‘no’ vote for President Obama’s health care reform bill in the U.S. Congress.” Castle, who has thrived as a moderate Republican in an increasingly Democratic state, has been casting more partisan votes–against the stimulus package, for the Stupak amendment–that have been well-reported in Delaware.

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Tweets that mention Poll: Beau Biden Grabs Lead in Delaware Senate Race « The Washington Independent -- Topsy.com
Pingback posted November 16, 2009 @ 2:49 pm

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Trackback posted November 16, 2009 @ 3:04 pm

Social comments and analytics for this post…

This post was mentioned on Twitter by TWI_news: Poll: Beau Biden Grabs Lead in Delaware Senate Race http://bit.ly/3DBUyP...


Tweets that mention Poll: Beau Biden Grabs Lead in Delaware Senate Race « The Washington Independent -- Topsy.com
Pingback posted November 16, 2009 @ 3:07 pm

[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Washington DC News , Washington DC News . Washington DC News said: Poll: Beau Biden Grabs Lead in Delaware Senate Race: This is one of the more surprising polls I’ve seen r.. http://bit.ly/1TmZJA [...]


Congressmen, Beware: Oppose health care reform at your own peril
Pingback posted November 16, 2009 @ 3:21 pm

[...] the Washington Independent: What’s responsible for the Biden surge? He’s grabbed the lead in vote-rich New Castle County, [...]


Matthew Yglesias » Crazy Person Pushes Lunatic Theory that Casting Hard-Right Votes is Sometimes Politically Problematic for Republicans
Pingback posted November 16, 2009 @ 5:32 pm

[...] of them or anything they stand for is popular. That’s why Dave Weigel’s post about how Beau Biden is now leading Mike Castle by five points in polling instead of trailing hum by 20 is so [...]


Phillip Hallam-Baker
Comment posted November 16, 2009 @ 6:25 pm

Wow, a majority of Americans support Health Care Reform and a Republican who puts his party and the insurance industry ahead of reform looses a 21 point lead in the polls. Who would have thought that pandering to Fox News viewers talking about Death Panels might not be the popular thing to do?


brendanm
Comment posted November 16, 2009 @ 11:06 pm

What, no Colbert bump for Castle?


stansso
Comment posted November 16, 2009 @ 11:49 pm

There's some serious methodology issues with this survey…

1) It's not random digit dialing.

2) There's no likely, or even registered voter screen.

3) The survey itself doesn't ask demographic questions, and either relies on the accuracy of consumer data or the voter file (which never includes phone numbers for each voter — see #1).


links for 2009-11-17 | Bailout and Financial Crisis News
Pingback posted November 17, 2009 @ 7:40 am

[...] David Weigel: Poll: Beau Biden Grabs Lead in Delaware Senate Race What’s responsible for the Biden surge? He’s grabbed the lead in vote-rich New Castle County, built up a 41-point lead among Democratic voters, and moved to only 5 points behind Castle among independents. According to the pollster, the shift “may be a result of negative publicity [Castle] received in the state after casting a ‘no’ vote for President Obama’s health care reform bill in the U.S. Congress.” Castle, who has thrived as a moderate Republican in an increasingly Democratic state, has been casting more partisan votes–against the stimulus package, for the Stupak amendment–that have been well-reported in Delaware. [...]


Pirates! Man Your Women! » Blog Archive » Delawarean Insanity
Pingback posted November 18, 2009 @ 10:43 am

[...] Poll: Beau Biden Grabs Lead in Delaware Senate Race [...]


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