RNC Poll of NJ/VA: All About Turnout

The Republican National Committee has made available two lengthy voter surveys conducted in New Jersey and Virginia as Republican candidates were winning gubernatorial races there last week. There’s a lot in there, including message-testing on anti-health care reform and cap-and-trade arguments, but this part really jumped out at me. The easiest explanation for the Republican wins is that … Republicans turned out to vote. The RNC found that Republicans in New Jersey made up 35 percent of the electorate, up from 28 percent in 2008. In Virginia, Republicans made up 41 percent of the electorate, up from 33 percent. In both states, Democratic and independent affiliation declined; in Virginia, where Creigh Deeds ran the most disastrous Democratic gubernatorial campaign in anyone’s memory, it fell eight points, down to 31 percent.

Here, meanwhile, is an example of the data not quite matching the spin.

New Jersey is not part of D.C., of course.

Here’s the whole survey.