NY-23: Hoffman Campaign Looks at Overturning the Election

By
Thursday, November 12, 2009 at 11:05 am

On election night, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman conceded defeat to Democratic candidate Bill Owens after dramatically under-performing in key counties and deciding that he couldn’t overcome the gap. Today, the campaign is “looking very closely” at a recanvass of the district that has revealed, as recanvasses often do, screw-ups in the initial count. What was a 5,335-vote margin for Owens on election night is now a 3,026-vote margin, due largely to initial under-reporting of Hoffman votes in Oswego County and Jefferson County.

According to Mark Weiner’s report, the Hoffman campaign is leaving open the option of legal challenges if a recanvass goes Hoffman’s way. I talked to Hoffman’s spokesman Rob Ryan, who said the campaign is keeping its own count, and that lawyers have checked out the polling places that reported the bogus numbers. But he was bearish on the campaign’s chances of a post-facto upset.

“It’s not something I would place a bet on,” said Ryan. “Even if the margin had been 3,000 votes on election night, we would have conceded. We just might have done it later.”

Ryan pinned the confusing initial numbers on bureaucratic snafus, not malice. And he said the campaign only had “longshot odds” of passing Owens when absentee ballots were counted. The reason: Only around 10,000 absentee ballots were requested. If the final margin puts Owens anything like 3,000 votes ahead of Hoffman, Hoffman would need to beat Owens by a 2-1 margin or better among absentee voters. And while Republicans hope that Fort Drum could deliver a huge Hoffman margin in absentee ballots, military personnel only requested 2,299 absentee ballots.

The other factor in the absentee count is, of course, votes for Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava. While Ryan pointed out that Hoffman’s victory scenario always involved a three-way race with Owens and Scozzafava, Democrats pointed out to me that the presence of Scozzafava votes further shrink Hoffman’s margin for error. What if 10,000 people voted absentee and she won 3,000 of their votes? That would force Hoffman to win the remaining ballots by a 5-2 margin in order to pass Owens. That, plus Democratic confidence that they ran a good absentee campaign (as they did in NY-20 this year), closes off Hoffman’s hopes unless there are wild swings in the vote count that make this much, much closer.

UPDATE: I’m hearing that only 6000 absentee ballots total will have been returned. Let’s say Scozzafava won only around 1000 of them–probably quite a bit lower than her actual totals. That would require Hoffman to pick up four of every remaining five absentee ballots.

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43 Comments

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norlight
Comment posted November 12, 2009 @ 11:50 am

Very interesting comment by Mr. Ryan that a Hoffman victory was predicated on a three way race. Conservative commentators have consistently maintained that in a two way race that Hoffman would win. Not even the Hoffman campaign believed that!


verplanck colvin
Comment posted November 12, 2009 @ 11:52 am

Fort Drum, not Fort Hood.


joetheinformed
Comment posted November 12, 2009 @ 12:01 pm

I am sure they will find a way to cheat and get him in office. If Bush can do it, why not this clown.


Doug White
Comment posted November 12, 2009 @ 12:11 pm

chech with acorn on those absentee ballots


jerrychristian2006
Comment posted November 12, 2009 @ 1:09 pm

Bushes win was certified by independent vote counters over and over. Get over it! Your partisanship is showing. Doesn't a fair and impartial vote count me anything to you? Let the man with the most legitimate votes win!


FedUp
Comment posted November 12, 2009 @ 1:12 pm

Counting the People's Vote is not Overturning an Election


patrickmcintire
Comment posted November 12, 2009 @ 1:23 pm

Republicans never lose, and if they do they send in the crazies to forge birth certificates and intimidate everybody. This country is sick of republicans and fed up with their mental illness. Democrats have won 5 out of 5 special elections since last November. Look at the elections in 2006 and 2008. The country is done with republicans. They had their chance and they blew it. Only the lunatics are left on the right.


TaxMeForHeathCare
Comment posted November 12, 2009 @ 1:53 pm

*sigh*, in other words, “Yay my team! Your team sucks!”

Let's rise above partisan politics for a minute and realize that elected officials from both parties, with some minor exceptions, are using their terms in office to spend, spend and spend this country into oblivion. The repubs brought us to the edge of a cliff with two endless wars and an unrestrained Federal Reserve. The dems' have not changed the wars or the Fed, are now buying up banks and the auto industry, and promising us health care for all. It will finally push us over the edge.


bugmenot
Comment posted November 12, 2009 @ 4:02 pm

*eyeroll*

Ignoring, for the moment, that government spending to fill the hole of a recession is a common sense measure…

Obama is in month 10 of his 16 month timetable to leave Iraq, and, reportedly, is actively searching for as clean as possible a way out of Afghanistan. The plan for GM and the banks has always been to get them back into private operation ASAP. And Healthcare Reform was specifically crafted to be both budget-neutral and deficit-reducing, and the CBO reports have confirmed that the democratic reform measures easily achieve this.

Like it or not, the GOP is measurably worse than the Democratic party.


bugmenot
Comment posted November 12, 2009 @ 4:04 pm

…and the man with the most legitimate votes would have been Gore. Every real independent recount (i.e. those not made up by Fox “News” and embraced by you) have proven that.


jerrychristian2006
Comment posted November 12, 2009 @ 4:53 pm

Where do you get your facts, from the Huffington Post?  We have an electoral college which is not ruled by the popular vote total. Have you studied your history?  And every independent study proved Bush won.  Let me review some fact for you.  Gore could have been ahead by 1 million votes in New York and won that state,  But, he could have been behind by 200 votes in Florida and lose that state.  Each state has delegates that go to the winner.  In some states it's a winner take all deal.  So even though Gore may have more popular votes, he lost the electoral vote.  I know it's hard for liberals to grasp, especially when on the losing side.  I accept that Al Franken won Minnesota by a very close vote.  But, you cannot accept historical facts.  Now, lest you think, I'm a conservative republican, I'm not.  I am an independent voter that crosses party lines.  Obviously you are a partisan voter.


gootman
Comment posted November 12, 2009 @ 5:40 pm

You keep saying that over and over and you might really start to believe it. Most of my friends fell under the Obama and the Democrats spell last year, Now they are all scared and can't wait till next years elections to correct a mistake. The problem is that you Liberials need us to pay for all of you crap, but we don't need you to survive. We take care of ourself.


gootman
Comment posted November 12, 2009 @ 5:46 pm

You still singing that tired old song. Boy what weak bunch we would have been if that Idiot would have won. We may as well just elect a Muslim terrorist to run the country, Oh wait I forgot we did.


MadMtn Scot
Comment posted November 12, 2009 @ 7:40 pm

I am not a dem or a repub, but this statement by “bugmenot” shows that the kool-aid still has residual effects in a hopefully diminishing segment of the population. Pelosi's Heathcare bill is a disaster. Forcing Americans to buy anything in not a power granted to anyone in the govt in the Constitution. Oh, wait, do we still have a Constitution? Or was that voted out by the House as well? The House is out of control, and Pelosi is the one at the wheel, cackling wildly as it careens off the cliffs of illegitimacy.


About candidate, hoffman, bill, conservative, special election, race, doug, owens | Find me About
Pingback posted November 12, 2009 @ 9:08 pm

[...] On election night, Conservative Party candidateDougHoffman conceded defeat to Democratic candidateBillOwens after dramatically under-performing in key counties and deciding that he couldn’t overcome the gap. …Read Original Story: NY-23: Hoffman Campaign Looks at Overturning the Election – The Washingto… [...]


About hoffman, bill, conservative, special election, race, doug, owens | Find me About
Pingback posted November 12, 2009 @ 11:12 pm

[...] On election night, Conservative Party candidate DougHoffman conceded defeat to Democratic candidate BillOwens after dramatically under-performing in key counties and deciding that he couldn’t overcome the gap. …Read Original Story: NY-23: Hoffman Campaign Looks at Overturning the Election – The Washingto… [...]


About congressional race, hoffman, bill, conservative, special election, doug, owens | Find me About
Pingback posted November 13, 2009 @ 1:09 am

[...] On election night, Conservative Party candidate DougHoffman conceded defeat to Democratic candidate BillOwens after dramatically under-performing in key counties and deciding that he couldn’t overcome the gap. …Read Original Story: NY-23: Hoffman Campaign Looks at Overturning the Election – The Washingto… [...]


Methuselah
Comment posted November 13, 2009 @ 2:52 am

No, you are just flat out wrong. “Every independent study” DID NOT “prove Bush won”.

Read it for yourself here:
http://www.aei.org/docLib/20040526_KeatingPaper…

….posted by the American Enterprise Institute.

Al Gore received more votes in Florida than Bush, and would have won the electoral college vote if the Supreme Court had not halted the recount.

You are simply mistaken, and may have misunderstood (or heard bad reporting of) the results of the definitive study of the Florida race. The Media Consortium counted ALL the votes in the state, and then examined outcomes under six different counting scenarios based on PARTIAL counts, using select counties that were proposed by both camps in court. Under the different partial count scenarios, both candidates won the state's electoral college votes, depending upon which counties were selected.

But when ALL the votes were counted in the state, Gore won. If the Supreme Court had not halted the full recount of the entire state of Florida, Gore would've been declared the winner of the state of Florida, and thus the electoral college vote. Which, as you note, would have made him the winner.

I know it's hard for some people to accept that historical fact, but at least it's backed up by sourced evidence rather than a myth.

Seriously, go read the study and stop perpetuating the myth that “Bush won in all independent studies”, because it simply isn't true.


Methuselah
Comment posted November 13, 2009 @ 2:58 am

Not true, please see comment below. If a fair and impartial vote count truly means anything to you…read the study linked below from the American Enterprise Institute.


What’s New « promotionsforLIFE.com BLOG
Pingback posted November 13, 2009 @ 9:11 am

[...] – The counting continues.  The votes are close and NY-23 may go to Independent candidate Doug Hoffman.   Dems rushed [...]


jerrychristian2006
Comment posted November 13, 2009 @ 9:32 am

Look, we can at thia all day.  You show me your ten studies that show Gore won.  And I'll show you ten independent studies that shows Bush won.


Methuselah
Comment posted November 14, 2009 @ 1:58 pm

>”Bushes win was certified by independent vote counters over and over.”

No, it wasn't. If you know of ANY other studies that recounted the entire state of Florida, please post the link.

Since the entire state is the basis and the sole legal standard for the allocation of electoral college votes to determine the presidency, any study that did not recount ALL the ballots in the ENTIRE state is not sufficient evidence to prove your claim.

So yes, if you can find ANY study that recounted the entire state, please prove it. I'm sick and tired of this canard that has become an article of faith among rightwingers but is entirely based on bad reportage.

Seriously, no one is going to go back in time and take away the eight disastrous years of the Bush presidency – unfortunately — so you're safe to look at the facts now.

>”Let the man with the most legitimate votes win!”

Apparently you don't actually believe that. Your partisanship is showing. I'm sick and tired of people who have a demonstrably false, provably wrong memory of a pivotal moment in our nation's history.


Methuselah
Comment posted November 14, 2009 @ 2:11 pm

No, just show us one — ONE study that recounted the entire state that determined Bush received the most votes.

I backed mine up with a link to a study that counted the entire state, so where's yours? Prove it. Honestly, I would love to see some proof of your claim.

But if you cannot prove it with a sourced link, then you should promise to never claim ever again that “Bush won Florida”.


jerrychristian2006
Comment posted November 16, 2009 @ 9:50 am

I have legitimately asked that you prove your claim.  You are basing it on false reporting by the liberal news medis.  And you can assess that I am playing partisan politics all you want, but it is just another lie that liberals rely on to try an discredit the facts.  Attack the messenger.  I have always voted independent and believe the two party system is archaic and needs to be done away with.  It serves to give us bad policies because people believe they must follow the party line.  I think every politician should be independent and certainly every voter should.  I live in Missouri, and I voted for a republican, and a democrat.  Two of my favorite democrats in this state are Senator Claire McCaskill, and Ike Skelton.  I write e-mails to them about interests and concerns frequestly.  Both respond qite well.  But I did not vote for Barack Obama.  Now, you want to call me a partisan.  Well, who am I a partisan of?  Now, you asked for some
evidence to support my claim.  Read these articles:  And I remind you that these come from liberal leaning news organizations!
Associated Press, as published in The New York Times, “Vote Review: Bush Would Have Won Fla.”


conservative101
Comment posted November 16, 2009 @ 11:02 pm

we demand for re-count & re-count!


conservative101
Comment posted November 16, 2009 @ 11:05 pm

you are dreaming my friend!
wait and see in 2010! your guys will be kikked from office and retire!
HA HA HA


Methuselah
Comment posted November 17, 2009 @ 1:30 am

Are you joking? You're pointing to an article from the NYT that is ABOUT the study that I linked to!

So the answer to my question is NO, you're NOT able to come up with any supporting evidence for your claim. We won't go 'round and round' on this because there is no other evidence that you can use — because it doesn't exist!

The article you reference, “Vote Review: Bush Would Have Won Fla.”, IS ABOUT THE STUDY THAT I LINKED to ABOVE, at the American Enterprise Institute (apparently a “liberal news medis” [sic] outlet in your book).

The NYT article — IF you bothered to actually read it, which obviously you didn't — along with ALL of the articles written about the Media Consortium study, ADMIT that if elections officials had counted ALL overvotes and undervotes that showed the clear intent of the voter — which are REQUIRED to be counted under Florida law — Al Gore won Florida.

Look, I don't give a damn who you vote for — then, now or ever. I am sick and tired of people perpetuating myth and NOT FACTS, especially after the FACTS have been pointed out to them and they STILL can't be bothered to get it right.

It's not attacking the messenger to point out the FACTS. YOU are the one who is basing your opinion on “false reporting by the liberal news media”. READ THE STUDY. Hell, read your own damn 'evidence'!


jerrychristian2006
Comment posted November 17, 2009 @ 9:23 am

Thank you so much for totally baring your liberal stripes.  I love angry Liberals, they always accuse people of being “Partisans.”  Well guess what they should be calling themselves?  Hey, just in case you haven't heard, Bush won the election.  That was decided by the United States Supreme Court.  And you and your liberal friends just can't get over it.  Also if you wish to count all of the votes, did you happen to forget about New Mexico and other states which found a substantial amount of undercounted votes for Bush.  So, if you want to count the popular Vote it should be counted in all 50 states and the territories, not just Florida.  But, that wouldn't suit your set of so called “Facts” would it?


jerrychristian2006
Comment posted November 17, 2009 @ 9:39 am

Even though you absolutely will not listen to reasons, but will hang on to the very last line of this article as your conclusive proof, it remains a huge question as to what the most generous standards.  In those syudies, they considered that if Ralph Nader had not run, Gore would have won easily.  Howeevr, Ralph Nader did run and he drew more votes away from Gore than he did bush, 
 
Post recount
After Florida was decided and Gore conceded, Texas Governor George W. Bush became the President-elect and began forming his transition committee.[43] In a speech on December 13, in the Texas House of Representatives chamber,[44] Bush stated he was reaching across party lines to bridge a divided America, saying, “the President of the United States is the President of every single American, of every race, and every background.”[45]


Methuselah
Comment posted November 17, 2009 @ 11:05 am

Gore did win the popular vote in the nation. Here, you can see for yourself, according to the Federal Election Commission:
http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2000/prespop.htm

Other states like NM were never recounted, and substantial problems were found in every state but there were no recounts so we'll never know for sure what the final count was in those states, unlike FL. I now far more about election law and history than you do, I guarantee it. So seriously, you'll have to do better than just making stuff up without any evidence to back up your claim that NM would have gone to Bush.

It won't change anything to admit that Gore received more votes, btw. BUSH STILL WON the election, and will still have been president for the last eight years.

As I said before, it's just really, really tiresome that people don't actually know the provable FACT that Gore received the most votes in BOTH Florida — the state that determined the electoral college vote using the clear standard REQUIRED by FL state law, the standard that you claimed in an earlier comment when you said 'count all legal votes' — AND the most votes in the whole nation. Gore didn't 'win”, but he did get the most votes.

FYI, neither the FEC nor the American Enterprise Institute are 'liberal media outlets', and these are not 'articles'. They are both the primary evidence from which all your 'articles' are written.

So, just to recap, since you keep changing your line of argument — I never claimed that Bush didn't win the election — he clearly did,and nothing we say here will change that.

You made a claim that was unsupported by the evidence, so I pointed out the facts to you. For the record, you have posted no evidence. (because there is no other set of 'facts' you can post with any actual evidence.)

I'm just pointing to the provable evidence that shows Gore got the most legal votes — again, that was the standard YOU claimed, not me.

Either way, it isn't partisan to point to the facts. If you ever find your evidence of “ten independent studies” showing Bush won, by all means, post 'em.


rightwinginc
Comment posted November 17, 2009 @ 5:38 pm

Some liberal idiot said:
“This country is sick of republicans and fed up with their mental illness.”
—————————–
Hoffman is running under the Conservative party, not the liberal party. Liberals are clueless.

Also, Maybe you should read some polls (the real scientific ones, not the fake ones on Daily Kos). The country is leaning away from the Democrats and their leftist agenda by over 50%.

This Hoffman guy came out of left field and is within 3,026 votes? That's gotta scare you loony lefties! 2010 is going to leave some bruises on you American hating Socialists.

http://www.RightWingInc.com
Anti Liberal Stuff


Simpleton
Comment posted November 19, 2009 @ 11:55 am

Some discarded sanitary napkin wrote:
==
Hoffman is running under the Conservative party, not the Republican party. Liberals are clueless.
==

As if that is a point of distinction given how the Republicans supported Hoffman. Well at least Palin and Steele did.

So did Newt but only after supporting the Republican.

Must be an ACORN conspiracy.

The same douchebag sucker also wrote:

==
The country is leaning away from the Democrats and their leftist agenda by over 50%.
==

Indeed. Which is why the Democrats have 58 Senators, and 250+ Reps in HoR and are in control of the WH.

And just a year ago, the Republicans had 50+ Senators, and were in control of the WH.

Luckily the “leftist agenda” liberals are not idiots. Wish you could say the same of the Republicans.

Why not cry ACORN instead and ask for a birth certificate


republicanstupidity
Comment posted November 19, 2009 @ 7:35 pm

WE DEMAND THAT YOU CHANGE YOUR DIAPER AND WIPE THE DROUL FROM YOUR LIPS


republicanstupidity
Comment posted November 19, 2009 @ 7:36 pm

WHAT HAS THE RETARD REPUKES DONE?? YOU CLOWNS SCREW UP EVERYTHING AND YOU THINK AMERICA IS JUST GONNA FORGET?? BITCH PLEASE PUT YOUR HAND DOWN NO ONE CARES WHAT YOUR STUPID ASS THINKS


republicanstupidity
Comment posted November 19, 2009 @ 7:37 pm

CHECK WITH YOUR 2ND GRADE TEACHER ABOUT YOUR LACK OF SPELLING


republicanstupidity
Comment posted November 20, 2009 @ 12:35 am

WE DEMAND THAT YOU CHANGE YOUR DIAPER AND WIPE THE DROUL FROM YOUR LIPS


republicanstupidity
Comment posted November 20, 2009 @ 12:36 am

WHAT HAS THE RETARD REPUKES DONE?? YOU CLOWNS SCREW UP EVERYTHING AND YOU THINK AMERICA IS JUST GONNA FORGET?? BITCH PLEASE PUT YOUR HAND DOWN NO ONE CARES WHAT YOUR STUPID ASS THINKS


republicanstupidity
Comment posted November 20, 2009 @ 12:37 am

CHECK WITH YOUR 2ND GRADE TEACHER ABOUT YOUR LACK OF SPELLING


spelling word games
Comment posted September 14, 2010 @ 9:49 am

Very interesting comment by Mr. Ryan that a Hoffman victory was predicated on a three way race. Conservative commentators have consistently maintained that in a two way race that Hoffman would win. Not even the Hoffman campaign believed that!


3796833
Comment posted September 7, 2011 @ 12:54 pm

3796833 beers on the wall. sck was here


4016352
Comment posted September 7, 2011 @ 12:54 pm

4016352 beers on the wall. sck was here


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