NY-23: A Conservative Polling Memo on Hoffman

FYI - Hoffman ran on the Conservative Party's ticket...not the GOP's. If anyone was stabbed in the back, it was her; and the people wielding the knife were the same who have rejected out-of-hand the notion that the GOP should be anything other than the uptight white-person's party. Is there presently any more cognitive dissonance than that between self-proclaimed "republicans" and "conservatives"??

I would disagree that Scozzafava not endorsing Hoffman was not about his apparent lack of outreach. It seems to me that she considered Hoffman her opponent from day one, ie: that Hoffman 'lied' (reneged) about supporting her once she got the GOP nod. He stole her chance at being the NY23 Rep and then he racked up an impressive lineup of conservative supporters, which gave the race it's boost to a national level of interest, which added to her exposure and received criticism. Her 'press conference' in front of the Hoffman campaign office further illustrated her belief that he was her opponent.
No, it seems to me that the Owens endorsement was a kick in the groin for the GOP and Hoffman and that was the moment when she left the party. Had she not done so, all would have been forgotten by now and she would have retained her position in the NYS Assembly. A classic case of "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned".
Simply put, there was no way in hell that she was going to endorse her perceived rival. But, politically, it was suicide to endorse Owens. She would have been far better off not endorsing either.
I don't think the independents fully understood the schism on the GOP side and figured that it was unstable, so I think they bolted for the only other choice, Owens, who, if memory serves, actually had been registered INDEPENDENT. There's the big reason why he got their vote, in my assessment.

I think too much empasis has been put on Fort drum , why do politicians have to kiss their bootstraps , Watertown would die without them i know that but lets not put all our eggs in one basket, Look at Massena NY and the devistation there but do we hear about it , no only about poor fort drum. As for the traitor to her party i think she should be kicked out and told thanks for nothing, and to turn on the republican party and endorse the enemy is just wrong on so many points, it was clearly evident that the democrats wanted her to endorse owens badly sending the vice president and others here any other time we are ignored , they just wanted another tax and spend democrat in washington to step in line with the ones already there, and for the record Ms Scozzafava lost favor before her traitor like ways by not voting as her constituents would have wanted, same sex and others for example, I hope she does not run in 2010. and let a true republican run

Poll is small and seems skewered toward older respondents. Election turned on labor vote which has been part of winning REPUBLICAN coalition for 20 years. It wasn't Scozzafava's endorsement, but the fact she dropped out. Up until that point, the labor vote was split down the middle. After she left the race, it shifted to Owen and the gotv effort won it for him. Only a moderate Republican can take the seat and the margins will be smaller than in the past--if they can cut into the labor.Owen's persona, and military service along with a good first year may be hard to beat in 20110. The other factors were back lash against trashing Scozzafava and outsiders trying to tell us what to do.

"Parochial issues", said Armey.
HAHAHAHAHA