Hopes Fade for ‘Clean’ Bailout Bill
Monday, September 22, 2008 at 9:48 am
The ‘clean’ bailout bill that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Jr. sent to Congress over the weekend, is anything but ‘clean.’ It would allow the Treasury to pay up to $700 billion for whatever “troubled assets” — in the bill’s first draft “mortgage-related assets” — from whatever banks at whatever price it sees fit. And it has to be passed by Friday or the world will end. The truth is that it will make an unholy mess even worse.
In any case, the hopes for a ‘clean’ bill were gone by Monday morning, and it wasn’t because congressional Democrats were lining up to put in sweetheart provisions. Wall Street’s suits smell a goldmine and are clamoring for position to get the hundreds of millions in fees at stake. Even foreign banks – and foreign finance ministers – are lobbying hard to be part of the bailout. It could be another Marshall Plan
Paulson, or course, will be out of office in a few months, and can walk away a hero to Wall Street. But the rest of us will have to clean up the mess.
Let’s take a deep breath. This $700 billion would cover at least three million homes, plus thousands of commercial developments. All of them, presumably, in various stages of delinquency or default.
Who sets the prices that the Treasury pays for this toxic brew?
Most banks are carrying their residential mortgage paper at something like 65 cents on the dollar. But when Merrill Lynch recently decided to sell off a big chunk of “super senior” triple-A rated mortgage-backed assets — like the ones the Treasury is planning to buy, it got 22 cents on the dollar. And Merrill had to provide 75 percent financing on a non-recourse basis. In other words, the real price was about a nickel on the dollar.
What army of collection and administrative agents will the Treasury hire? (Listen to the chorus of ‘Me!, Me! Me!’ coming from Wall Street.) Which mortgages will it forgive, which ones foreclose?
When the Resolution Trust Corp. took over the commercial mortgages inherited from the savings and loan crash of the 1980s, the administration was an utter horror. I once tried to work through the cost of the operation, but was told that the records were such a mess that it wasn’t possible.
The RTC decided – quite sensibly – just to dump everything, bundling it up into giant pools and selling it to vulture funds. The Bass Bros., KKR, Ronald Perelman, all jumped in, making profits of 100 percent or more a year.
If Paulson really wants a clean bill, the Treasury can just create a $700-billion, U.S. government-owned “sovereign wealth fund” to invest in troubled banks at market prices. A sophisticated board of ex-bankers and accountants could oversee the pricing of individual deals. The equity could even be contributed to the Social Security Trust Funds, under supervision of an investment panel, perhaps with reasonable rules regarding buy-backs or other dispositions.
That will re-liquefy the financial system, while leaving each bank to manage down its own bad assets as it sees fit. No huge transfer of assets, no windfall rake-offs for the bad guys, no administrative scandals. That is the definition of a “clean” bill.
Update: The original version of this story was updated to note a new draft of the bailout bill has circulated.
Charles R. Morris, a lawyer and former banker, is the author of “The Trillion Dollar Meltdown: Easy Money, High Rollers and the Great Credit Crash.” His other books include “The Tycoons: How Andrew Carnegie, John D. Rockefeller, Jay Gould and J.P. Morgan Invented the American Supereconomy” and “Money, Greed, and Risk: Why Financial Crises and Crashes Happen.”
10 Comments
Comment posted September 22, 2008 @ 9:50 am
“In 2007, Wall Street's five biggest firms– Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley – paid a record $39 billion in bonuses to themselves.” ABC's Political Punch — I say no Bail Out!
AND
Sen. John McCain’s campaign manager, Rick Davis, was paid more than $30,000 a month for five years as president of an advocacy group set up by the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to defend them against stricter regulations!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/us/politics/2…
More McCain Hypocrisy! – And for those who think we will not have another Bush/Cheney Whitehouse if McCain gets elected, please be advised that McCain has 10 former Bush strategists and operatives working and advising him now. They are: Steve Schmitt, Tucker Eskew, Tracey Schmitt, Nicole Wallace, Mark Wallace, Stephen E. Biegun, W. Taylor Griffin, Matthew Scully, Greg Jenkins and Matt McDonald, which spells McCain-Bush all over again!
McCain who has been Chairman of the Commerce Committee for years says he knows very little about the economy, the one truth he has been honest about, because it has always been about Corporations first, only and last! It is our turn now and no more corporate bail outs who are in fear of losing their luxurious way of life.
Comment posted September 24, 2008 @ 11:30 am
Obama enough is enough your words – bail out people not wall street. We were screwed twice once on mortgage fraud and then on gas manipulation.
You want my vote – take a stand
OHIO
Comment posted September 24, 2008 @ 12:34 pm
After reading “trillion Dollar Meltdown” (TDM) and attending your lecture in Tucson, I'm wondering if Mr Paulson knows exactly what it is he's proposing to purchase and how to calculate a value. Unfortunately the complexity of the portfolios at risk is little understood in the Press or Congress.
Chapter 4 of TDM makes an excellent explanation of the opacity of the situation, describing the shadowy realm of “Synthetic” securities and how they are mixed with real asset-backed instruments.
What portion of the putative “bad assets” Mr Paulson proposes to purchase might consist of these “synthetic ” CDO/CLO/CLS?
How would the Treasury unwind the CDO/CLO/CDS it buys to determine the true underlying assets, or would it not even bother to try?
Comment posted September 25, 2008 @ 11:12 am
You are exactly right about a sovereign wealth fund or similar agency or even one already existing like the already bailed out Fed and Fan being the proper way to reconstitute the bad mortage loans. I would even suggest that the money and oversight of this then be deployed to State Housing Agencies who would be easier to oversee and are more experienced in their own markets. “If ' it is going to be done at all , and frankly I am opposed to it.
There are other companies who will eventually step in and there is enough investor money looking for a place to go that will be injected to loosen up lending and credit.
I noticed in the Dodd plan that he wanted to foist off any 'leftover' property that Paulson's plan couldn't sell onto the states, where we the taxpayer would have to once agan pony up for the states to purchase these properties and then try to resell them…..getting it off the fed plan and throwing it onto the states..double dipping.
While I am not an economist my family has been in banking and commerical real estate and commerical construction for 140 years so I have a birds eye view of exactly what has gone on.
With this bailout we are also propping up the 'bubble' in financials and real estate that the Fed allowed to happen with easy and cheap money in order to stave off the deflation they were afraid of in the late 90's.
This is a WS and 'bubble bailout and will not work, it's is a scam, a stopgap….and when it doesn't work the second fall will the be last and that will be everyone's real nightmare.
I don't know what else to say to warn people of this move…..except to consider that as congress plans to hand over 700 billion of our money to Paulson who wants to keep on the CEO's who created this mess to “help us solve it”, the FBI is investigating both AIG and Lehman and their CEOs for financial fraud and so informed congress over 2 weeks ago….and still congress is even considering buying the bad assets of these two institutions and Paulson wants the CEO's to be rewarded and brought on board the bailout??
How to put this in a common sense way? … we taxpayers are giving a bankrupt insurer the money to pay off the value of a house the owner himself burned down and building him a new house and getting the ashes of the burned down house as payment.
Comment posted September 28, 2008 @ 5:20 am
good one. this is in line with the swedish model so any upside will be pocketed with tax payers. love your book on trillion dollar meltdown, sent to our FSC chairman as gifts. they love it.
Comment posted September 29, 2008 @ 10:18 am
Is anyone in Washington, DC for the people or are we just a wallet to them..? These crooks got themselves into this mess let them get themselves OUT OF IT..!!
Comment posted September 29, 2008 @ 4:24 pm
1. “Treasury can just create a $700-billion, U.S. government-owned “sovereign wealth fund” to invest in troubled banks at market prices”
Q: How would this act differently from $700 billion of capital (and more) that's already out there?
2. “A sophisticated board of ex-bankers and accountants could oversee the pricing of individual deals.”
Q: How would these be different from the “Wall Street’s suits [who] smell a goldmine and are clamoring for position to get the hundreds of millions in fees at stake.” If they're willing to work for a government salary instead of a Wall St bonus, why? Will they actually be smart enough to outsmart the Wall St. guys?
3. Q: What does Mr. Morris think of William Isaac's proposal to suspend mark-to-market accounting, based on the argument that the current “market price” is not realistic (what with being in panicked freefall)?
Comment posted October 1, 2008 @ 4:00 pm
Imagine a country without credit!!! Things would have to be affordable. Joe Biden was saying what horror it would be if we couldn't finance a washing machine. Lately, people have been finacing their weekly fuel because of gas prices. We're tapped out, politicians! We can't afford to finance half of what we need, so no credit is the medicine we need.
Comment posted October 1, 2008 @ 11:00 pm
Imagine a country without credit!!! Things would have to be affordable. Joe Biden was saying what horror it would be if we couldn't finance a washing machine. Lately, people have been finacing their weekly fuel because of gas prices. We're tapped out, politicians! We can't afford to finance half of what we need, so no credit is the medicine we need.
Comment posted August 2, 2010 @ 1:04 pm
There are other companies who will eventually step in and there is enough investor money looking for a place to go that will be injected to loosen up lending and credit
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