rssGOP Upset in California Special Election Looking Unlikely
Friday, October 30, 2009 at 12:35 pm
- 5 Comments
The NY-23 special election has gotten so much attention that a special election in California, for the seat of now-Undersecretary of State Ellen Tauscher, has fallen off the the radar. There are Republicans who look at the race in CA-10 as a possible back-breaker for Democrats — former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, for example, has focused his PAC’s attention there. But a new poll suggests that Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D-Calif.) is on track to easily win the seat over Republican candidate David Harmer.
Overall, Garamendi holds a 10-point lead in the district. That’s a fairly poor performance for a Democrat — voters here gave the Obama-Biden ticket a landslide 32-point victory over the John McCain and Sarah Palin — but it’s enough to elect Garamendi. Among voters who’ve already cast ballots — more than half of the electorate — Garamendi leads 51 percent to 41 percent. Among late-deciders, he leads 49-40. And SurveyUSA, which often produces strange numbers in its small samples of non-white voters, finds Garamendi only leading by six points with African-Americans. His real lead with those voters is doubtlessly much larger.
If Harmer grabs more than 40 percent of the vote here, Republicans will call it a moral victory. But the larger impact will be on the 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary. Garamendi would resign his office to start serving in Congress, giving Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-Calif.) the power to appoint a new lieutenant governor. If, as some expect, he appoints former GOP Congressman Tom Campbell, that would give the conservative a leg up in the June 2010 primary.
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5 Comments
Pingback posted October 30, 2009 @ 12:40 pm
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This post was mentioned on Twitter by LDI Beltway Insider: RT @daveweigel: GOP upset in CA-10 looking unlikely/impossible.RT @TWI_news: http://bit.ly/38Mvp9...
Comment posted October 31, 2009 @ 4:36 pm
Do not count Harmer out. In a low turn out election and a large retired community in this district who are upset about Obamacare and Harmer could be on his way to Washington. There has also been a lot of meetings and support by the Tea Party and Independents for Harmer.
It is a shame that the Republican Party did not put any support into the election of Harmer. The Republican Party in California is a joke and a haven for liberal Rhino's that are more in line with the Democrats.
Garamendi does not even live in the district. He was an awful insurance commissioner supporting big insurance companies. He is a shill for unions, supports the full blown Obamacare with the government run health care, and will rubber stamp whatever Pelosi and Obama put in front of him.
Hopefully the citizens in the heavily Gerrymandered District in the year 2000 (which is way it is democratic) will see their way to say to anymore Spendocrats in DC.
Comment posted October 31, 2009 @ 8:36 pm
Do not count Harmer out. In a low turn out election and a large retired community in this district who are upset about Obamacare and Harmer could be on his way to Washington. There has also been a lot of meetings and support by the Tea Party and Independents for Harmer.
It is a shame that the Republican Party did not put any support into the election of Harmer. The Republican Party in California is a joke and a haven for liberal Rhino's that are more in line with the Democrats.
Garamendi does not even live in the district. He was an awful insurance commissioner supporting big insurance companies. He is a shill for unions, supports the full blown Obamacare with the government run health care, and will rubber stamp whatever Pelosi and Obama put in front of him.
Hopefully the citizens in the heavily Gerrymandered District in the year 2000 (which is why it is democratic) will see their way to say to anymore Spendocrats in DC.
Pingback posted November 3, 2009 @ 2:40 pm
[...] course, CA-10 is going to go to a Democrat who is going to be much more liberal than the Democrat he’s…, but the national media’s ignoring that little factoid. Possibly related posts: [...]
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