NJ-Gov: Is Corzine Winning?

I’m hearing some smart Republican pushback to today’s Quinnipiac Poll – given its record in the state, one of the more credible surveys — showing Gov. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.) pulling out of a year-long rut and leading Republican candidate Chris Christie by five points.

The main Republican critique of the poll, which contradicts Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen surveys showing Christie ahead, is that it was taken over too long a period. Quinnipiac conducted 1,267 “likely voter” interviews from Oct. 20 through Oct. 26. And the Republican argument is that Christie has recovered in the past few days at the expense of independent candidate Chris Daggett.

The other Republican critique is that this clashes with internal polling (which we won’t get a look at until after the election, if ever) showing Christie in the lead, narrowly, and that Quinnipiac might have over-sampled Democrats. Whatever the case, this poll has Corzine rising above 40 percent to 43 percent, and Christie’s favorable numbers tanking. And both of those elements are essential to the Corzine victory scenario where the incumbent gets near 45 percent of the vote in the three-way race.