Poll: Romney Leads 2012 GOP Race, Obama Would Beat Any Opponent

It's far too early to be talking about poll numbers for 2012.

First let's have Palin, Gingrich, Huckabee, and Romney start campaigning.

When someone mentions the fact that Gingrich served his wife with divorce papers when she was in the hospital, or someone remembers the fact that Gingrich was an AWFUL Speaker of the House and got booted out by the voters of his own home state of Georgia because of it, he won't get double digit support among Republicans, let alone Independents.

When someone actually transcribes what Palin says and publishes it online or performs it as Beat poetry, she won't get double digit support among Independents, but she WILL command a healthy but ineffective minority of Republicans (say, 22 percent).

When Romney has to contort his moderate record into something palatable to right-wingers who dominate the early primaries, people will remember why they didn't vote for him in 2008, and there goes his chance of being nominated.

So that leaves Huckabee and Jindal. I'm not going to offend Huckabee by pretending that Jindal is a credible candidate. Anyone who heard his much-hyped-but-dull-as-dishwater Republican response speech had to have come away wondering why the hell anyone ever thought this guy had a national future.

So that leaves Huckabee.

And, of course, I expect Dick and Liz Cheney to annoint themselves Republican Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates, following a lengthy search that they are tapped to conduct.

It makes more sense than anything else.

Obama will win re-election against anyone. But it's too soon to drill down to precise numbers. People don't have anything current to go on from the Republican candidates. When they start having to define themselves and take positions on current issues, people will remember why the Republican party brand is at a generational low.

stephenperry.
I agree with a lot of the points you made, but didn't most conservative Republicans REGRET that they didn't vote Romney in 2008? That seemed to be the general consensus at the time. That and “why the hell is Huckabee still running, months later when it's mathmatically IMPOSSIBLE for him to win?” a good question.
I think come 2012 it will be more important to cout Libertarian leaning voters than the Birther movement of the party.

Hi niemsters…

Yes, conservative voters had buyers' remorse about John McCain. That does not mean that they will now leap to Romney in 2012. They just didn't like McCain, and some of them thought Romney would have been better, on an anyone-but-McCain theory.

I wouldn't go so far as to say “most” conservatives felt this way. But I would certainly contend that the most conservative voters, that is, the conservatives furthest to the right, felt this way.

Those people are not going to back Romney. They will back Palin or maybe even Gingrich. Romney will again be the compromise between the far right and the moderate right. But Huckabee, if he chooses to run, and Pawlenty, who no one talks about anymore, will also be angling for the moderate GOP vote. That means Romney will have to distinguish himself by going further to the right.

The winner-take-all primaries on the GOP side don't allow for long, nuanced campaigns. It's pretty much over by the time you get out of the Florida primary. That is what doomed Romney. If the right-wing base doesn't like you, and if New Hampshire voters don't like you, then you cannot win.

I think Huckabee kept running because he wanted to get attention for himself and for his particular brand of politics. Judging by the talk show he got out of it, and the attention being paid to him as a 2012 contender, I'd say he made the right choice. He also helped out Democrats who wanted to be able to drive home the point that McCain was not liked by his own party's base, because Huckabee kept winning Southern primaries or getting significant shares of the vote.

I don't think there are enough libertarians to make up for the losses the Republicans have suffered in the past generation. I wouldn't mind seeing the GOP try to court the libertarian vote, since that will just make the GOP look even less palatable to normal Americans. The idea that government could be the size of a homeowners' association and no one would have to pay taxes is the sort of thing you chat about in a bar when everyone gets tired of talking about what position they would have played if they could have played pro ball (and if the knee injury / pregnant girlfriend / incredible lack of talent hadn't gotten in the way). Not the sort of thing you try to run for President on.

I agree with you that the political landscape will be different in 2012, Palin is on the far right now as oposed to Romney. But Palin is unpopulor with the vast majority of Republicans and will likely not be a contender.

Huckabee has an unusual position. He took some fairly liberal positions while governing that conservatives didn't like, but he's solid gold when it comes to Evangelical voters, which there are a lot of. I think his continuing to run hurt him by making it obvious that he wasn't a team player. He would have been the VP choice over Palin if he'd pulled out after super Tuesday.

As far as the Libertarian question, I think you have a false concept of who they are. Only the extream want to eleminate 95% of government and all taxes. Most are common sense independents, which is the demographic that chooses our president.

Unfortunately, the 30 second soundbite debate model works against Gingrich — Obama and Gingrich would provide for a good debate (interesting to see how an unscripted Obama would do against some serious challenge from Newt) — more importantly, Bill Maher thinks we are too stupid to pay attention for more than 30 seconds… stephenperry I do disagree with you however — the Repubs will have to go on message, even tho' it is enticing to watch the dems self-destruct as they are increasingly co-opted by the far left of the party, in order to win — they will recognize it and come up with something (how good I am not willing to bet at this point)… remember too that 2010 is fair game and a more mixed Congressional body leaves Obama further out with the left of his party… that tune is already played out just 8 months in… seems to me these poll numbers will certainly tighten…

[...] wasting any time before focusing in on the 2012 Presidential elections, a new poll out surveying the Republican field in 2012 shows that the top four vote getters have a lengthy record of homophobia and trying to take away the rights of LGBT [...]

What about Obama VS PAUL. Why not put him on there.

September 11th is Patriot Day & the 17th is Constitution Day. On at least those two days let us pray for the salvation of the man some people refer to as “President” and/or “Barack Obama”. I pray he will get right with God, come clean with the American people about his past and resign from office. If he resigns immediately before any indictment VP Biden will become president & BHO can be pardoned for his deceit.

give me a break. He is the PRESIDENT so deal with it.

I still think Huckabee is the best choice, because he comes across as sincere, smart, and shows the ability to talke directly to the issues. I think alot of Democrats do not take him very seriously at this point, but they did not take Reagan seriously either at this stage before the 1980 election.

President Obama is begining to show the same problems most Democrats have. High taxes, weak on defense. If the economy does not improve or gets worse, he could very easily lose the Presidency. People loved Carter too, but then came run away inflation and (low and behold) Iran.

By the time the election rolls around, ODUMBA won't be able to beat his meat.

For now……….For now………..He's also a criminal, liar, empty suit, speech giver, thief, and a typical NIGGAH! Now….YOU deal with THAT!

I think Romney could somehow beat Obama, but it’s not time yet for this. We need a uniting figure to win and America needs to understand this in order to get it. Thank you and no offense.

if you dnt like our president pack your bags and move to canada until 2016

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