The Progress on Loan Modifications Isn’t Quite What It Seems

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Wednesday, August 05, 2009 at 9:29 am

The Treasury Department’s report on the progress — or lack of it — among servicers doing loan modifications makes it seem like the Obama administration is keeping a close eye on its Making Home Affordable Program. But Felix Salmon at Reuters takes a second look at Treasury report, and raises some important questions. Salmon notes that the purpose of the report is “to document the number of struggling homeowners already helped under the program, provide information on servicer performance and expand transparency around the initiative.” Treasury officials told The Wall Street Journal they were encouraged by the program’s early results, even though only about 9 percent of eligible borrowers have received trial loan modifications so far.

The bigger problem, Salmon writes, is that the Treasury’s report “seems to have more spin than transparency.” How so? Well, the graph accompanying the report refers to “cumulative” progress made on loan modifications. And that’s just not helpful, he explains.

Consider this graph:

hamp.tiff

Yay! It’s up and to the right! Things must be great, no? Except there’s that annoying word “cumulative”. Cumulative graphs are generally misleading: they can only ever go up, and can’t ever go down. In order to judge this graph, you really have to look very closely at the gradient, to see whether the rate of modification trials is increasing at all. And it seems that it isn’t.

What’s more, you’ll look in vain, in this report, for any indication of how the rate of new modifications compares to the rate of new foreclosures. That’s the key thing to look at: if the rate of foreclosures starts to fall, we might be getting somewhere. But that rate isn’t mentioned in the report.

Yes, the report does single out some servicers, such as Wachovia Mortgage, for their very low modification rates. But overall it seems to be determined to paint a rosy picture of the HMA scheme, rather than objectively reporting on whether it’s working or not.

In the meantime, the folks at the nonprofit advocacy group ACORN give Treasury its due for trying to single out servicers that aren’t doing their share. But Acorn doesn’t think that’s enough, Housing Wire reports.

The Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN), in response to the Treasury announcement, calls for a full stop to foreclosure on any HAMP-eligible property, whether the borrower is committed or not. Additionally, ACORN wants servicers to explore alternative methods of aiding ailing borrowers, for example by principal forgiveness as opposed to forbearance. Furthermore, servicers are unevenly applying the program, they say, with little adherence to regulatory hurdles, such as in the inappropriate levying of modification fees onto the borrower.

“There is a great incentive [for servicers] to take part,” says Brenda Muniz, legislative director at ACORN National. “Yet there are no consequences if [HAMP] is violated.”

There obviously are a lot of details to argue over here, both in Treasury’s report and in the loan modification effort itself. But Salmon makes the key point. What really matters is whether foreclosures are slowing down. They are not. Until that unfortunate reality changes, the loan modification initiative can’t be considered any kind of success, no matter how skillfully the data gets presented.

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91 Comments

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[...] News Sources wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptThe Treasury Department’s report on the progress — or lack of it — among servicers doing loan modifications makes it seem like the Obama administration is keeping a close eye on its Making Home Affordable Program. But Felix Salmon at Reuters takes a second look at Treasury report, and raises some important questions. Salmon notes that the purpose of the report is “to document the number of struggling homeowners already helped under the program, provide information on servicer performance and [...]


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Pingback posted August 5, 2009 @ 2:04 pm

[...] The Progress on Loan Modifications Isn’t Quite What It Seems – The Washington Independent.comThe bigger problem, Salmon writes, is that the Treasury’s report “seems to have more spin than transparency.” How so? Well, the graph accompanying the report refers to “cumulative” progress made on loan modifications. And that’s just not [...]


foreclosurefish
Comment posted August 5, 2009 @ 4:26 pm

The Treasury will keep spinning the program as long as it can — its job is to make its programs look great. But you're right about reading between the lines and looking for the information that is missing from the report: namely, the foreclosure rate. Servicing companies can do all the modifications they want, but if they are not helping to reduce the foreclosure rate through modification programs, then the program will not be a success… no matter how many months of cumulative gains there are.


Name
Comment posted August 6, 2009 @ 7:17 pm

Can we all just forget about loan modifications? They aren't going to happen and even if they do, they aren't going to help. Prices are too high, and they have to come down. Let's all give up this notion that if only the banks write down enough mortgages, all our problems will go away. Then we can face reality and move on.


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Comment posted August 26, 2009 @ 10:06 am

I hope that things get easier for homeowners that are struggling to avoid foreclosure. Regardless of the number of trial modifications, struggling borrowers really need aggressive loan modifications to avoid re-defaulting, otherwise there's really no point…


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Comment posted March 19, 2010 @ 2:40 am

Lenders need to go a step further to correct the crisis they had a large part in creating. Loan modifications are the first baby step that needs to be accompanied by a mortgage balance reduction for upside down mortgages. Also, borrowers need to learn that inflation may in fact save them in the end, if they can just manage to avoid foreclosure while they wait.


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