rssThe Prophecies of Richard Berner
Thursday, July 09, 2009 at 2:57 pm
- 12 Comments
Politico points readers to the economic analysis of Morgan Stanley’s Richard Berner:
In a research note that’s been making the rounds of economics blogs this week, Berner declares that “America’s long-awaited fiscal train wreck is now under way.”
By “train wreck,” he means out-of-control federal budget deficits that he’s sure will finally drag the economy under — as if we weren’t already feeling badly enough about its shaky state.
Berner, you’ll remember, sounded the alarm about the first round of deficit spending that followed the tight budgets of the final Clinton years:
[T]here are those who argue that tax cuts alongside falling interest rates are the proper pick-me-up for the economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan seems game. He has endorsed tax cuts and took the benchmark Federal Funds rate down to 4% from 6.5% last December. … Adds Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley: “These tax cuts are a big deal. The tax-cut train has left the station, and it is clearly going to be stimulative.”
I’ll quote Paul Krugman:
[The 2001 tax cuts] didn’t seem to help all that much. Formally, the recession ended in late 2001, but most labor-market indicators continued to worsen into mid-2003.
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12 Comments
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Comment posted July 9, 2009 @ 9:07 pm
There seems to be some confusion about the role of POLITICO. It's a web-based *politics* newspaper/gossip rag. It serves as a place for information on politics–the talking points, spin, deals, twists & turns, ins & outs of the GAME of politics in Washington. Its value on actual *policy*, however, is nonexistent; it employs no policy wonks that I know of, nor does it do any evidentiary-based research into actual policy positions. I don't particularly see the need to factor their reporting on anything of policy sustance into the discussion. It's not their purpose.
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