It’s a Lucky Thing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Is So Astrategic

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Monday, July 06, 2009 at 3:51 pm

Could Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have a worse grasp on geopolitical strategy? Here’s the dubiously-reelected Iranian “President” challenging President Obama to “debate in the venue of the United Nations General Assembly” before a group of medical school deans in Iran, according to Xinhua’s re-reporting of an official Iranian press account from Saturday. But if Ahmadinejad really wanted to jam Obama up, he would read and react to this portion of today’s David Sanger piece in The New York Times:

The administration, meanwhile, has been preparing for two opposite possibilities: One in which the Iranian leadership seeks to regain a measure of legitimacy by taking up Mr. Obama’s offer to talk — a situation that could put Washington in the uncomfortable position of giving credibility to a government whose actions Mr. Obama has deplored — or one in which Iran rejects negotiations.

Now, if you were Ahmadinejad and you had a crisis of legitimacy after stealing an election and you wanted to outfox your American adversary, why in the world wouldn’t you pick Sanger’s first option? By daring Obama to take him on at the General Assembly, Ahmadinejad invites Obama to dismiss him, since, in the words of White House spokesman Tommy Vietor, the Obama team thinks “now is the time to explore direct diplomatic options, as with the P5+1,” which is the U.N.-backed nuclear-diplomacy track, meaning he’ll rightly see the “debate” proposal as a ruse. And if Ahmadinejad is interested in pulling such ruses, then he’s more interested in getting the United States to implicitly bless his “re-election” by meeting with him than he is in substantive diplomacy. I suppose no one ever accused Ahmadinejad of diplomatic mastery, but it’s still surprising that he’s not forcing Obama to choose between diplomacy and human rights.

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Comments

8 Comments

It’s a Lucky Thing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Is So Astrategic | The Lie Politic
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AhYup
Comment posted July 7, 2009 @ 5:45 pm

I think that you have to read everything he does in light of domestic politics in Iran and his messianic view of his destiny rather than the most clever strategic policy. I would guess that his goal here is to try and make it look like Obama has something to hide and does not really take Iran seriously.


Mikey
Comment posted July 7, 2009 @ 5:53 pm

I dont know, but I don't think he is stupid. To be honest, I'm not so sure Obama would win in a real debate. Ahmadinejad is suprisingly eloquent and very persuasive in person (even if he is crazy). Obama is really only those things when speaking and less so in debate.

I'm certain that the supreme leader has all but forbade any great foreign interaction at this time with such instability at home, and engaging the US right now would put them in a very weak position to negotiate if the US accepted, even if it did cause Obama to deal with an uncomfortable situation.


Where Is My Vote
Comment posted July 7, 2009 @ 6:45 pm

THANK YOU! THANK YOU! THANK YOU! THANK YOU! “dubiously reelected Iranian “President”"!!! Why can't other journalists get it through their head?!

Mikey, I respectfully disagree with everything you say. Ahmadinejad is many things, but eloquent and persuasive are not among them. However, if by eloquent and persuasive you mean able to lie and make insane statements with a straight face and condescending smile, then you've got it spot on. As for Obama, his terrific debating skills are, well, not debatable!

With regards to engaging the US, I think Spencer makes a great point. The regime's engaging the west would be a ruthlessly clever ploy to gain legitimacy. First, they would be waging a forbidding psychological war with dissenters internally by being engaged by the west DESPITE their fraud and their revolting human rights violations. Their disastrously disheartening message: “you thought it would make a difference if they saw. Well, they saw, and still we'll go and shake their hands.” Second, their engagement would only bolster the image they have been painting of the west as hypocritical powers who would shake hands with the devil in order to ensure that their interests are served. And third, they would create an illusion of cooperation with the dissent and a show of effort towards compromise since most Iranians were specifically sick of Ahmadinejad's isolationist policies. I agree with Spencer that he has done us all a huge favor by resuming his old monkey business. Thank you Antarinejad!!!


mithridates
Comment posted July 8, 2009 @ 4:29 am

He's stupid in the sense that a good politician is able to advance their own cause without giving their opponent anything to work with, whereas Ahmadinejad seems to spend an inordinate amount of time coming up with schemes that are easy to ridicule. It may have worked for the first term as then he was simply the frugal former mayor of Tehran that spoke in plain speech to the rest of the world, but the situation is completely different now and Ahmadinejad has yet to adapt.

There were some telltale signs of this last year and early this year too, as Ahmadinejad continued to talk about George Bush as much as possible even though a new president had been elected. He's also not disciplined enough to avoid giving his opinion on subjects he wants to talk about but without any political value anymore such as the Holocaust…and even things like Mousavi's wife's Ph.D during their debate.


Welcome | Project on Middle East Democracy
Pingback posted July 8, 2009 @ 3:43 pm

[...] At the Washington Independent, Spencer Ackerman is surprised by Ahmadninejad’s “astrategic” stance toward America.  Ackerman suggests that the Iranian president is not playing his [...]


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