America Unable to Talk About Debt Without Losing It
Wednesday, May 27, 2009 at 5:17 pm
Let’s be clear, America has a debt problem. President Obama inherited a significant structural budget deficit (that is, a deficit that occurs even with the economy at full employment) from George W. Bush, which has grown substantially as the economy has weakened and the government has pursued countercyclical policies. Obama’s projected budgets get the deficit back to 2008 levels within a few years, but by that point, the American debt ratio will likely be approaching 100 percent of the gross domestic product — the level of debt that prompted the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s to cut its outlook for Britain earlier this week.
Now, S&P said that America is in no immediate danger of a downgrade (a 100 percent debt ratio would have to be sustained for for some time to earn such treatment), and Moody’s noted today that America’s AAA rating was safe. And while Treasury notes have fallen through the week, indicating that markets are worried about the amount of debt the government is unloading on private markets, the latest debt auction — of $35 billion in five-year notes — enjoyed the highest level of demand in three months.
There are a number of things going on here.
One is that private investors are losing their appetites for government debt — which they ran to in the flight for safety that characterized the past nine months — just as the government is pouring a great deal of new debt into the market. Another is surely rising levels of nervousness among investors waiting to see how large sovereign debts are going to be paid. And a third is the fear that efforts to juice the American economy will lead to inflation. This is certainly a possibility. But the language being used to talk about this possibility is growing increasingly outlandish. John Taylor, for instance, has been widely mocked today for making a basic arithmetic error in arguing that the threat of a seven percent annual rate of inflation over the next decade is greater than that posed by the credit crisis and current downturn. But Marc Faber takes the cake:
I am 100% sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation.
Hm. People seem not to understand that seven percent annual inflation, or 20 percent annual inflation (which would be quite a bit more damaging) do not count as hyperinflation. Countries experiencing hyperinflation, like Zimbabwe, suffer monthly rates of inflation in the millions, billions, trillions, and quadrillions. Really. An American hyperinflation would be impossible without a complete collapse in its governing institutions. Faber may as well have said that he is 100 percent sure America will be seized by a dictator or invaded and left in a state of near-anarchy.
It’s quite fair to worry about how we should pay our debts. But there is not much indication that current monetary and fiscal policies pose a serious threat to future economic health, given reasonable expectations about future economic growth and tax policy changes.
11 Comments
Comment posted May 27, 2009 @ 4:17 pm
You may soon (in a couple years, not decades) eat your words. Faber was one of the few mainstream advisors that appeared on financial television that actually predicted this crisis. He is way out of your league. Faber predicted everything from the subprime implosion to commodity prices falling off a cliff and he even predicted this rally we are having on March 6 (at the bottom). The same people that are advising you about the economy and the same exact ones who did not predict this crisis. Sure, there may be some trader (not investors) who are always making money, but they do not specialize in long-term trend forecasting.
It is already obvious that the standard of living needs to dramatically decreased, many localities are simply in denial. Obama can only bailout the states for so long, until the value of currency is reduced to the point where it is ineffectual. The living standard has been in a massive bubble since nixon defaulted on the gold standard. All of these government services that you have today and take for granted, ranging from welfare to educational grants to police enforcement and even underage drinking enforcement primarily more or less only exist in the US and a couple western allies of the US that also were living in a ponzi economy. Government services will be cut whether you like it or not.
Comment posted May 27, 2009 @ 7:17 pm
You may soon (in a couple years, not decades) eat your words. Faber was one of the few mainstream advisors that appeared on financial television that actually predicted this crisis. He is way out of your league. Faber predicted everything from the subprime implosion to commodity prices falling off a cliff and he even predicted this rally we are having on March 6 (at the bottom). The same people that are advising you about the economy and the same exact ones who did not predict this crisis. Sure, there may be some trader (not investors) who are always making money, but they do not specialize in long-term trend forecasting.
It is already obvious that the standard of living needs to dramatically decreased, many localities are simply in denial. Obama can only bailout the states for so long, until the value of currency is reduced to the point where it is ineffectual. The living standard has been in a massive bubble since nixon defaulted on the gold standard. All of these government services that you have today and take for granted, ranging from welfare to educational grants to police enforcement and even underage drinking enforcement primarily more or less only exist in the US and a couple western allies of the US that also were living in a ponzi economy. Government services will be cut whether you like it or not.
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Comment posted May 27, 2009 @ 10:03 pm
Okay moron. But what were you talking about before July 2007? Maybe how the housing bubble will inflate forever? That the Dow was a super buy at $13k?
Comment posted May 28, 2009 @ 2:17 pm
Mr Avent -
with all due courtesy, I think you miss the point. Dr Faber completely understands the definition of hyperinflation – all too well. And he is not alone in his prediction of a very bad end to this crisis, one that very well may leave us pining for the 30s. I suggest you check out John Williams's excellent website, Shadowstats.com, for a sobering play-by-play of where we are in this crisis, and where we are heading. Or the writings of Professor Antal Fekete, a proponent of the Austrian School of Economics.
There is actually plenty of hair-raising, stomach-churning evidence that “current monetary and fiscal policies pose a serious threat to future economic health”. You might start by considering the mind-boggling reality of the 600 trillion USD notional value of derivatives hanging over the world like a gigantic guillotine. Or the state of virtual lawlessness that exists in our largely unregulated financial markets. Two excellent free sites to get a healthy dose of reality are 321gold.com and gata.org. The evidence is there – you just need to find the sources that are brave enough and independent enough to speak the truth.
Comment posted May 28, 2009 @ 6:24 pm
Hyper-inflation is coming. Once inflation gets to 6% the genie is out of the bag and won't be stopped.
Comment posted May 28, 2009 @ 9:12 pm
I am an American who lives overseas for many years. From an “outsider” perception the US economy looks like a horror story. A very medicore political elite that feeds the American people the implicit message that natural law does not effect them (i.e. supply and demand equations), statistical lies on real inflation today that effect the middle class (health care/education rates for example over the past 20 years), an entitlement program present value liability that is anywhere between 60 to 100 trillion Dollars. Faber understand the the fiat money system has de facto been taken over by the politicians. Of course there are self-corrrective mechanisms, but that requires an elite and a society (left or right) that returns to honesty and rationality. David M. Walker, former Comptroller General, has been banging the drum for years but no one wants to listen. I give President Obama great credit to say “we are out of money” -but interest rates will sky rocket to “keep the game going”.
Comment posted May 28, 2009 @ 9:17 pm
Mr Avent -
with all due courtesy, I think you miss the point. Dr Faber completely understands the definition of hyperinflation – all too well. And he is not alone in his prediction of a very bad end to this crisis, one that very well may leave us pining for the 30s. I suggest you check out John Williams's excellent website, Shadowstats.com, for a sobering play-by-play of where we are in this crisis, and where we are heading. Or the writings of Professor Antal Fekete, a proponent of the Austrian School of Economics.
There is actually plenty of hair-raising, stomach-churning evidence that “current monetary and fiscal policies pose a serious threat to future economic health”. You might start by considering the mind-boggling reality of the 600 trillion USD notional value of derivatives hanging over the world like a gigantic guillotine. Or the state of virtual lawlessness that exists in our largely unregulated financial markets. Two excellent free sites to get a healthy dose of reality are 321gold.com and gata.org. The evidence is there – you just need to find the sources that are brave enough and independent enough to speak the truth.
Comment posted May 29, 2009 @ 1:24 am
Hyper-inflation is coming. Once inflation gets to 6% the genie is out of the bag and won't be stopped.
Comment posted May 29, 2009 @ 4:12 am
I am an American who lives overseas for many years. From an “outsider” perception the US economy looks like a horror story. A very medicore political elite that feeds the American people the implicit message that natural law does not effect them (i.e. supply and demand equations), statistical lies on real inflation today that effect the middle class (health care/education rates for example over the past 20 years), an entitlement program present value liability that is anywhere between 60 to 100 trillion Dollars. Faber understand the the fiat money system has de facto been taken over by the politicians. Of course there are self-corrrective mechanisms, but that requires an elite and a society (left or right) that returns to honesty and rationality. David M. Walker, former Comptroller General, has been banging the drum for years but no one wants to listen. I give President Obama great credit to say “we are out of money” -but interest rates will sky rocket to “keep the game going”.
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