NY-20: Democrat Moves Into the Lead

The new Siena Research poll of the special election in New York’s 20th Congressional District gives Democrat Scott Murphy a four point lead over Republican Jim Tedisco. Tedisco had led by four points two weeks ago and 12 points two weeks before that.

Democratic candidate Scott Murphy – 47 (+6)
Republican candidate Jim Tedisco – 43 (-2)
Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall – 2 (+1)

Murphy has moved ahead by consolidating the support of Democrats and taking 27 percent of Republicans from Tedisco. Tedisco has actually gained ground among independents, but it hasn’t been enough to stop a bleed in his own positive numbers — Tedisco is widely seen as running a dirty ad campaign. Also helping out Murphy: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s approval is at 76 percent, and President Obama’s approval is at 65 percent, and both have endorsed Murphy and lent their images to ads for him.

What’s this mean? Well, the election is on Tuesday, so we’ll know more then. But it suggests that the attacks on Murphy for 1) saying he would have voted for the stimulus, which meant he would have accidentally supported the AIG bonus loophole and 2) being a rich investor have not worked for Tedisco. The Republican had criticized the negative ads in the race and promised to run a positive campaign. Then the AIG bonus story broke, and he and the NRCC pounded Murphy over the story. It hasn’t borne fruit, according to this poll.

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TWI is on Twitter. Follow David Weigel’s ongoing coverage of the NY-20 race here.