rssPoll: McCain’s Lead in Arizona Shrinking
Friday, August 01, 2008 at 1:38 pm
- 7 Comments
Via Marc Ambinder, according to a new poll of residents of Arizona’s Maricopa County — the state’s most populous and home to eight of its 10 largest cities — Sen. John McCain’s once sizable lead in his home state has rapidly faded. The survey, conducted by the Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center, found McCain now leads Sen. Barack Obama 43 percent to 38 percent, with a margin of error of five percent. The survey notes that McCain led by 15 points in May. The poll also found independent voters were evenly split — with 35 percent for McCain and 34 percent for Obama and 27 percent uncommitted. From the Behavior Research Center’s report:
McCain’s narrowing lead traces not to any sudden up-swelling in support for Obama, whose support has hovered around 38 percent for the past year and remains at that level today. Rather, it traces to a decline in support of McCain, especially among men, registered Independents and Latinos. Simultaneously, the proportion of voters who are uncommitted rose to 16 percent from only nine this May and Ralph Nader drew a small but important three percent, mostly from McCain.
The most obvious explanation for the tightening up of the race is that for the first time in any McCain race we can recollect, the usual 20 to 30 percent of Democrats who defect to McCain are now staying home. Today, only nine percent of Democrats are crossing over to McCain while 11 percent of Republicans are crossing over to Obama.
A couple of notes: Though the survey has a high margin of error, due to it’s relatively small sample size of 401 participants — and it is not representative of all of Arizona — the results are telling. Maricopa County is a GOP stronghold — and McCain’s long-time home. Just the fact that he is not bludgeoning Obama here should be enough to alarm the McCain campaign. But his lead has evaporated by 10 points since Obama effectively clenched the Democratic nomination — this should give his Southwest staff night terrors. In his post, Ambinder includes a clip from a Phoenix newscast that raises the possibility that the state may be in play in November. It seems that every week brings new evidence this may be the case.
7 Comments
Comment posted September 6, 2008 @ 4:48 pm
Arizona, my home for many years, is a hard state to predict when it comes to the voters. There's a strong streak of independent thinking no matter the party of the voter's registration. McCain could easily lose this election in his home state if he rubs the wrong voters the wrong way…. I'm a bit doubtful how Sarah Palin will play in Arizona… it will be interesting to watch.
Comment posted September 23, 2008 @ 10:45 am
I am a 60 year old, registered Republican grandmother from Sedona, AZ. It’s funny how your world view changes when you have precious grandchildren. The reason I am supporting Barack Obama is because I feel that John McCain is out of touch with Arizona and the American people. As an Arizona Republican I received a fundraising letter from the McCain campaign. I sent it back with a note that says I will donate exactly the same amount that John McCain has requested in earmarks for our state. McCain’s call to fame is that he is the only representative in Washington never to request any earmarks for his home state. What does that prove? In my estimation John McCain has been the laziest representative in Washington in the last 26 years! To me it shows that in McCain’s mind Arizona does not need any assistance from Washington. He is happy to see all the tax dollars that we send to DC go to other states. Arizona has Indian Reservations with unemployment over 60%. Wouldn’t a call center in Indian Country be better then one in INDIA? We have beautiful rural areas that would greatly benefit from an increase in tourism. McCain’s lack of concern for Arizona shows that when John and Cindy fly over our state in their private plane that they do not pay attention to the people that live outside of Scottsdale. Lets see if in November the citizens of Arizona will send him a message and not vote for him. So this educated, white, Christian, Republican grandmother will be donating, ZERO, NOTHING, NONE, NADA! To the McCain Campaign. I did donate to the Obama campaign….
Comment posted September 29, 2008 @ 7:35 am
The Choice is Simple:
If you want
EXPERIENCE AT GETTING IT WRONG,
Vote for McCain.
If you want,
JUDGEMENT AT GETTING IT RIGHT,
Vote for Obama.
Comment posted September 29, 2008 @ 10:50 am
My cousin down in Arizona says that real die hard republicans are starting to talk about Obama, as where before they never would have. that just like us in Nebrasa, they are worried about mccains age and health and they just don't think Sarah Palin has what it takes to lead in war time/ or foreign knowledge. she actually scared this old lady! I'm kind of like jack cafferity, It's time to come out and say it about this terrible pick Mccain has done! If this is his idea of how ready he is to lead, than he set the bar way to low and where not going to crawl into the gutter to vote for him. Well keep our feet on dry land , thank you and vote for the guy that was smart enough to choose a intelligent/educated V.P, who could lead on day one, If something happened to Obama(God forbid)
Comment posted September 29, 2008 @ 2:35 pm
The Choice is Simple:
If you want
EXPERIENCE AT GETTING IT WRONG,
Vote for McCain.
If you want,
JUDGEMENT AT GETTING IT RIGHT,
Vote for Obama.
Comment posted September 29, 2008 @ 5:50 pm
My cousin down in Arizona says that real die hard republicans are starting to talk about Obama, as where before they never would have. that just like us in Nebrasa, they are worried about mccains age and health and they just don't think Sarah Palin has what it takes to lead in war time/ or foreign knowledge. she actually scared this old lady! I'm kind of like jack cafferity, It's time to come out and say it about this terrible pick Mccain has done! If this is his idea of how ready he is to lead, than he set the bar way to low and where not going to crawl into the gutter to vote for him. Well keep our feet on dry land , thank you and vote for the guy that was smart enough to choose a intelligent/educated V.P, who could lead on day one, If something happened to Obama(God forbid)
Comment posted August 13, 2010 @ 6:11 am
Parabéns a toda a equipe do blog. são todos abençoados.
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