Win the Iraqi Morning, Win the Iraqi Afternoon

The final results of the Iraqi provincial elections are in. Musings on Iraq, the breakaway blog of the prov-elections — Democracy Arsenal’s Ilan Goldenberg once lamented that there’s no Nate Silver for Iraq, but Musings comes close — has a digestible breakdown of Winners, Losers, and What It All Means that would get Mike Allen’s thumbs-up. Most notably from the perspective of an inter-Sunni breakdown in Anbar Province, which had the potential to flare into violence: after election overseers nullified several fraudulent ballot boxes, the party of the Awakening Councils racked up a narrow victory.

Anbar (29 seats)
1. Awakening of Iraq and Independents – Sheikh Abu Risha: 8
2. Iraq National Project – al-Mutlaq: 6
2. Alliance of Intellectuals and Tribes – Iraqi Islamic Party: 6
4. National Movement for Development and Reform – al-Karbouli: 3
5. Iraqi National List – Allawi: 2
5. Iraqi Tribes List – Sheikh al-Hayes: 2
5. Iraqi National Unity: 2

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s U.S.-and-Iranian-backed Da’wa Party — ah, sweet irony — won decisively in southern Iraq, as expected, but not so heavily as to prevent Da’wa from running the provinces outside a coalition with the rival Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, as Gina Chon of the Wall Street Journal explains, though other reports indicate the Da’wa Party may reach out to the Sadrists in some provinces.