rssCOINLord: We Can Negotiate with 90 Percent of the Afghan Insurgency
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 5:30 pm
- 2 Comments
Counterinsurgency made-man Dave Kilcullen — you remember him: counterinsurgency adviser to David Petraeus and Condoleezza Rice — has expressed skepticism about negotiating with the Taliban in the past. But that may have been a definitional issue, whereby ‘Taliban’ works as a stand-in for ‘Afghan insurgency.’ Because in an interview with Reuters, via Small Wars Journal, Kilcullen suggests that a massive amount of the insurgency — everyone who isn’t in Mullah Omar’s Quetta-based clique, basically — are people with whom the United States and the Afghan government can cut deals. Here’s what he told a Reuters reporter who asked if the United States should negotiate with the Taliban:
The answer to that question depends on who you think the Taliban are. I’ve had tribal leaders and Afghan government officials at the province and district level tell me that 90 percent of the people we call Taliban are actually tribal fighters or Pashtun nationalists or people pursuing their own agendas. Less than 10 percent are ideologically aligned with the Quetta shura (a Taliban leadership council) or al Qaeda.
I would divide the enemy in Afghanistan into two very broad categories, people who are directly aligned with the Quetta shura or al Qaeda. Those people are probably beyond negotiating and I don’t think we’d gain anything significant from trying to negotiate with them.”
The others are almost certainly reconcilable under some circumstances.
Laura Rozen reports that Kilcullen is literally going to have dinner tonight with Vice President Joe Biden. Watch what Biden has to say about this in the coming days.
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2 Comments
Comment posted March 27, 2009 @ 12:47 pm
In Iraq WE CREATED the insurgency going in intel blind, language deaf and cuture dumb. We were too few so we mechanized to “show prresence.” That made us vulnerable, so we tried to kill wasps with a cannon. All we did was create more wasps with our humiliation and destruction of Iraq. An army is a crude and dumb killing machine not a police force. Bush ended the Saddam welfare state and replaced it with corporate crooks who imported Bangladeshis to provide US forces overpriced shotty services. Unemployment in Iraq became 80%, leaving them with no other job but insurgent funded by Saudis/Kuwaitis of Ba'athist/Sunni imsurgency. Iran reacted by funding all Shia militias, including Baghdad Gov. In Afghanistan we are caught between India and Pakistan, Russia and China– all members of the SHANGHAI ACCORD. Again, we are using force to kill because we are afraid of dying. The insurgents are sacrificing themselves to kill as many of us as they can before we kill them. We act out of fear, they out of revenge– we will lose because we are casualties sensitive. Now this is becoming Obama's War, exactly what Bush hoped for. The only way out is to give it to India, Pakistan and rest of Shanghai Accord to settle. Don't fear attack on US because 9/11 would never have happened if we had obeyed laws from 1970s when a lot of skyjackings: to make pilot cabin impenetrable and 2 skymarshalls on every plane. Both laws were disobeyed by airlines and four planes were taken over in ten minutes. We can offer to train 30,000 Afghan policemen in US for three years, bringing here with familes and parents to be safe. The families stay safe in US for 2-3 years more while they go back to be police. While in US they learn to read, math, tech skills and practical police investigation. It will cost a lot but less than this endless war that makes wore Jihadis with every drone missile fired.
Comment posted March 27, 2009 @ 7:47 pm
In Iraq WE CREATED the insurgency going in intel blind, language deaf and cuture dumb. We were too few so we mechanized to “show prresence.” That made us vulnerable, so we tried to kill wasps with a cannon. All we did was create more wasps with our humiliation and destruction of Iraq. An army is a crude and dumb killing machine not a police force. Bush ended the Saddam welfare state and replaced it with corporate crooks who imported Bangladeshis to provide US forces overpriced shotty services. Unemployment in Iraq became 80%, leaving them with no other job but insurgent funded by Saudis/Kuwaitis of Ba'athist/Sunni imsurgency. Iran reacted by funding all Shia militias, including Baghdad Gov. In Afghanistan we are caught between India and Pakistan, Russia and China– all members of the SHANGHAI ACCORD. Again, we are using force to kill because we are afraid of dying. The insurgents are sacrificing themselves to kill as many of us as they can before we kill them. We act out of fear, they out of revenge– we will lose because we are casualties sensitive. Now this is becoming Obama's War, exactly what Bush hoped for. The only way out is to give it to India, Pakistan and rest of Shanghai Accord to settle. Don't fear attack on US because 9/11 would never have happened if we had obeyed laws from 1970s when a lot of skyjackings: to make pilot cabin impenetrable and 2 skymarshalls on every plane. Both laws were disobeyed by airlines and four planes were taken over in ten minutes. We can offer to train 30,000 Afghan policemen in US for three years, bringing here with familes and parents to be safe. The families stay safe in US for 2-3 years more while they go back to be police. While in US they learn to read, math, tech skills and practical police investigation. It will cost a lot but less than this endless war that makes wore Jihadis with every drone missile fired.
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