Rasmussen, the Only Poll that Matters

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Wednesday, February 18, 2009 at 12:30 am

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Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports

Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports

Last week, as they’ve done every week for nearly two years, New Jersey-based Rasmussen Reports cycled a question about Congress into its nightly political tracking poll. Over two nights, around 1000 voters (they must be voters, or say they are, to be included in the poll) were asked by an automated, voice-activated pollster whether they they would support a Democratic candidate or a Republican candidate for Congress, were the election held today.

Image by: Matt Mahurin

Image by: Matt Mahurin

The result was surprisingly close. Only 40 percent of the voters who talked to Rasmussen Reports said they’d support the Democrats, while 39 percent said they’d support the Republicans. “Are Republicans winning the public relations battle over spending in the $800-billion-plus economic stimulus package?” asked company founder and publisher Scott Rasmussen in the company’s news release. “This marks the lowest level of support for the Democrats in tracking history and is the closest the two parties have been on the generic ballot.”

The question, the result, and the carnival barker spin-all are trademarks of Rasmussen Reports, a pollster that has become ubiquitous in the conversation of Republicans and conservative pundits. It is not a partisan polling firm, and it is not hired to ask partisan questions the way that, for example, John Zogby was hired to test the mocking anti-Obama questions of a conservative radio host. Rasmussen is influential because its carefully crafted questions that produce answers that conservatives like — 59 percent of voters agreeing with Ronald Reagan’s view of big government, a 10-point plurality of voters trusting their economic judgment over President Obama’s — are bolstered by highly accurate campaign polling. The result is that polls with extremely favorable numbers for Republican stances leap into the public arena every week, quickly becoming accepted wisdom.

Rasmussen and three members of his staff meet every morning to discuss what questions they can add to their daily tracking polls of politics, consumer confidence, and consumer spending. “If you were working at an old newspaper,” explained Rasmussen in a Monday telephone interview, “you’d ask a question and assign reporters to find out what people were thinking. That’s what we do with our polls; we say, let’s take the temperature of this issue or that issue.”

While those news-cycle-dependent questions bring plenty of attention to the company, the rolling congressional “generic ballot” poll provided a good example of Rasmussen’s influence. On “The Beltway Boys,” the Saturday evening Fox News show that Weekly Standard editor Fred Barnes co-hosts with Mort Kondracke, Barnes cited Rasmussen as proof that Republicans were winning the stimulus message war. “Look where Republicans come out,” said Barnes. “They come out one point behind the Democrats. The Democrats have only a one-point lead!”

On Sunday, Cokie Roberts cited the same numbers to explain to her fellow “This Week” panelists why Republicans opposed the stimulus. “They’re… looking at polls that are showing them about even with Democrats in the generic congressional match up,” said Roberts. Neither she nor Barnes cited Rasmussen by name — the polling result, mentioned frequently by Republicans, had become part of conventional wisdom.

Other pollsters, whose results sometimes vary greatly from Rasmussen’s, respect the rival firm’s process and its ability to grab headlines. Brent Goldrick, a vice president at Financial Dynamics who conducts the monthly Hotline-Diageo poll, was surprised at the closeness of Rasmussen’s generic ballot poll. His most recent poll, conducted in the days after President Barack Obama’s inauguration, gave Democrats a 46-22 lead in the Congressional generic ballot, and gave Democrats in Congress an approval rating 23 points higher than the Republicans. “As the Republicans have become a little more engaged in the policy debate,” said Goldrick, “it doesn’t surprise me that numbers would come up from 22 percent.”

It’s hard for pollsters to knock Rasmussen’s accuracy, especially its election polling. The final pre-election Hotline-Diageo poll had given Barack Obama a 50-45 point lead over John McCain, while the final Rasmussen Reports poll gave Obama a 52-46 lead. Both were close to the result, but Rasmussen was closest.

But where Rasmussen Reports really distinguishes itself, and the reason it’s so often cited by conservatives, is in its issue polling. Before the stimulus debate began, Rasmussen asked voters whether they’d favor stimulus plans that consisted entirely of tax cuts or entirely of spending. Tax cuts won every time, and Republicans began citing this when they argued for a tax-cut-only stimulus package.

Every week that the economic stimulus package was being debated by Congress, Rasmussen asked voters whether they “favor[ed] or oppose[ed] the economic recovery package proposed by Barack Obama and the Congressional Democrats.” While other pollsters, such as Gallup and CBS News, found stimulus support rising as high as 60 percent, Rasmussen never saw it rise above 45 percent. It was the only pollster to find support for the plan falling below opposition, in a poll conducted on February 2 and 3. Not only did Bill Kristol get an early look at the data and use it to make the case against the plan, Republicans such as Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) cited Rasmussen to argue that support for the Democratic version of the stimulus was tumbling. At a Feb. 10 briefing, Pence quibbled with a reporter who cited Gallup instead of Rasmussen.

“If we’re gonna talk polls for a minute,” said Pence, “and in the communications shop at a conference we occasionally look at polls, is support for the stimulus bill has been dropping ever week since it was first introduced. I expect there’ll be more polls that come out that demonstrate that public support is continuing to drop using the same methods and the same research.” A poll being conducted that day and the day after would actually reveal that President Obama’s campaign for the stimulus was driving its support back up into the mid-40s. Still, the Rasmussen poll, buttressing other media polls that showed stimulus support lagging the president’s own ratings, was invaluable to Republican arguments that they were standing with the country against an unpopular bill.

Scott Rasmussen is well aware of how Republicans use his polling to make their arguments. “Republicans right now are citing our polls more than Democrats because it’s in their interest to do so,” he said on Monday. “I would not consider myself a political conservative — that implies an alignment with Washington politics that I don’t think I have.”

But in the early days of his polling firm, when it was named Rasmussen Research, Rasmussen balanced a cold analysis of politics and consumer opinion with advocacy for some conservative views. For a short time around the 2000 elections he wrote a column for WorldNetDaily, once arguing that President Bill Clinton had “ratified the Reagan Revolution” by declaring the end of big government in Clinton’s 1996 State of the Union speech. “From that moment forward,” wrote Rasmussen, “both Republicans and Democrats began to fight over their policy differences within the political framework created by America’s voters and articulated by President Reagan.”

In other columns, and in a 2001 company-published book titled A Better Deal! Social Security Choice, Rasmussen made the case for privatizing the nation’s oldest entitlement program. “In fact, 46 percent of American adults say that relying on the government is riskier than letting workers invest for their own retirement,” wrote Rasmussen in a Jan. 10, 2001 column arguing that incoming President Bush should push for private accounts. “Just 36 percent say letting workers invest is more risky, while 18 percent are not sure.” In the book — not a huge seller, but promoted by Rasmussen at an August appearance at the libertarian Cato Institute — the pollster argued that “giving workers more control over their ‘contributions’ will put the ‘Security’ back in Social Security.”

Since then, Rasmussen’s business has boomed, aided in no small part by those “newspaper” questions that are blasted out to reporters and frequently buck up the Republican spin of the week. “Every pollster wants to promote his own research,” said Brent Goldrick. “It makes sense for Rasmussen to promote questions that are more newsworthy.”

That was the take of Phil Kerpen, the policy director at Americans for Prosperity, a political advocacy group that collected more than 400,000 signatures of opposition to the stimulus. “He’s cited more frequently than other pollsters because he does more than anybody else,” said Kerpen. “His numbers are at least as accurate as anyone else’s. I think it was helpful to us when it looked like there was a big shift in public opinion against the stimulus. We definitely used it to give our activists some more encouragement.”

Scott Rasmussen couldn’t say whether his polls played a key role in the stimulus debate — after all, the bill passed. “But there have been times that our polling had an impact,” he said on Monday. “During the immigration debate, I think our polling — which showed the public heavily against the Senate compromise — was part of the reason that the compromise fell apart. The Senate acceded to public opinion. We’re simply reporting on what the public wants.”

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Comments

142 Comments

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Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 12:32 am

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ajm8127
Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 4:57 am

Private business in public life again. It's just fodder for the BS machine in Congress on both sides. If you are interested in an issue, contact your congressional representative and tell them how you feel. Do not waste your time with an automated polling machine that calls your house and may or may not ask you questions designed to get you to answer a certain way.


News Nag
Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 7:24 am

Average citizens don't understand nearly enough about tax cuts versus spending and bang for the buck and multipliers to hold well-informed opinions, and in this financial crisis such polling is irresponsible and cynical. Pandering to the Rasmussen polls that exploit know-littles may make Republicans feel good, but it doesn't produce good government, and it certainly doesn't even help the Republican Party despite the polls' influence over the intentionally gullible major news media. People eventually wake up from the confusion that such media coverage instills and rebel against its purveyors, the Republicans and the MSM, who both richly deserve the criticism and worse.

That's the situation now, wherein the public hates the Republicans with a passion and distrusts the media who let the Republicans rain ruin upon the nation with complicity and with a patronizing/pandering attitude toward the public – corporate rule, in other words.

What happens is that Rasmussen, who clearly frames questions to produce results that largely fall within the narrow range of his conservative political positions (therein lies madness, especially during this financial crisis that his political positions created in the first place), exerts his influence to perpetuate the Reagan mythology of small government, which is the opposite of what Reagan policies produced. What results in the real world is huge riches flowing upward to the top 1-10%, siphoned vigorously from everybody else, the opposite of trickle-down, making a laugher of Laffer and total hypocrites and liars of Rasmussen and his natural Republican allies.

You're too late, Rasmussen. You already sabotaged yourself and your Republican freak fellow unravelers.


News Nag
Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 7:25 am

exactly!


Debra
Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 8:19 am

Nobody but conservatives give any credence to the Rasmussen polls, because they put the questions in such a way that it gets the response they want. Case in point, in their first poll Rasmussen asked if people supported Obama's stimulus plan and it received about the same numbers as the other polls. But then in their second poll they asked if those surveyed supported Obama and the Democratic Congress stimulus package. Not surprisingly, with the low ratings for Congress, the numbers went down some and Fox News was on the air immediately saying Obama was losing support for the stimulus. It's called manipulating the results, and Rasmussen is the best at it. They are just a Republican tool–they know it and so does everybody else.


djc-illinois
Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 10:41 am

re: News Nag

Apparently average citizens know enough to agree with almost all modern economists that tax cuts improve the economy while government spending does not. More importantly, every time tax rates have been cut the economy boomed–every time government spending increased it did not.

Anyone who thinks a polling firm can be successful by deliberating skewing polling results must have some screws loose. Who in the world would ever pay for false data? Polling results differ because they're based on sampling techniques and statistically they should differ within a predictable margin of error. Real Clear Politics publishes the average of all the national polls (which is a reasonable thing to do) and most reasonable media, like Fox News, typically report those averages.


stickety
Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 5:46 pm

I'm an avid poll watcher, and simply put, Rasmussen Reports is the most accurate firm there is. They've been DEAD-ON the last two presidential elections, and they predicted the results of the 2006 mid-terms very accurately.

As I see it, the only reason to attack Rasmussen is because they've recently reported poll results that contradict the infallibility of the Great Messiah.


KB
Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 6:20 pm

Two elections, two dead-on predictions. Being accurate is always having to say you're sorry. Remind me again of the last time CBS News or Gallup got it right. And if the stimulus bill was as popular as Gallup indicated, why were the Democrats so reluctant to do things at times of high public visibility? Why so much Friday night work?


pga301
Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 6:54 pm

Rasmussen was dead on on the Presidential election as the article acknowledges. That is really the only thing any of us can measure because it produces a result in real data to use to check methodology. There was another article I read yesterday about how people reject statistics that don't agree with their own opinion. they say it is skewed etc. Well he we have a complete article that confirms it more than proves Rasmussen is wrong. If it makes all you liberals and democrats feel better it is within the laws of a free country to ignore poll you like. Why don't you try that instead of whining that it isn't fair when people don't tell you what you want to hear.


Bill M
Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 7:03 pm

Gee Debra, they asked 2 questions, got 2 sets of data and both were accurate. What a news organization does with it is not his fault. How did Rasmussen manipulate the results? I see you're not letting facts get in the way of your partisan bile.


enjoy
Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 7:06 pm

Rasmussen was dead on on the Presidential election as the article acknowledges. That is really the only thing any of us can measure because it produces a result in real data to use to check methodology. There was another article I read yesterday about how people reject statistics that don't agree with their own opinion. they say it is skewed etc. Well he we have a complete article that confirms it more than proves Rasmussen is wrong. If it makes all you liberals and democrats feel better it is within the laws of a free country to ignore poll you like. Why don't you try that instead of whining that it isn't fair when people don't tell you what you want to hear.
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Steve
Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 7:32 pm

You've got to hand it to Debra, as she doesn't let facts get in the way of her opinions! Forget the accuracy that Rasmussen has displayed in the past – they are obviously biased!


dbutler
Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 8:15 pm

So this is a bitchfest and the author of this piece is jealous of either Scott Rasmussen, or Rasmussen polling? If you were trying to make a different point, then it was lost due to the tone of the article. I am still trying to figure out what the end goal was here. Plus, I was having a really hard time caring.


dbutler
Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 8:20 pm

To the person posting as Debra below, I believe you are insinuating that Rasmussen does “Push Polls.” I have worked with both Zogby and Rasmussen, and found absolutely no evidence of this. The only pollster I encountered that with, was an organization called 538, ran by a guy named Silvers. Could you post a link to that, showing a sampling of push poll questions that were used?


Tony
Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 8:44 pm

As opposed to the CNN polls which tell Dems what they want to hear. Only the trolls and koolaid drinkers watch CNN and MSN, thus their polls are 100% skewed


Sara J.
Comment posted February 18, 2009 @ 8:48 pm

Much to the MSM and Zero's dismay, no one believes the polls telling us our own common sense is wrong. Bullcrap that a large percentage support the Swindle Us bill or that Zeros approval is so high. Give the false perception no matter what the reality, that is Zero and Dems Modus Operendi. And rules for radicals #5
.
What's most laughable to the entire polpulation is the idiotic excuses given for market down turn and upturn. All upturns are due to Zero-even if he just spends the day breathing and all down turns are blamed on his agenda not being passed fast enough Ludicrous and no one is buying it


Cheryl
Comment posted February 19, 2009 @ 6:09 am

I think it is grossly irresponsible to come out and say “Obama's stimulus plan will not work, will not create jobs, will not help” etc. Is it healthy to question government? Absolutely. But, the biggest problem right now in our economy is consumer confidence. That is agreed, by all. So why in God's name would the Repubs come forward and declare the stimulus plan a failure before it has even had a chance? Because they need it to fail. Think about it. What if the stimulus, recovery, mortgage bailout AND Obama are a success? He will easily win reelection in 4 years…and they are desperate to get back in control. When I watch them on TV and see right past their motives…as do most. They are acting like a bunch of babies. I support my President. And, I am confident that in 4 years we will look brighter than we did after the preceding 4 years.


Mel
Comment posted February 19, 2009 @ 7:33 am

Agreed, and it will have NOTHING to do with BO's economic plans.


Mel
Comment posted February 19, 2009 @ 7:34 am

Seems like Rasmussen was the go-to for the last 8 years of Bush bashing. I guess it sucks to be on the receiving end of the beating stick.


Bill
Comment posted February 19, 2009 @ 9:27 am

Poll all you want. Chimpy Mc EmptySuit is going to do what he wants. He WON!


Dave
Comment posted February 19, 2009 @ 11:51 am

When the word “crisis” is used as a club against our citizens by the leader of the world to admit that what he promised “might” not work, then it is irresponsible to not proclaim the negative view.


MariAngela
Comment posted February 24, 2009 @ 11:09 am

Personally, though a strong Obama supporter, if asked on the phone who I would vote for, as the Rasmussen poll did, I would hang up. This is not the time for that question and I would suspect a Republican ploy behind it.


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Comment posted February 27, 2009 @ 2:35 pm

I think (hope) you're just mistaken. 538 does not do polling. They just aggregate polls released by other firms. And they were far more accurate in the last election that Rasmussen by itself.


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Comment posted March 2, 2009 @ 12:23 pm

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Tony
Comment posted March 2, 2009 @ 12:30 pm

Rasmussen skews his “issue” polls to the conservative slant. He does his campaign polls straight, to give him cred. Then he uses that as an umbrella to do his biased issue polls. And people have the same reaction as the author of this article, “Well,his presidential poll was so accurate, he must be playing it straight.”

Rasmussen doesn't play it straight. Ask him why he and his father were ushered out of ESPN, the network they founded. Ask him why, as the head of the Ocean Grove Camp Meeting board of trustees, he accepted state tax breaks on boardwalk property — one criteria of which was equal access to all – while denying same-sex couples the right to have their civil union ceremonies in the boardwalk gazebo.


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Comment posted March 6, 2009 @ 7:05 am

Good old Rasmussen Reports! Here was the poll question they asked this week concerning Rush Limbaugh:

“Rush Limbaugh is the leader of the Republican Party — he says jump and they say how high”?

Given that question, I am surprised that a full 11% of Republicans actually agreed.


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I guess you simply are not used to honesty and politicians who treat you like adults. I can see where Obama might be mistaken in your particular instance.


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I guess you simply are not used to honesty and politicians who treat you like adults. I can see where Obama might be mistaken in your particular instance.


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Anthony
Comment posted February 27, 2010 @ 11:49 am

i like to watch polling about deifferent issues, from multiple sources. typically, after all said and done, rasmussen reports are closer and more accurate then the rest. compare and contrast if you will…

they do a good job, well better then most :)


Anthony
Comment posted February 27, 2010 @ 4:49 pm

i like to watch polling about deifferent issues, from multiple sources. typically, after all said and done, rasmussen reports are closer and more accurate then the rest. compare and contrast if you will…

they do a good job, well better then most :)


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I got called by Rasmussen after someone for a joke put me on a Republican list. I answered the questions and then watched the way they interpreted what they got. The way they skewed it was transparently obvious. They are never going to get any results but those they support right leaning positions. It is blatently obvious when they call you.


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