GOP-Cited Economists Skeptical of Party’s Stimulus Plans

By
Tuesday, February 10, 2009 at 12:59 pm
Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and Rep. Mike Pence (R- ) used the

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) cited the Cato ad as evidence against the stimulus bill (senate.gov, house.gov).

?Republicans began this week on an upswing, confident that their unanimous vote in the House and lopsided vote in the Senate against the Democrats’ economic stimulus package were building back up their reputation as fiscal conservatives. Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), the party’s whip in the House, told The Washington Post that Republicans had received “a shot in the arm” by “standing up on principle and just saying no.”

The party’s opposition strategy is predicated on a big bet — that the package of spending increases and tax cuts being voted on Tuesday will not register economic gains. Republicans argue, instead, that their alternative bills introduced and defeated in the House and Senate would have promised more growth at a lower cost. But a source that Republicans cite most often to back up this argument does not, in fact, prove that their plans will work. An open letter signed by more than three hundred libertarian-leaning economists, many of whom reject the idea of any government intervention to combat the recession, reveals the challenge that Republicans face in building credible economic arguments against the new president’s agenda.

Image by: Matt Mahurin

Image by: Matt Mahurin

On Jan. 9, then-President-elect Barack Obama argued that there was “no disagreement that we need action by our government” to “jumpstart our economy.” In short order, the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank founded in 1978, began contacting economists who disagreed with that statement. “We knew who to contact,” said William Nikasen, who served as chairman of Cato from 1985 until his retirement last year, and who was tasked with identifying more eminent economists and Nobel Prize laureates to add to the list. “It wasn’t hard.”

Cato circulated a statement that read, in part, that “notwithstanding reports that all economists are now Keynesians and that we all support a big increase in the burden of government, we do not believe that more government spending is a way to improve economic performance.” The think tank rapidly collected the signatures of more than 300-libertarian-leaning economists, and as January closed it gave Republicans a heads up that the statement would appear in a full-page newspaper ad. The first many people saw of the ad was at a Senate Republican press conference, where Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) waved it above his head to make the case that the experts did not support President Obama’s plans.

In a Feb. 3 floor speech, Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) cited the ad as proof that “many leading economists” were “catching on about this bill.” The third-ranking Republican in the House pushed the ad again this Sunday on Meet the Press. “There’s an enormous amount of economists who think this is the wrong way to go,” he said. “Some 300 published a full-page ad this week.”

What’s been left unsaid is that the economists brought together by Cato do, in fact, represent a minority view of recession economics. Also left unsaid is that many of the economists that Rep. Pence, Sen. Wicker, and other Republicans have cited do not favor the House or Senate Republicans’ stimulus plans, or even the amendments that Senate Republicans were able to pass last week.

On Monday, a selection of the Cato letter economists from across the country were asked by TWI to analyze the Republican Study Committee’s Economic Recovery and Middle-Class Tax Relief Act, which failed in the House, and the $15,000 tax credit for homeowners, which was added to the stimulus via an amendment by Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.). Their opinions ranged from outright enthusiasm to, more often, head-shaking skepticism.

Burton Abrams, an economics professor at the University of Delaware, disagreed with the entire premise of the Republicans solutions. “It’s not clear to me that any kind of tax or spending is the right response,” Abrams said. “Sometimes, nothing is the best policy.”

Abrams fretted that one Republican proposal, a capital gains tax holiday, would simply apply downward pressure on stocks. Another RSC idea, a one percent, across-the-board cut in non-defense discretionary spending, struck Abrams as poorly timed. “To do that in the midst of a major downturn would be a mistake,” he said. “But again, I’m not sure any immediate reaction is a good reaction.”

Few of the economists said they liked the biggest Republican legislative success of the stimulus debate, the homeowner tax credit. In the words of Howard Baejter Jr., a professor at Towson University in Maryland, it was “more goddamned social engineering through the tax code.” Jeff Miron, a professor at Harvard University, called the proposal “completely insane,” as it’s “counter-productive to have, as our goal, propping up housing prices. It will end up costing us more down the line if avoid letting them fall to appropriate values right now.”

Baejter argued in favor of the across-the-board spending cuts, with the caveat that it “seems like a paltry amount in the right direction.” An effective spending cut, according to Baejter, would be “10 or 15 times larger than that.”

Several of the economists who’d signed the Cato letter disagreed with an RSC proposal to slash the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 25 percent, though they did not disagree with the concept. “In my opinion it should go further,” said Lee Ohanian, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. “Over the last thirty to forty years people in the economics profession have concluded that taxing corporations is not good idea. The rate most people arrive at, for an appropriate level of taxation, is close to zero.”

Lee Adkins, a professor of economics at Oklahoma State University, held the opposite view of the stimulus. “[Policy makers are] acting like this is the worst thing ever to happen to the country,” he said, talking down spending and tax cuts both.

“This is just not that bad yet. The best thing they could do right now is nothing.” John Dobra, a professor at the University of Nevada, Reno and fellow at the free market Nevada Policy Research Institute, argued that the economic crisis had been “overblown” and had not yet reached even the levels of the 1981-1982 downtown. “Capitalism is about creative destruction,” said Dobra, “and you can’t just prop up people who make bad decisions.”

Miron held an opinion rather rare among the economists who signed the Cato letter. While he opposed the stimulus package, he did not worry that it would “particularly impede” an economic recovery. “I think we’ll get out in six to 12 months with or without a stimulus. There’s the matter of all the debt that this creates, but if we recover, the impact to the debt and the deficit will go away.”

One of the Cato letter economists endorsed all of the GOP’s ideas for an alternative stimulus. “I like all the proposals,” said Peter Lewin, a professor at the University of Texas at Dallas.

On Monday, Republicans in the House Conference Committee did not respond to any of these economists’ comments. But the lack of robust support for Republican stimulus proposals complicates GOP efforts to push back when President Obama says, as he did last night in his first prime time press conference, that “most economists, almost unanimously” agree with Keynsian spending as a way of preventing a deeper recession.

“If the Republicans were in charge they’d be doing the same thing,” said Adkins, the Oklahoma State University professor. “The money would just be going to different districts.”

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Comments

36 Comments

grf67
Comment posted February 10, 2009 @ 12:50 pm

So what? The GOP also cites the 1% of the country's scientists who do not believe in climate change and ignor the 99% who think that it is real. The GOp can always find someone to say what they want for enough money.


suzyku
Comment posted February 10, 2009 @ 12:50 pm

Everyone should be skeptical of not only the GOP stimulus plan but also of the GOP! They are not only wrong about almost everything, they are too closed minded and small minded to see any other way beside their own narrow minded ideology that has managed to put this country in the toilet! Frankly I think they should throw the bums out and start something new with people who have some brains! McCain, Graham, Boehner, Kyl, all of the idiots need to be voted out and/or impeached!


Shirley Gallagher
Comment posted February 10, 2009 @ 1:14 pm

The American voters should understand now, why Healthcare,School, and other project that would benefit
the American people has not been corrected.
What we elected and paid for is a GROUP people who cares for them selfs only.
The GOP is all about power not People. I want to tell them the voters know what they are doing and
why. To the GOP'S. the Voters will remember in 2012 what happen in 2009 or 2010 if this economy get
worst. Stop playing politic and get down to business people are HURTING.
The voters have a President that trying to help Americans live a better live, but the Gop is trying to stop that
process.


c;laudia
Comment posted February 10, 2009 @ 2:16 pm

Oh please. If you say black to a Repub they would say white – if you say white they would say black. They are so predictable! I have just stopped listening to them. claudiatucsonaz


jwaynemoore
Comment posted February 10, 2009 @ 2:26 pm

As an Independent, I voted for Barack Obama with the hope that somehow he might work a miracle and change how business is done in Washington. He is young, intelligent, and pragmatic, so maybe he will be able to make a difference.

With respect to the current legislative power struggle, I believe that in addition to the spending and individual tax cuts, the value of which could be debated forever, the stimulus package needs to stimulate business investment to cause recovery and growth. A week ago I sent my 5-page recommendation to the White House and to key Democratic and Republican Congressional leaders via UPS overnight letter. The first and fourth recommendations would be opposed by the GOP; the second and third recommendations would be opposed by the Democrats. However, all four taken together would actually stimulate the U.S. economy and would require the bi-partisan compromise that Obama and the American public want. In summary, the four recommendations were:

1. Discourage executive compensation excesses by a change in IRS Code Section 162(m) that uses a ratio to median company pay and by adding SEC rules requiring full and easily accessible disclosure (transparency).

2. Make American firms more competitive in the global market by reducing corporate income tax rates to a level near the lower end of the middle range of OECD nations.

3. Make corporate dividends paid to shareholders deductible for corporate income taxes.

4. Pay the cost of the corporate tax reduction and dividend deductibility by:

a. Eliminating the special tax treatment of dividends and capital gains enacted in 2003.

b. Imposing a 35% corporate excise tax on excess compensation beyond the new Code Section 162(m) limit, in addition to it not being deductible for corporate income taxes.

A corporate income tax rate reduction from the current 35% to about 24% (in the GOP plan) would place U.S. corporations in a far better position for competing in the global marketplace – it would place U.S. companies in the lower middle range of industrialized nations instead of at the top end – THIS WOULD CREATE JOBS! During last night’s press conference, the phrase “attracting private capital” was repeatedly used by President Obama. This could be accomplished quickly with a corporate tax rate reduction AND allowing dividends to be deductible by corporations. A major reason that the financial crisis is impacting investment is the fact that the interest paid on debt financing is tax deductible, while dividends paid on equity financing is not. This has also created some of the present Wall Street problems. The investment mindset is now oriented toward appreciation of investment rather than true return on investment, driven by the tax code bias that taxes dividends twice. I would be willing to give up the 2003 individual tax cuts as a way to pay for these changes (and nearly all my income is from investments).


Fremon
Comment posted February 10, 2009 @ 3:48 pm

Obama has said that some elements of this program will not work or may fail. This happened with Roosevelt when he tried things after the great depression and tried other avenues. The Republicans have only one mantra and that is tax cuts. They are intellectually bereft of ideas. If the tax cuts had worked why are we in this financial mess? The Republicans have only been able to say the stimulus will not work but offer nothing of the possiblity of their plans not working. History tells us that they cannot be depended on to make the economy work. Democrats have had better economies per cent wise during their administrations. Reagan, Bushes 1&2 created more debt than all the other presidents combined. Why trust them to speak on this economic plan?


tomf
Comment posted February 10, 2009 @ 4:00 pm

Why is it that no one states the simple fact – it doesn't matter whether you increase spending by X or reduce revenues (taxes) by X when running a deficit, you still end up adding X to the national (our children and grandchildren) debt.

Why is it that no one states that to justify a major reduction in revenue (taxes) by specifying a minimal reduction in spending is disingenous (or dishonest). During the Bush years, he could have eliminated all non defense discretionary spending and he would still have increased the debt.


gharrington
Comment posted February 10, 2009 @ 4:31 pm

Republicans just don't get it. They need to live 6 months in the shoes of people who have lost jobs and can't find work. Ooops, I forgot, they have off shore savings accounts.


Geolee
Comment posted February 10, 2009 @ 6:48 pm

Just look into who funds the various “policy” institutes to know who will benefit by the “do nothing and let them fail” theory….and then check their names on the Forbes billionaires list.


Greg
Comment posted February 11, 2009 @ 10:42 am

there is no reason for all of this pork.. Tax cuts are not favorable, because the people who pay little or no taxes are left out…. hmm if you don't put in you shouldn't take out.. that is what is wrong with america… everyone has this entitlement issue. We would not be in this situation if people had the desire to work and live within their means… It is a tough pill to swallow but I dont feel for the single mom in forclosure.. why because if she is single and cant afford a house…… wait for it… dont buy a house….. your poor decision making should not be the governments or my problem. I have lived at my means for several years and saved over these years… If something were to happen an I lose my job,I would survive and beable to support my family. America needs to wake up and take responsibilty… the fall of every great empire is when the minority hads to support the majority.. look it up. we are quickly approaching that time. to many feel if my neighbor can buy a new car, I deserve a new car… I dont care if he is making more money than me… I deserve it. Well guess what, no one deserves anything, you need to earn it. America has become lazy and lost it's morals.


Jonah
Comment posted February 11, 2009 @ 11:21 am

Lawmakers in 20 states move to reclaim sovereignty
OBAMA'S $1 TRILLION DEFICIT-SPENDING 'STIMULUS PLAN' SEEN AS LAST STRAW
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE….

State Sovereignty Movement Quietly Growing
http://blogcritics.org/archives/2009/02/05/1833…

State Sovereignty Movement Growing
http://www.tenthamendmentcenter.com/2009/02/06/…


Matthew Yglesias » The DeMint Alternative
Pingback posted February 11, 2009 @ 11:49 am

[...] States’ long-term budgetary situation. Even the GOP’s favorite anti-stimulus economists have nothing good to say about this [...]


A L Burk
Comment posted February 12, 2009 @ 6:11 pm

I agree 100% GET TO WORK AND SAVE! Earn it NO HANDOUTS!!!


A L Burk
Comment posted February 12, 2009 @ 6:13 pm

FIND ANOTHER JOB JUST LIKE MOST WORKING AMERICANS THINGS COST SAVE AND WORK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


A L Burk
Comment posted February 12, 2009 @ 6:15 pm

OBAMA JUST SPENDS IT ALL ON CRAP LIKE ABORTIONS AND PAY BACKS WHO GAVE HIM MONEY IN OFFICE LIKE ACORN


DanielC
Comment posted February 24, 2009 @ 7:09 pm

Following are details of an alternative proposal Recovery Plan. Tired to hear another one?
I’m trying to broadcast this idea through the internet. On Feb 17 I sent it to the White House web site (http://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/), but …no feedback so far. I hope somebody will pick it up someday from the cyberspace, before it’s not too late.

Plan code name: “Cyber-Economy”, or short: CE plan.
The following it’s a briefly description of a proposed 3-step future recovery plan after the current ARRP will be proven “successful operation, but the patient is dead”. The CE plan it’s based on simulation (attention: not stimulation :-) -based economy in a so-called “Cyber-Economy” space. By the way, how sounds “Simulus plan” instead of “Stimulus plan? It sounds crazy, but – for crazy times- crazy names and even crazier methods.
How it will work? It’s simple as 1, 2, 3:

Step 1. The government initiates the mechanism/infrastructure for this program. It may invoke a strategic state department and the “crème of the crème” programmers, to create a powerful internet-based program for involving voluntarily individuals and companies. Participation may be stimulated by the government with “regular” tax-incentive methods. At first stage, it will not be broadcasted until fully developed and tested on a reduced scale micro-economic platform.
I’m not sure if it will cost a billion, a tenth of a billion or less. You figure out.

Step 2. The program is launched through the media. Each company willing to participate will login and enter their current operating plan and will virtually step into a virtual 120% OP, describing what they will hypothetically do if their OP would increase to say – 120%. A company may choose to increase their workforce, buy capital plan, increase inventory, increase the expenditures or all of the above decided by their corporate executives. It is also important that government-founded organizations (medical, civil, education, military and others) to order new equipment for research and other capital plan investments.
Individuals will get recommendations from the CE to invest money in the companies with a high rate of return from the CE database. Everything will be focused in getting a positive feedback in the newly created virtual economy. The Wall Street guys will need to look after new jobs because they cannot speculate anymore. Is Economics a science or a poker game? If there are rules of the economics that can be hard coded, then they will be hard coded and not left at the hand of speculators which may destabilize the trust in the economy and then the economy itself.

After entering the input in the nation-wide CE cybereconomy, companies will soon see their “virtual”stock rising and the flow of virtual POs from other companies/individuals in the network and will witness improvements in their economic indicators, virtually speaking :-) They may choose even to increase their OP participation if they see a higher return rate. People may try investing again after so many years and see by trial and error if one or another cyber-investment will really work. All – without losing anything. Remember, it’s just a game at this stage!

Again: this will be all regulated by a strategic state department which will create this huge database. Moreover, this department, based on the input from companies and individuals, will create software-automated “recommended” Operating Plans for every user in the program. Backed-up by other economic growth strategic departments, the “plan” will recommend the optimum growth based on the company resources and the cash-flow of every participant, all based on this simulated “cyber-economy”. Some car manufacturer companies may get a recommended OPs of 120% while some others which will have big government orders for energy sensitive projects, may operate at 200% as already initiated by the ARRP initiative. The numbers used in this document (120%) are just fictive numbers. The software program will look at the input/output slopes of the economic indicators and will calculate automatically the best operating plan for every company registered in the program. It’s expected that all the companies will operate at at least 100-120% of their 2009 OPs and everybody will report profits (including government). If necessary, for a healthier economy, the government may stimulate strategic “nodes” of the economic grid. This stimulus will be a fraction of what it’s on the board now (see ARRP) because the economy will run by itself after the next step which follows, which is the big “CE-day”.

Step 3. Eventually, if the plan looks healthy from inside (as I said- not too late) and reaches enough participation, it will be launched on the “CyberEconomy (CE)-day”: everybody will do what they have promised they will do, when they have joined the program. It’s not a “let’s push the button and see what it will happen” like all the stimulus bills. It’s more like “let’s push the button and get on target”. You know what: there will be lot to people who will start investing even before the CE-day just to speculate the momentum. And these will be the last days of speculations.

No cash injection, no tax rebates and incentives, no dictatorial decisions, no loss of trust in the economy, markets and government, no “wait and see” approach. All based on proven problem-solver solution which is simulation-based decision and why not: a little bit of patriotism.

Footnote: it will be highly recommended that all the companies will look towards domestic products instead of foreign products. Exceptions may happen and will not be enforced. Foreign companies are encouraged to participate in this program too.

Daniel Cismas
dcismas@hotmail.com
Feb 24, 2009


DanielC
Comment posted February 25, 2009 @ 3:09 am

Following are details of an alternative proposal Recovery Plan. Tired to hear another one?
I’m trying to broadcast this idea through the internet. On Feb 17 I sent it to the White House web site (http://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/), but …no feedback so far. I hope somebody will pick it up someday from the cyberspace, before it’s not too late.

Plan code name: “Cyber-Economy”, or short: CE plan.
The following it’s a briefly description of a proposed 3-step future recovery plan after the current ARRP will be proven “successful operation, but the patient is dead”. The CE plan it’s based on simulation (attention: not stimulation :-) -based economy in a so-called “Cyber-Economy” space. By the way, how sounds “Simulus plan” instead of “Stimulus plan? It sounds crazy, but – for crazy times- crazy names and even crazier methods.
How it will work? It’s simple as 1, 2, 3:

Step 1. The government initiates the mechanism/infrastructure for this program. It may invoke a strategic state department and the “crème of the crème” programmers, to create a powerful internet-based program for involving voluntarily individuals and companies. Participation may be stimulated by the government with “regular” tax-incentive methods. At first stage, it will not be broadcasted until fully developed and tested on a reduced scale micro-economic platform.
I’m not sure if it will cost a billion, a tenth of a billion or less. You figure out.

Step 2. The program is launched through the media. Each company willing to participate will login and enter their current operating plan and will virtually step into a virtual 120% OP, describing what they will hypothetically do if their OP would increase to say – 120%. A company may choose to increase their workforce, buy capital plan, increase inventory, increase the expenditures or all of the above decided by their corporate executives. It is also important that government-founded organizations (medical, civil, education, military and others) to order new equipment for research and other capital plan investments.
Individuals will get recommendations from the CE to invest money in the companies with a high rate of return from the CE database. Everything will be focused in getting a positive feedback in the newly created virtual economy. The Wall Street guys will need to look after new jobs because they cannot speculate anymore. Is Economics a science or a poker game? If there are rules of the economics that can be hard coded, then they will be hard coded and not left at the hand of speculators which may destabilize the trust in the economy and then the economy itself.

After entering the input in the nation-wide CE cybereconomy, companies will soon see their “virtual”stock rising and the flow of virtual POs from other companies/individuals in the network and will witness improvements in their economic indicators, virtually speaking :-) They may choose even to increase their OP participation if they see a higher return rate. People may try investing again after so many years and see by trial and error if one or another cyber-investment will really work. All – without losing anything. Remember, it’s just a game at this stage!

Again: this will be all regulated by a strategic state department which will create this huge database. Moreover, this department, based on the input from companies and individuals, will create software-automated “recommended” Operating Plans for every user in the program. Backed-up by other economic growth strategic departments, the “plan” will recommend the optimum growth based on the company resources and the cash-flow of every participant, all based on this simulated “cyber-economy”. Some car manufacturer companies may get a recommended OPs of 120% while some others which will have big government orders for energy sensitive projects, may operate at 200% as already initiated by the ARRP initiative. The numbers used in this document (120%) are just fictive numbers. The software program will look at the input/output slopes of the economic indicators and will calculate automatically the best operating plan for every company registered in the program. It’s expected that all the companies will operate at at least 100-120% of their 2009 OPs and everybody will report profits (including government). If necessary, for a healthier economy, the government may stimulate strategic “nodes” of the economic grid. This stimulus will be a fraction of what it’s on the board now (see ARRP) because the economy will run by itself after the next step which follows, which is the big “CE-day”.

Step 3. Eventually, if the plan looks healthy from inside (as I said- not too late) and reaches enough participation, it will be launched on the “CyberEconomy (CE)-day”: everybody will do what they have promised they will do, when they have joined the program. It’s not a “let’s push the button and see what it will happen” like all the stimulus bills. It’s more like “let’s push the button and get on target”. You know what: there will be lot to people who will start investing even before the CE-day just to speculate the momentum. And these will be the last days of speculations.

No cash injection, no tax rebates and incentives, no dictatorial decisions, no loss of trust in the economy, markets and government, no “wait and see” approach. All based on proven problem-solver solution which is simulation-based decision and why not: a little bit of patriotism.

Footnote: it will be highly recommended that all the companies will look towards domestic products instead of foreign products. Exceptions may happen and will not be enforced. Foreign companies are encouraged to participate in this program too.

Daniel Cismas
dcismas@hotmail.com
Feb 24, 2009


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