rssA Guide To Today’s Inevitable Iran-Based Shockhorror
Tuesday, February 03, 2009 at 11:34 am
- 8 Comments
It appears that Iran succeeded in launching a satellite into space as part of an effort to expand its ballistic-missile capability into the thousands-of-miles-away range. Noah Shachtman at Danger Room points out that the Iranians have a history of misrepresenting their military technology, but nevertheless, it’s a worry. I haven’t seen conservatives freak out and say that this means President Obama is foolish to explore talks with Iran, but it’s not even noon.
Anyway, SteelJaw at the U.S. Naval Institute’s blog makes this point:
While one presumably successful space launch (still awaiting independent confirmation) does not a missile force make, the fact that the Iranian program marks this success, that it is outside the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and is known to have strong ties with the North Korean and Syrian programs, bodes ill for future proliferation schemes. As the US and its European partners gather this week to review the way ahead for continued engagement regarding Iran’s nuclear program, this shot, coming on the eve of that meeting and near the 30th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution should give the assembled party pause to consider just what are Iran’s intentions, particularly vis-a-vis negotiated agreements and arms control.
It’s a good point. Whether the Iranians actually succeeded in the test or not, the fact that they announced launching their satellite on the eve of new nuclear-program negotiations is significant, and intended to put pressure on the western coalition.
But I’m not sure that SteelJaw is right that the test “bodes ill for future nonproliferation schemes.” It’s a challenge for them, to be sure. But consider that Iran has been encircled by U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan for the past five years, with the Bush administration dropping hints throughout its time in office that it might destabilize the regime as it did the two on Iran’s borders. Obviously, Iran’s nuclear ambitions go back to the Shah, so it’s not as if the United States in any way caused Iran to become more bellicose. But it’s an entirely rational decision on Iran’s part to bolster its defense capabilities after seeing the world’s remaining superpower adopt a more hostile posture to it.
And that’s a point independent of the strength of proliferation accords. North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 2002 and accelerated its nuclear weapons production in 2003 when it looked like the United States was going to overthrow the nuclear-incapable Saddam Hussein. At the time, many people worried that the North’s actions meant that nuclear nonproliferation regimes were doomed. But then the Bush administration flip-flopped, began intensive multilateral negotiations with the North led by Ambassador Chris Hill, and — with recent problems, to be sure — secured important disarmament steps. With Dennis Ross likely to explore bilateral dialogue with Iran, there’s no obvious reason why a similar round of arduous, frustrating, stop-and-start diplomacy can’t achieve similar results.
It’s true that nonproliferation regimes don’t look like appealing options to countries that perceive themselves, credibly, under constant threat. But getting rid of the persistent fear is the greater stumbling block to nonproliferation, not inherent weaknesses in the accords.
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8 Comments
Comment posted February 3, 2009 @ 9:41 am
Crocodile tears over “nonproliferation” issues are laughable when you consider that the United States was directly complicit in providing chemical weapons to Iraq to be used against Iran during their war.
The Iranians are perfectly entitled to build rockets and even missiles, and it is ridiculous of us to assume that the world will abide by our double standards just to suit us. Iran is a nation of more than 70 million people, larger than France and Germany and Spain combined, and heir to an ancient civilization. Why should they accept second-class status?
Comment posted February 3, 2009 @ 10:03 am
Have you noticed that Israel is always left out of the “nuclear danger” conversation especially when the subject is those mean, scary, evil Iranians?
Iran is a signatory to the NPT. As such, Iran is permitted to pursue a domestic nuclear programme. No evidence has been presented suggesting that Iran possesses nuclear weapons now. Likewise, there has been NO evidence presented suggesting that the Iranians are enriching uranium beyond the 3% – 5% U-235 level which is consistent with nuclear reactor fuel and not suitable for high explosive yield nuclear devices.
On the other hand, Israel DOES possess nuclear weapons today. Israel is NOT a signatory to the NPT. Israel DOES NOT produce civilian electricity with its nuclear reactor at Dimona. During their recent invasion of the Gaza Ghetto the Israelis displayed a primeval disregard and indifference to the death of civilians that bordered on pure Blood Lust. With hardly a second thought the Israelis commenced with a calculated program of destruction targeting both civil and government infrastructure as well as civilians and civilian residences.
Who have the Iranians attacked in the last thousand years?
I've never lost one minute of sleep worrying about Iran, it is an ancient and rational civilisation. The Iranian leadership understands perfectly well that even if it had a nuclear weapon their republic would be utterly destroyed by the vastly superior nuclear arsenals of Israel and or the USA ten minutes after it exploded a nuclear device against another state.
Conversely, the Israelis do not recognise the norms of civilised behaviour on this planet. They are capable of anything. Thus I am far more disturbed by the nuclear-armed rogue state that enjoys the endless excuse making and protections of the USA than I am by a non-nuclear armed (or even nuclear armed for that matter) Iran that the American government wants to demonise and tell us is a “mortal danger.” The mortal danger to the world lies not with Iran but 1000 km to the west on the shores of the Mediterranean.
Comment posted February 3, 2009 @ 11:38 am
It is about time that the US and its allied stop interfering in other nations business and think they are doing the right thing. The US sponsored the re-instatement of the Shah, murdered over 200 iranians in a plane on their way to Mecca for the annual pilgrimage and invaded Iraq and is destabilizing Afghanistan. The US wants to convert all other countries into slaves to its desires. Some countries, like iran, cannot and will not be treated as slaves. In case you have not noticed, slavery is over. I hope that Obama will realize that other countries should do what is in their interest, just as the US; no better and no worse. Isn't it enough that Israel is enslaving the Palestinians with the US consent and support? Sam Amer
Comment posted February 3, 2009 @ 7:29 pm
Iran isn't allowed to launch an indigenous satellite because they are a dangerous regime and under US sanctions.
Israel is allowed to violate international law and kill innocent children and women with American weapons paid for by American taxpayers.
Comment posted February 4, 2009 @ 1:29 am
Wow – it has been a long time since i have read an article that was not TOTALLY anti-Iran and written for the sole purpose of demonization and dehumanization of Iran in order to deprive it of its rights. Everything the Western countries want to deprive a nation of its rights – they simply demonize it in order to avoid expectations of equality and non-biasedness. Your article slightly hints at Iran's rights for a change, “… that it has the right to be thinking and preparing to defend itself, considering that they have hostile US forces all around them”. The more the US and British media bash Iran, the more I have sympathy for them. The more UN is unfair and unjust and bullys that country, the more I pray and wish that they build a strong military so that they are not attacked, invaded, and occupied like Iraq was – 700,000+ Iraqis dead, thousands of US soldiers dead, thousands scared forever, lives distroyed, pain and suffering caused, and a future generation of terrorists built. I am also so SICK of hearing about Israelis and all the influence they have in US Congress and over the President of US. I never hated anybody before, but the more I see these aggressive nasty people, the more I learn to hate them for their nasty one-sided bullying and non-compromising world-dominating, pre-emptive attacking, monsters.
Comment posted February 4, 2009 @ 12:38 pm
Lt. General Robert Gard (Ret) will be my guest on News Talk Online on Paltalk.com at 5 PM New York time Tuesday Feb 10 to discuss nuclear proliferation.
To talk to Gard please go to http://www.garybaumgarten.com and click on the link to the chat.
Thanks,
Gary
Comment posted February 4, 2009 @ 7:21 pm
Iran launched a small satellite into low orbit. This was done by the Iranian space agency, who have a web site, email, phone numbers, etc. I am sorry to say not one western journalist could peel themselves away from their sell-speculation-as-fact habit.
Call the folks at the space agency. Ask them about their budgets, long term plans, who they report to, etc. Then publish the facts.
PS. Iran has not invaded any of her neighbors in over 200 years.
Comment posted February 5, 2009 @ 3:21 am
Iran launched a small satellite into low orbit. This was done by the Iranian space agency, who have a web site, email, phone numbers, etc. I am sorry to say not one western journalist could peel themselves away from their sell-speculation-as-fact habit.
Call the folks at the space agency. Ask them about their budgets, long term plans, who they report to, etc. Then publish the facts.
PS. Iran has not invaded any of her neighbors in over 200 years.
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