rssMinnesota Recount: A Note of Caution
Friday, December 19, 2008 at 1:22 pm
- 13 Comments
For those of you who, like me, are obsessively watching the livestream of the Minnesota State Canvassing Board’s review of the challenged Senate ballots (Franken’s lead right now is 266), let me issue a reminder, lest you think that Al Franken is running away with this race.
Withdrawn challenges have not yet been processed. Since Franken withdrew about 400 more challenges than Norm Coleman, Coleman will make up significant ground once these are taken into account. Exactly how much ground depends on the nature of the challenges — a withdrawn challenge to an initial non-vote (when the election official decided that voter intent could not be discerned, or that the vote went to a third-party candidate) will result in no change, whereas a withdrawn challenge to a vote for a certain candidate will result in a gain of one vote for that candidate.
For example, let’s assume that half of each campaign’s withdrawn challenges were initially aimed at turning votes from the other candidate into non-votes, and the other half were aimed at turning non-votes into votes for the campaign’s candidate. In this case, if Franken withdrew 400 more challenges than Coleman, then Coleman would gain 200 net votes when the withdrawn challenges are processed. If, on the other hand, three-quarters of the withdrawn challenges were to initial votes for the opposing candidate, then Coleman could expect to net 300 votes.
With Franken’s lead currently at 266, the makeup of these withdrawn challenges could make all the difference in determining which candidate will come out ahead at the end of this challenged ballot review.
Then, of course, we get to the rejected absentee ballots, which are expected to help Franken, and the inevitable litigation, which will more likely come from the Coleman camp.
This election is by no means decided, although I still feel good about my bet on Franken, even with the 2-to-1 odds I gave our CEO.
Side note: InTrade‘s been monitoring the race, but their odds have lagged a couple days behind mine. On the 15th, they put Franken’s chances of winning at just under 55 percent. It took more than two days, and a lot of developments in Franken’s favor, for them to catch up. Now they give him close to 80 percent.
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13 Comments
Comment posted December 19, 2008 @ 12:08 pm
How did you define “win”.. The person with the most votes or the person who gets the senate seat? What do you do if someone is certified with the most votes but a legal challenge is successful and the senate seats someone but the state calls a revote?
At this point, determining the winner to an absolute certainty is almost statistically impossible, I believe. I doubt either will have a large enough lead to come anywhere near a reasonably conservative margin of error of 0.1%, and 0.1% of 4 million is 4,000 votes.
The recount should be summarily stopped and a revote scheduled immediately, draw lots, or figure some other tie breaking or negotiation out instead of counting them, then suing, then suing again, which either side will do.
Who cares if the law doesn't call for such a scenario, it's the most efficient thing to do to resolve the problem. Whoever loses obviously isn't going to accept that they “lost”, and they're going to use “scare quotes” around the “election” of whoever “wins”.
I will not say who I support because I know both sides will accuse me of supporting the other side if I don't because both sides would hate this scenario.
Comment posted December 19, 2008 @ 12:35 pm
I GUESS IF YOU RECOUNT ENOUGH TIMES FRANKEN WILL WIN. PATHETIC, MAKES ME SICK!
Comment posted December 19, 2008 @ 12:48 pm
Funny how when Bush did this in 2000 it was considered stealing, and the Democrats and AlGore were victimized; yet when Franken does it it's considered a victory of democracy. Guess it just depends upon which way your media slants…as if there's any doubt about that…
Comment posted December 19, 2008 @ 12:54 pm
I say, to break the tie, put them through the same grueling competition normally reserved for Ms. America. They will have to answer tough questions, and even perform a little floor routine. In the end, the most talented will get the tiara.
Either that or put them in the octagon. In costume.
Comment posted December 19, 2008 @ 3:10 pm
There is still time for the Federal Supreme Court to put on their Bush kneepads, grease up their coal chutes and from there pull a ruling that counting the votes in a fair and lawful way would hurt Norm Coleman's feelings and make him cry, like they did for Bush.
But the fact is, Coleman already had the help of the GOP's IT fixer to help Coleman steal votes using the digital machines that leave no trail to recount. Even with Coleman's crookedness Franken will win the legal and fair way and the people of Minnesota might get some good representation instead of a crooked placeholder elected by skullduggery and kept in place by sleazery. Conservativism is a conceit and a fantasy, a luxury we can no longer afford as a people or a nation. Time for a national intervention to break this addiction, a Conservatives' Anonymous.
Comment posted December 19, 2008 @ 8:08 pm
How did you define “win”.. The person with the most votes or the person who gets the senate seat? What do you do if someone is certified with the most votes but a legal challenge is successful and the senate seats someone but the state calls a revote?
At this point, determining the winner to an absolute certainty is almost statistically impossible, I believe. I doubt either will have a large enough lead to come anywhere near a reasonably conservative margin of error of 0.1%, and 0.1% of 4 million is 4,000 votes.
The recount should be summarily stopped and a revote scheduled immediately, draw lots, or figure some other tie breaking or negotiation out instead of counting them, then suing, then suing again, which either side will do.
Who cares if the law doesn't call for such a scenario, it's the most efficient thing to do to resolve the problem. Whoever loses obviously isn't going to accept that they “lost”, and they're going to use “scare quotes” around the “election” of whoever “wins”.
I will not say who I support because I know both sides will accuse me of supporting the other side if I don't because both sides would hate this scenario.
Comment posted December 19, 2008 @ 8:35 pm
I GUESS IF YOU RECOUNT ENOUGH TIMES FRANKEN WILL WIN. PATHETIC, MAKES ME SICK!
Comment posted December 19, 2008 @ 8:48 pm
Funny how when Bush did this in 2000 it was considered stealing, and the Democrats and AlGore were victimized; yet when Franken does it it's considered a victory of democracy. Guess it just depends upon which way your media slants…as if there's any doubt about that…
Comment posted December 19, 2008 @ 8:54 pm
I say, to break the tie, put them through the same grueling competition normally reserved for Ms. America. They will have to answer tough questions, and even perform a little floor routine. In the end, the most talented will get the tiara.
Either that or put them in the octagon. In costume.
Comment posted December 19, 2008 @ 11:10 pm
There is still time for the Federal Supreme Court to put on their Bush kneepads, grease up their coal chutes and from there pull a ruling that counting the votes in a fair and lawful way would hurt Norm Coleman's feelings and make him cry, like they did for Bush.
But the fact is, Coleman already had the help of the GOP's IT fixer to help Coleman steal votes using the digital machines that leave no trail to recount. Even with Coleman's crookedness Franken will win the legal and fair way and the people of Minnesota might get some good representation instead of a crooked placeholder elected by skullduggery and kept in place by sleazery. Conservativism is a conceit and a fantasy, a luxury we can no longer afford as a people or a nation. Time for a national intervention to break this addiction, a Conservatives' Anonymous.
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