SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — I’d like to follow up on Aaron Wiener’s post on the possibility of Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano leaving her current job to take a high-profile position in President-elect Barack Obama’s cabinet.
This is obviously a topic of widespread interest here in my home state. But Napolitano’s eventual decision, assuming Obama offers her a job, will likely be complicated.
First, Napolitano, well known as a centrist Democrat, is wildly popular in Arizona. A Research 2000/Daily Kos poll conducted in late October found 67 percent of likely Arizona voters had a favorable opinion of the governor. An Arizona State University/KAET survey from late April, the last time the question was asked, found 76 percent of registered voters rated her job performance as “excellent” or “good.” It is worth pointing out that registered Republicans outnumber Democrats in Arizona by around 100,000 voters.
As Aaron noted, Napolitano’s name is most frequently mentioned for the post of Attorney General in the new administration. Napolitano, a former federal prosecutor, would undoubtedly be tempted by such a position.
As the governor of a border state, she has been a vocal critic of the federal government’s failure to take the lead in establishing a cohesive, comprehensive immigration policy. This has largely left it to state and local government to devise their own patchwork policies — sometimes with troubling results. As attorney general, she could take a lead role in establishing a coherent federal policy, whether or not the new Congress decides to take another stab at reforming the broken system.
Indeed, The Arizona Republic last week offered Napolitano its blessing to accept a new job in Washington, writing that “she’s earned it.”
However, while this may very well be true, The Republic’s conservative editorial board might have ulterior motives. If Napolitano vacates the governorship with two years left in her final term, the position would be filled for the remainder by Secretary of State Jan Brewer, a Republican. President-elect Obama may prefer to retain Napolitano as a Democratic ally in a key red state.
Further consideration must be given to the fact that Sen. John McCain is up for re-election in 2010. That same Research 2000/Daily Kos poll found Napolitano would be an eight-point favorite over McCain if the race were held this year. This is consistent with the results of an (admittedly very early) Behavior Research Center survey from last year, which found Napolitano would be the 2010 front-runner by 11 percentage points.
If McCain were to retire, Napolitano would be tough to beat, with no clear Republican front-runner in the state to replace the aging senator. When all of the votes are finally counted this year, if the Democrats end up one or two seats shy of a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, Arizona would be a prime place to try to pick up a seat during the mid-term election.
One thing is certain: Napolitano is a rising star in the Democratic Party. But from a strategic point of view, it may not be in the party’s best interest to bring her to Washington just yet.
