Obama’s Pentagon-in-Waiting

By
Monday, November 10, 2008 at 3:07 pm
(wikimedia commons)

(wikimedia commons)

The rumor started to spread last week. if Sen. Barack Obama won the presidential election, Michele Flournoy would resign from the Center for a New American Security Thursday following the election. Friday at the latest.

It’s not difficult to understand why the talk circulated. Flournoy boasts an enviable resume. A veteran of the Clinton Pentagon, she worked on counter-proliferation issues before playing a large role in shaping the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review, an overview of defense strategy and its implementation.

After leaving government service, Flournoy took a high-profile job at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a prominent Washington policy organization, before co-founding the Center for a New American Security, an increasingly influential defense think tank, in 2007.

It’s not just Flournoy. CNAS, as it’s known, is widely considered a likely feeder for the Obama Pentagon, though the organization disputes this — preferring to bill itself as nonpartisan. What CNAS does not dispute is that, over the course of the past two years — overnight, in Washington terms — it has emerged as an energetic center for studying contemporary defense issues, including Iraq, counterinsurgency and the national-security effects of climate change.

Illustration by: Matt Mahurin

Illustration by: Matt Mahurin

CNAS fellows like John Nagl, Colin Kahl, Vikram Singh, Shawn Brimley, Nate Fick and Roger Carstens will likely be key players in the defense debates of the next several years — whether they join an Obama administration or not. If they do join the administration, however, expect counterinsurgency to be a major focus of the next Pentagon team.

“There are many good policy organizations in the current national-security debate, and the team at CNAS should be recognized for their important contribution,” said Rudy DeLeon, deputy secretary of defense in the Clinton administration. “In particular, they have helped give field- and company-grade officers a clear voice in the policy discussion.”

For years, Flournoy has been touted as the odds-on favorite to be the country’s first woman secretary of defense. While Obama isn’t believed to be considering her for that position, many in Washington defense circles are saying that she’s a shoo-in for an important Pentagon job, as is CNAS’s other co-founder, Kurt Campbell, another veteran of the Clinton Pentagon and National Security Council staff.

As of Friday afternoon, though, Flournoy was still at her desk at the Center for a New American Security. “She is still employed here,” said Price Floyd, a spokesman for CNAS. “In fact, she’s in the office today.”

Similarly, Floyd said he is unaware if the Obama transition team has approached the think tank’s leaders and fellows. “I have no idea. Not a clue,” he said. “If they had, the saying in Washington is those who know, don’t say, and those who say, don’t know. I don’t fit in that category.” CNAS fellows and leaders declined to comment for this article.

From its inception, CNAS has demonstrated an ability to “punch above our weight,” as Floyd put it. The think tank’s launch event, in June 2007, was at the baroque Willard Hotel near the White House — a favored locale for CNAS gatherings, owing both to its grandeur and its proximity to the think tank’s offices at 13th Street and Pennsylvania Avenue NW.

Among the featured speakers were former Defense Sec. William Perry; Sens. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) and Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.); Princeton University’s Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Philip Zelikow, then counselor to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The introductory panel was moderated by former Secretary of the Navy Richard Danzig, Obama’s chief defense adviser and a potential secretary of defense. A keynote was delivered by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), then the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination.

At the time, many believed that CNAS would be a feeder for her administration. Floyd disputed that — “we got that rap, that we were Hillary’s shadow, in-waiting” Pentagon, he remembered — and added that the goal of the organization was always to be bipartisan, but not bipartisan for its own sake.

“We bring people together,” Floyd said, “not for a lowest-common-denominator bipartisanship, but for pragmatic solutions for problems we face.” CNAS papers are often vetted through an informal peer-review process, with experts at liberal, centrist and conservative think tanks.

Still, some progressives have said that CNAS occasionally substitutes received wisdom for rigor. “I think CNAS’s work on Iraq, in particular, has been unduly tied to the conventional wisdom,” said Matthew Yglesias, a leading liberal blogger for the Center for American Progress, another Washington policy organization, “and sometimes seems more focused on trying to find ways to appear judicious and moderate than on trying to find solutions that are equal to the scale of the problem.”

Michele Flournoy (cnas.org)

Michele Flournoy (cnas.org)

Much as Iraq has shaped the defense establishment over the past five and a half years, so too has it shaped CNAS. Its first Iraq policy, “Phased Transition: A Responsible Way Forward and Out of Iraq,” argued against firm deadlines for withdrawing U.S. troops, but also rejected an indefinite commitment to the country.

While several fellows, including Nagl and Kahl, have expressed support for President George W. Bush’s 2007 troop surge, CNAS’s follow-up paper, “Shaping the Iraq Inheritance” — written by Kahl, Flournoy and Brimley — focused on how to accomplish a withdrawal of U.S. forces without leaving a political and security vacuum behind.

Floyd contended that CNAS’s Iraq position has become the Washington consensus position. We were able to describe a responsible withdrawal,” he said, “and, in essence, the discussion is how to do that. It’s not if it will be done.”

Counterinsurgency, however, is probably the defense issue most closely associated with the think tank. Before Nagl retired from the Army this summer, he was one of the service’s leading counterinsurgency scholar-advocate-practitioners — putting counterinsurgency theory into practice as a battalion commander in Iraq and helping write the landmark 2006 Army/Marine Corps counterinsurgency field manual.

At CNAS, Nagl put forward a provocative proposal to create a corps within the Army devoted to training foreign military forces in how to suppress internal rebellions. Several attendees of this week’s Counterinsurgency Leaders’ Conference at Ft. Leavenworth, Kan., openly speculated whether Nagl would be made deputy assistant secretary of defense for special operations, low-intensity conflict and stability operations, the key civilian Pentagon brief for irregular warfare.

Nagl is hardly alone. Kahl, a veteran of the Office of the Secretary of Defense, is another leading counterinsurgency expert, focusing on Iraq, to which he’s made numerous trips in the brief time he’s been at CNAS.

Fick, a Dartmouth graduate and Marine veteran of both Iraq and Afghanistan — where he taught at Kabul’s Afghanistan Counterinsurgency Academy — has achieved a degree of prominence in both counterinsurgency circles and popular culture. A book chronicling his platoon’s place in the Iraq invasion, “Generation Kill,” was recently made into an HBO mini-series by David Simon, co-creator of “The Wire.”

Fick and Singh, who served in a variety of nonpolitical Pentagon jobs during the Bush administration, spent the late summer traveling through Afghanistan. They became two of the earliest and most prescient advocates of negotiating with elements of the Taliban, an initiative since pursued by the government of Hamid Karzai.

Prominent counterinsurgents give CNAS top marks, and view the absorption of its scholars into an Obama administration as an indicator of the new president’s embrace of counterinsurgency.

“I’ve been following CNAS since its inception, know many of the personnel there and, bottom-line, have been quite impressed with their analysis and recommendations on the important issues associated with national security,” said Dave Dilegge, editor of Small Wars Journal, a blog that has become the virtual forum of the counterinsurgency community, in an email. “The thing that impresses me the most is, that while conventional wisdom has held that CNAS was the ‘holding ground’ for an Obama administration, their work reflects a nonpartisan stance that would stand well in any administration — Democrat or Republican. When it comes to issues concerning irregular warfare and a whole government approach to complex operations, they have some of the best and brightest.”

Floyd said the focus of several of CNAS’s scholars on counterinsurgency reflects the think tank’s broader mission to take fresh approaches to national security. “On the face of it,” Floyd said, it was fair to view CNAS as a counterinsurgency-heavy organization.

“But more important,” Floyd added, “is that it’s not so much that as that we’re looking at the current and future challenges of the United States. Right now a lot of our scholars have come to the conclusion that the best ways to deal with them are through counterinsurgency and counterinsurgency-like ideas.”

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Comments

43 Comments

-bwg
Comment posted November 8, 2008 @ 12:29 pm

I haven't been following the discussions about new military doctrine, counterinsurgency, small wars, etc closely but your article caused me to wonder–Will the role of counterinsurgency in U.S. military doctrine be significantly diminished if the U.S. gives up its seemingly imperial aspirations after the Bush presidency ends?


Captain America
Comment posted November 8, 2008 @ 8:37 pm

Great! Surrender monkeys at the helm.


anon
Comment posted November 9, 2008 @ 12:42 pm

I think Nagl would be pretty confused by what his job is from the first day – “deputy assistant secretary of defense for special operations, low-intensity conflict and stability operations” doesn't exist.

it's “Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations, Low Intensity Conflict and Interdependent Capabilities” Underneath him/her are the “Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Capabilities” and the “Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Stability Operations Capabilities”


Lisa P
Comment posted November 9, 2008 @ 10:21 pm

The economic crisis will not prevent Obama from pursuing the priorities he outlined on the campaign trail, said John Podesta, co-chair of Obama's transition team. These include extending heath care to the nation's 47 million uninsured, reducing U.S. reliance on foreign oil, and improving public education, Podesta said.

The election is over and America has appointed a new leader. The people have chosen “change” by electing Barack Obama for the next President of the United States. Whether the United States changes for the better or for the worse, there is no doubt that change is in store for our country. It’s clear that Americans believe Obama will bring a positive change to our country. We’ve heard many of the promises he has made to the U.S. from lowering taxes for the middle class to putting a timeline on the war in Iraq and trimming the federal budget “line by line.” However, Obama also supports the elimination of the payday loan industry. He believes that eradicating the payday loan industry will protect low-income and families in general from falling victims to predatory lenders. On higher ground, it will be a violation to our financial freedom if the option to utilize affordable payday loans is wiped out. Threatening our rights to financial freedom is not a great start to creating positive change.
The economic crisis will not prevent Obama from pursuing the priorities he outlined on the campaign trail, said John Podesta, co-chair of Obama's transition team. These include extending heath care to the nation's 47 million uninsured, reducing U.S. reliance on foreign oil, and improving public education, Podesta said.

The election is over and America has appointed a new leader. The people have chosen “change” by electing Barack Obama for the next President of the United States. Whether the United States changes for the better or for the worse, there is no doubt that change is in store for our country. It’s clear that Americans believe Obama will bring a positive change to our country. We’ve heard many of the promises he has made to the U.S. from lowering taxes for the middle class to putting a timeline on the war in Iraq and trimming the federal budget “line by line.” However, Obama also supports the elimination of the payday loan industry. He believes that eradicating the payday loan industry will protect low-income and families in general from falling victims to predatory lenders. On higher ground, it will be a violation to our financial freedom if the option to utilize affordable payday loans is wiped out. Threatening our rights to financial freedom is not a great start to creating positive change.

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John_Crandell
Comment posted November 12, 2008 @ 11:06 pm

I'd be more confident if this group had the capacity to include such perspectives offered by Mideast specialist Juan Cole or military affairs specialist Andrew Bacevich. As ever, insiders rule the day.


RecordChecker
Comment posted January 5, 2009 @ 4:48 pm

For the record, CNAS has a Bacevich Fellowship honoring rising thinkers in national and international security affairs; Andrew Bacevich's influence can be felt at the organization.


Reading the appointments: DoD « Later On
Pingback posted January 8, 2009 @ 6:43 pm

[...] Michele Flournoy, a co-founder of the new Center for a New American Security think tank — which has distinguished itself as a home for theorists and advocates of counterinsurgency, stability… — was tapped to become undersecretary of defense for policy, a pick that indicates Gates wanted [...]


The Activist » International Issues » Back to the Old New Imperialism
Pingback posted January 30, 2009 @ 12:55 pm

[...] So what does all of this have to do with the Obama administration? Well, Obama has been appointing COIN thinkers to important national security positions. Many of these people are connected with the Center for a New American Security, which could be to Obama’s imperial strategy what the Project for a New American Century was to Bush’s. The most important figure here is the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Michèle Flournoy. Once again, Spencer Ackerman has the goods. [...]


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Comment posted February 2, 2009 @ 7:33 pm

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America can survive as a supper power if they are going to change the old policy with more up to day policy. Think tanks or not the world people are very well educated now. The trick and treachery are outdated and counter productive for superpower like the USA. There are no free rides any more. The US Government does not have any excuses to deal with small South America countries like before. The American politicians used to call South American countries our backyards or Western hemisphere like their own. Today Chinese are the master of the region.
The USA can use its people resources to fix the world now. The combinations of the military powers with the Technology, Economy, and environment’s can help the humanity around the world.
There are opportunities for the people in the USA and the US Government to help build many “Economic Unions” around the world. The US government did help Western Europe and Japan after World War II. What is wrong if they are going to help us in Iranian lands, Arabs, Africa and other regions to be like Europe and Japan?
Project like what we are talking about could take countries to be fully functional. The US people will gain wealth and respect from other nations around the world.
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[...] 2009 par staillat Un point qui devrait amuser Justin VAÏSSE (ou peut-être pas après tout) est l’influence croissante de Démocrates “interventionnistes” (qu’il nomme “néolibéraux”) [...]


andrewwang
Comment posted March 28, 2009 @ 4:16 pm

The American people trust that Barack Obama will conscientiously address the various security issues.

Long Live President Barack Obama!

Barack Obama is a racial-minority individual and does not like racism:

It is opined that Bill Clinton committed terrifying, racist, hate crimes during his presidency, and I am not free to say anything further about it.

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End Times Blog » Blog Archive » The Rule of the ‘Experts’
Pingback posted May 12, 2009 @ 10:54 am

[...] a New American Security (CNAS), the freshly minted Washington think-tank that seems to have been granted the foreign policy franchise by the Obama [...]


Does Obama's new think tank 'Center for a New American Security' just more of the 'Project for a New American Century'? - Politics and Other Controversies - City-Data Forum
Pingback posted May 12, 2009 @ 7:42 pm

[...] a New American Security (CNAS), the freshly minted Washington think-tank that seems to have been granted the foreign policy franchise by the Obama administration. I have written about their [...]


Does Obama's new think tank 'Center for a New American Security' just more of the 'Project for a New American Century'? - Politics and Other Controversies - Page 2 - City-Data Forum
Pingback posted May 14, 2009 @ 9:02 am

[...] a New American Security (CNAS), the freshly minted Washington think-tank that seems to have been granted the foreign policy franchise by the Obama administration. I have written about their [...]


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Steinberg to Speak on China at CNAS Panel Next Week | GSA Schedule Services
Pingback posted September 16, 2009 @ 2:53 pm

[...] Secretary of State James Steinberg probably wouldn’t address an audience convened by the Obama administration’s shadow Pentagon if he wasn’t prepared to issue some set of policy principles for handling China. The Center [...]


Freddy
Comment posted December 8, 2009 @ 7:03 am

President-elect Barack Obama and Robert Gates are negotiating terms under which the defence secretary would remain as Pentagon chief in his administration, the Financial Times has learned.
Mr Obama, through an intermediary, has approached Mr Gates, who has served as defence secretary under President George W. Bush since 2006, about accepting the position, which would place a respected Republican appointee in his cabinet.
According to a source familiar with the situation, Mr Gates is seriously weighing the option. The two men are ironing out policy and personnel issues before a final offer could be made.
Mr Gates, the former head of the Central Intelligence Agency, has won bipartisan acclaim for his handling of the Pentagon since replacing Donald Rumsfeld in 2006.
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ameriloan
Comment posted December 9, 2009 @ 6:11 am

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ameriloan
Comment posted December 9, 2009 @ 11:11 am

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North Capitol Street » Blog Archive » Nagl: We Can Pull This Afghanistan Thing Off
Pingback posted June 21, 2010 @ 9:20 am

[...] president of the Center for a New American Security, John Nagl, has an op-ed in the New York Daily News arguing against despair for the Afghanistan [...]


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Fernando
Comment posted October 15, 2010 @ 4:38 pm

In January 2007, Flournoy cofounded and was named president of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), a venture dedicated to advancing a strong, centrist national security strategy. Prior to joining CNAS, she was a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where she worked on a broad range of defense policy and international security issues. Previously, she was a distinguished research professor at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University (NDU), where she founded and led the university's Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) working group, which was chartered by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to develop intellectual capital in preparation for the Department of Defense's 2001 QDR. Prior to joining NDU, she was dual-hatted as principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and threat reduction and deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy. In that capacity, she oversaw three policy offices in the Office of the Secretary of Defense: Strategy; Requirements, Plans, and Counterproliferation; and Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasian Affairs. Flournoy was awarded the Secretary of Defense Medal for Outstanding Public Service in 1996, the Department of Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service in 1998, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff's Joint Distinguished Civilian Service Award in 2000. In addition to several edited volumes and reports, she has authored dozens of articles on international security issues. Flournoy holds a B.A. in social studies from Harvard University and an M.Litt. in international relations from Balliol College, Oxford University, where she was a Newton-Tatum scholar.
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