rss20-20 Hindsight: Electoral Delusions May Have Sunk McCain
Tuesday, October 28, 2008 at 5:47 pm
- 6 Comments
Ben Smith at Politico takes us back to June 2008, when McCain campaign manager Rick Davis laid out an ambitious electoral strategy that included, among other things, a push to take such states as Connecticut.
For comparison, I dug up a presentation (PDF) by Obama campaign manager David Plouffe from the same month.
The result: The Obama campaign was spot-on in its assessment of its prospects, while the McCain people were way off the mark. Let’s take a look.
First, here’s Davis’ perceived electoral map, just four months ago:
Looking at today’s RealClearPolitics map (below), we can see that every single toss-up state is now in Sen. Barack Obama’s column. While all the “Lean GOP” states have held, three of the “Solid GOP” states — Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana — have turned blue:
Meanwhile, Plouffe was announcing the Obama team’s plan to turn these red states blue:
Lo and behold, every one of these is now in Obama’s column, mostly by substantial margins.
Another slide in Plouffe’s presentation indicated the states in which the Obama campaign would be advertising early and extensively:
Admittedly, a few of these are still unlikely to go for Obama — Alaska, for instance, effectively came off the table when Gov. Sarah Palin joined Sen. John McCain’ticket — but for the most part, Obama’s strategy paid off.
Here’s proof:
Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana, which McCain considered in the bag, now lean Obama by 7, 2 and 2 points, respectively, according to RealClearPolitics.
Connecticut, which McCain hoped to nab, is going for Obama by 19 points.
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6 Comments
Comment posted October 29, 2008 @ 8:02 am
Clearly Connecticut was only an option when Lieberman was an option…even though the McCain camp may have been underestimating Connecticutarians' antipathy towards Sen. Lieberman.
Comment posted October 29, 2008 @ 8:37 am
Thanks, Fiki, for your insight — and props on a most excellent and unusual name.
Rick Davis, in his presentation, argued that Lieberman's active and vocal support for McCain would potentially turn the state red. I don't think this was in any way contingent on McCain's VP pick. I agree that it was a bit delusional, since Lieberman would have a hell of a time winning reelection in CT if had to run this year.
Comment posted October 29, 2008 @ 9:48 am
Yes, considering that the state may be on the verge of ousting longtime Representative Chris Shays, the last Republican House member from New England, and also remembering Lieberman's downright lie to voters (even if they were Democrats) about caucusing with the Dems, and I think the McCain camp must have been inhaling some of the good stuff (something Lieberman, unlike many of the members of his old party, claims he never did. And you know what, I believe him. He truly is an independent that way.)
Oh, and where I come, my name is pretty run-of-the-mill.
Comment posted October 29, 2008 @ 3:02 pm
Clearly Connecticut was only an option when Lieberman was an option…even though the McCain camp may have been underestimating Connecticutarians' antipathy towards Sen. Lieberman.
Comment posted October 29, 2008 @ 3:37 pm
Thanks, Fiki, for your insight — and props on a most excellent and unusual name.
Rick Davis, in his presentation, argued that Lieberman's active and vocal support for McCain would potentially turn the state red. I don't think this was in any way contingent on McCain's VP pick. I agree that it was a bit delusional, since Lieberman would have a hell of a time winning reelection in CT if had to run this year.
Comment posted October 29, 2008 @ 4:48 pm
Yes, considering that the state may be on the verge of ousting longtime Representative Chris Shays, the last Republican House member from New England, and also remembering Lieberman's downright lie to voters (even if they were Democrats) about caucusing with the Dems, and I think the McCain camp must have been inhaling some of the good stuff (something Lieberman, unlike many of the members of his old party, claims he never did. And you know what, I believe him. He truly is an independent that way.)
Oh, and where I come, my name is pretty run-of-the-mill.
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