rssCracking Ohio’s Political Code
Monday, October 27, 2008 at 6:00 am
- 44 Comments
A Barack Obama barn painting in Ottawa County, Ohio. (flickr)
COLUMBUS, Ohio — A few days back, I was in the basement of the statehouse standing on a large map of Ohio, complete with its 88 counties, etched in the floor’s marble. I walked southwest and stood on Butler, a conservative red-meat county where I was born and my parents still live. It was home, or at least a representation of it. But looking over the remainder of Ohio seemed like staring at a foreign land, whose terrain, interests, habits and ways of life could be as far removed from life in Butler County as Zaire.
To really understand Ohio, you need a far-reaching anthropological knowledge that few possess. Sometimes, people “get it.” This would most certainly include the presidential campaign of Sen. Barack Obama, now engaged in an all-out assault to win the state’s 20 electoral votes.
Obama’s forces have hunkered down in every part of Ohio, including the more conservative southwest and southeast regions. That’s not what Sen. John Kerry’s team did four years ago when it focused on only the state’s three largest cities — Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus. Today, in areas where Democratic volunteers haven’t been seen by voters in a generation, the party has field offices with paid staffers numbering in the hundreds. Two weekends ago, Obama volunteers knocked on the doors of 340,846 homes. The farthest distance separating Obama field offices is 38 miles. It is an unprecedented effort to win over a highly unconventional state.
Illustration by: Matt Mahurin
To some, this Ohio campaign looks like a microcosm of Obama’s 50-state strategy. In truth, though, it is a strategy taken from the playbook of Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, whose 2006 victory ended 15 years of Republican rule. Strickland, whose campaign manager Aaron Pickrell now heads the Obama effort here, deployed an all-inclusive 88-county strategy, as did Democrat Sherrod Brown, who won a U.S. Senate seat that year.
A series of state scandals involving GOP officials helped the Democrats — including “coingate,” in which millions of dollars from the state workers’ compensation fund were invested in rare coins. Of the $50 million invested by GOP officials, only $12 million was ever accounted for. Meanwhile, Gov. Bob Taft, scion of a celebrated Republican dynasty, was convicted while in office of not disclosing gifts from lobbyists. By the end of his term, Taft was the most unpopular governor in Ohio history, according to polls.
“Brown and Strickland ran a true statewide campaign and won, and we’re following that plan,” said Obama’s Ohio deputy communications director Tom Reynolds, who was sitting in a former church in Columbus that has been converted into the Democratic Party headquarters.
Yet Brown’s and Strickland’s statewide approach most likely will not translate into a landslide win for Obama in Ohio. While Obama leads Sen. John McCain by a slim margin, all indications are that this election will be as close as the previous two presidential contests. That’s because there are districts that will not elect a Democrat. Trust me on this. If Obama can get even a toehold in a Republican district or, at the very least, contain his margin of defeat in it, he simply has a better chance in a race that promises to be tight.
“We’ve got people running the campaign … who helped Strickland crack the code in this state,” said David Wilhelm, Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign manager and former chairman of the Democratic National Committee. “They understood you’ve got to campaign everywhere. … Strickland ran a campaign that talked about bread-and-butter issues where he spoke plainly to everyone. Sherrod ran on this idea of economic populism that is central to his image as a public servant.”
The Obama team has also adopted some of the tactics used by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who crushed him in the primary here.
“They’ve learned a lot from Hillary’s campaign,” Wilhelm, an informal adviser to the Obama campaign, acknowledged. “In order to win Ohio, you have to campaign in little patches and be willing to do tours of the Ohio River Valley. You can’t skip that. They’ve learned those lessons well.”
Both Al Gore and Kerry had sought to increase turnout in such traditional Democratic strongholds as Cleveland. What was missing — particularly by Kerry — was any effort to campaign in culturally conservative areas, where George W. Bush won by margins of 2 to 1.
“The biggest mistake that national Democrats make when they look at Ohio … is that Hamilton, Cuyahoga and Franklin counties account for less than 30 percent of the general election voters,” Wilhelm said. “You tell that to somebody in Washington, and they say, ‘What are you talking about? Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland – that’s the state.’ Well, it’s not the state, and it’s not even close to being the state.”
As state Rep. Ted Celeste, brother of the former Democratic governor, told me recently: “If you look at the map, one of the things you see are the number of medium- and small-sized towns. Kerry just simply did not do a good job in counties where Bush absolutely destroyed us — the smaller counties.”
It’s one thing to use someone else’s playbook. It’s another thing to execute it. Last Thursday when I sat down with Ohio Democratic consultant Greg Haas, who ran the state campaign for Clinton in 1992, he disputed the similarities between Obama’s and Strickland’s campaigns.
Haas pointed out — correctly — the effect, or lack thereof, of having a Democratic governor in office while running for president in Ohio. While Republican George Voinovich was governor in the 1990s, Clinton won Ohio twice. With the Democrat Celeste in office in 1984 and 1988, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush won, respectively.
“The way Ted Strickland won is not the way Barack Obama will win,” Haas told me, recalling Strickland’s race against the African-American Ken Blackwell, who had become the state GOP’s darling.
“First of all,” Haas said, “race is the opposite factor here. In the small town where I grew up, where I’m from, I was stunned about how many people would say to me when I was back there, ‘I’m voting for one of your guys for the first time ever. I’m not voting for that black guy.’ And these were fundamentalist Christians, and as far as they were concerned, Ted Strickland was a baby killer.”
But Haas went on to say,”You cannot win Ohio by turnout alone. You have to run a battle on two fronts. You have to make sure you get your vote out — but you also have to convert.
“And conversion is not necessarily getting a Republican to turn over, or getting independents,” Haas continued. “It’s also running strong enough in Republican areas that you don’t motivate them to turn out. We make the assumption that every Republican votes, because so many of them do. But we’re talking about the difference between 78 percent turnout and 81 percent of the Republicans. Take that three percent away — obviously you have a significant factor in the race. For the average Republican who votes almost every single time … the day [may get] crowded, and all sorts of things are going on on Election Day. Do you feel like you just got to get out there and vote? Or, well, do you say, ‘It’s not so bad. I’ve got to go to the grocery store. My one vote’s not going to matter.’”
Gov. Ted Strickland (flickr)
While Haas takes issue with drawing parallels between Strickland and Obama, he marvels at the tactical approach the Obama campaign has taken. This includes correcting the big tactical flaw in Kerry’s Ohio campaign: He did not advertise on general broadcast radio, while Bush paid for a mighty presence on the AM dial.
This might seem trivial. But the fact is that a large chunk of voters get most of their news over the radio. These are the men and women living in the exurbs and outer rings of Ohio cities, people who travel 45 minutes to get to the office, then make the same long trek home at night. Like not putting people on the ground in GOP counties and towns, what Kerry essentially did was cede the airwaves and news cycle to Bush. In 2008, try driving in Ohio for 10 minutes without hearing an Obama ad.
“The Kerry campaign in 2004 on the ground did one of the best jobs to date,” Haas said. “It did a much better job than we did in ’92. But their problem was the Republicans did a fantastic job, and the air strike, air campaign from the national folks was flawed. What the Obama folks are doing is second to none. It is exponentially greater than any Democrat or Republican campaign has done before. They have over 500 employees, and they’ve been on the ground since June. They’ve got paid organizers in Zanesville, Ohio…”
When I interrupted by pointing out the field office in my hometown, Haas continued, “Yeah, exactly. I was a field director for Celeste in ’82. We sent in a volunteer organizer into Butler County for the final three weeks of the campaign. And no one had done that before. And we won the county — by the way. The fact is, we’ve got level of activity on the Obama campaign that the McCain campaign cannot match.”
Should Obama win the election, it will be because his campaign sees Ohio as I did in the statehouse basement. Rather than see it as the monolithic land mass that changes color every time CNN national correspondent John King touches it, Obama’s team knows the state is more of a quilt — with each patch requiring careful tending.
Strickland and Brown knew this, and they might have shown Obama the tactics. They might have given him the path. Now he must make their terrain his own.
44 Comments
Comment posted October 27, 2008 @ 3:44 am
“They’ve got paid organizers in Zanesville, Ohio…”
Memorable quote.
Comment posted October 27, 2008 @ 5:20 am
Republicans always make a word or phrase that is good and right, a dirty word, example liberal. Redistribution of wealth or spreading the wealth, epitimizes the principals of sharing and fairness — it means that everyone gets to share in the pie, everyone has opportunity, not just the special few! I belive that the McWizards of Oz are finally being exposed! AND
If the American public is truly concerned about the Voting Problems in America, then they should vote Dems all the way down the chain, because Republicans have fillibustered or stoped any kind of legislation to reform our voting system from fraud and hacking time and time again. We need a voting system we can believe in. This you will see reformed with a Dem President and legislation, along with enacting badly needed regulatory rules on our economic systems.
Comment posted October 27, 2008 @ 8:59 am
Excellent analysis. People outside Ohio really do have a hard time understanding how differently the different areas of the state vote. Just as you have to remind Democrats that Ohio isn't all Cleveland, the Republicans have to be reminded that it isn't all Cincinnati.
One thing I notice just by looking at the electoral maps for the last 20 years is that Ohio sits in the middle of four states that typically vote in favor of opposite politics. Typically red Indiana to the west, blue Pennsylvania to the east. Typically blue Michigan to the north and red Kentucky to the south. The upshot of the gradual shift from blue to red is that Ohio turns out to be very purple, and a politician's strategy has to change dependent on what region of the state he's in AND in what size city AND if he's in a commuter town, where do the commuters work. It's complex, to say the least.
Comment posted October 27, 2008 @ 11:59 am
Someone actually asked me today what it's like “living in a battleground state,” and it, again, hammered in for me what a strange view everyone outside of Ohio has of the political climate there. I may have to link her to your piece because you've outlined it incredibly well. People don't realize the incredible complexity and the fact that red states in general aren't necessarily banjo-twanging “Deliverance” country where there's nary a Democrat to be found.
Comment posted October 27, 2008 @ 12:20 pm
Republicans always make a word or phrase that is good and right, a dirty word, example liberal. Redistribution of wealth or spreading the wealth, epitimizes the principals of sharing and fairness — it means that everyone gets to share in the pie, everyone has opportunity, not just the special few! I belive that the McWizards of Oz are finally being exposed! AND
If the American public is truly concerned about the Voting Problems in America, then they should vote Dems all the way down the chain, because Republicans have fillibustered or stoped any kind of legislation to reform our voting system from fraud and hacking time and time again. We need a voting system we can believe in. This you will see reformed with a Dem President and legislation, along with enacting badly needed regulatory rules on our economic systems.
Comment posted October 27, 2008 @ 3:59 pm
Excellent analysis. People outside Ohio really do have a hard time understanding how differently the different areas of the state vote. Just as you have to remind Democrats that Ohio isn't all Cleveland, the Republicans have to be reminded that it isn't all Cincinnati.
One thing I notice just by looking at the electoral maps for the last 20 years is that Ohio sits in the middle of four states that typically vote in favor of opposite politics. Typically red Indiana to the west, blue Pennsylvania to the east. Typically blue Michigan to the north and red Kentucky to the south. The upshot of the gradual shift from blue to red is that Ohio turns out to be very purple, and a politician's strategy has to change dependent on what region of the state he's in AND in what size city AND if he's in a commuter town, where do the commuters work. It's complex, to say the least.
Comment posted October 27, 2008 @ 6:59 pm
Someone actually asked me today what it's like “living in a battleground state,” and it, again, hammered in for me what a strange view everyone outside of Ohio has of the political climate there. I may have to link her to your piece because you've outlined it incredibly well. People don't realize the incredible complexity and the fact that red states in general aren't necessarily banjo-twanging “Deliverance” country where there's nary a Democrat to be found.
Comment posted May 11, 2010 @ 5:37 am
P90x .It really is not expensive if you factor in the cost of a gym membership,P90x workout . The cost for P90X is about three months of a paid gym membership but you get to keep the program foreverP90x . You can try many of the online sites, but it will be the same as buying from the company or a Beachbody Coach. Make sure you are getting original DVD's. People are selling copies all over. The problem is how long will they last, P90x workout ,and you truly need the exercise and nutrition guide to even follow the program. You can go to any site http://www.p90xmall.com/ or you can go to and click on products. P90x dvd You can order directly from the site,P90x dvd.
Comment posted June 3, 2010 @ 2:17 am
Well , the view of the passage is totally correct ,your details is really reasonable and you guy give us valuable informative post, I totally agree the standpoint of upstairs. I often surfing on this forum when I m free and I find there are so much good information we can learn in this forum!friednoodle
Comment posted June 4, 2010 @ 5:33 am
Well , the view of the passage is totally correct ,your details is really reasonable and you guy give us valuable informative post, I totally agree the standpoint of upstairs. I often surfing on this forum when I m free and I find there are so much good information we can learn in this forum! http://kite8.net/
Comment posted June 7, 2010 @ 2:19 am
It looks good,I have learn a recruit!
Recently,I found an excellent online store, the http://www.chaneloutletstores.com are completely various, good quality and cheap price,it’s worth buying!
write's unique point.It is useful and benefit to your daily life.You can go those chanel chanel outlet chanel store cheap chanel discount chanel chanel on sale chanel for sale chanel leather Chanel bags chanel handbags chanel purses chanel wallets chanel Luggage chanel travel bags chanel shoes chanel boots chanel Accessories chanel belts chanel jewelry chanel scarves Chanel glasses chanel sunglasses chanel clothing chanel dress chanel bikini thefer net Like-Acer tiny let-lands iamateacherithink
sits to know more relate things.They are strongly recommended by friends.Personally
I feel quite well.
Comment posted June 7, 2010 @ 7:40 am
cheap gucci shoes on sale at http://www.okayoutlet.com
Comment posted June 7, 2010 @ 8:37 am
sale Mens Vibram Five Fingers Flow
sale Womens Vibram Five Fingers Flow
Comment posted June 8, 2010 @ 8:00 am
Well , the view of the passage is totally correct ,your details is really reasonable and you guy give us valuable informative post, I totally agree the standpoint of upstairs. www. vibram fivefingers classic men I often surfing on this forum when I m free and I find there are so much good information we can learn in this forum!
Comment posted June 9, 2010 @ 2:31 am
A closely taste of various characteristic snack. Experience the excitement of tasty and spicy, relax and enjoy the fresh of delicious.Here's sites presen various clothing fit for couple dating, friends dinner and banquet.<a href=” http://www.see-for.com“ >see for
Comment posted June 9, 2010 @ 3:12 am
It looks good,I have learn a recruit!
Recently,I found an excellent online store, the http://www.always11.net are completely various, good quality and cheap price,it’s worth buying!
Comment posted June 10, 2010 @ 4:02 am
Well , the view of the passage is totally correct ,your details is really reasonable and you <a href=” http://in-the-information.com/ ” >wslmart.net guy give us valuable informative post, I totally agree the standpoint of upstairs. I often surfing on this forum when I m free and I find there are so much good information we can learn in this forum!
Comment posted June 10, 2010 @ 5:54 am
I totally agree the standpoint of upstairs, and I believe this will be a trend. I often come this forum , rom here I learn much and know the newest tide!
<a href=” http://www.eeadie.com“ >eeadie
the content here constantly update and I love it! Another I know some websites which often update their contents, you guys should browse if you are free.
Comment posted June 10, 2010 @ 6:45 am
I really like this type of Merchandise too, can you help me look at which one has higher price point?
http://vibramshoesonline.com/
Comment posted June 10, 2010 @ 6:52 am
It looks good,I have learn a recruit!Recently,I found an excellent online store, thenrtrsmitters.com XX are completely various, good quality and cheap price,it’s worth buying!
Comment posted August 6, 2010 @ 12:52 am
????MBT?????????????????MBT??????????????MBT?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????MBT???????????????
mbt mbt
mbt ? mbt??
mbt???? mbt????
Comment posted August 21, 2010 @ 5:32 am
“They’ve got paid organizers in Zanesville, Ohio…”
Memorable quote.
Comment posted August 26, 2010 @ 12:58 am
cheap jerseys
air max 90
nike shox r4
nike shox oz
nike air force one
nike air force shoes
nfl jerseys wholesale
nfl jersey wholesale
discount nfl jerseys
wholesale nfl hats
wholesale mlb hats
Comment posted August 30, 2010 @ 2:07 am
mbt kaya black suit for the person who like running over walking, so covering the distances required in crowds is frustrating and uncomfortable, and standing for long periods is absolutely painful. Whether the mbt lami birch, for health, I think the mbt shoes may be overlooked mbt m walk women still despite what I’d consider to be tangible benefits.
Comment posted September 3, 2010 @ 2:40 am
When I interrupted by pointing out the field office in my hometown, Haas continued, “Yeah, exactly. I was a field director for Celeste in ‘82. We sent in a volunteer organizer into Butler County for the final three weeks of the campaign. And no one had done that before. And we won the county — by the way. The fact is, we’ve got level of activity on the Obama campaign that the McCain campaign cannot match.”
Comment posted September 16, 2010 @ 3:54 pm
One thing I notice just by looking at the electoral maps for the last 20 years is that Ohio sits in the middle of four states that typically vote in favor of opposite politics
Comment posted September 30, 2010 @ 8:11 am
When I interrupted by pointing out the field office in my hometown, Haas continued, “Yeah, exactly. I was a field director for Celeste in ‘82. We sent in a volunteer organizer into Butler County for the final three weeks of the campaign. And no one had done that before. And we won the county — by the way. The fact is, we’ve got level of activity on the Obama campaign that the McCain campaign cannot match.”
Comment posted October 5, 2010 @ 9:58 am
And no one had done that before. And we won the county — by the way. The fact is, we’ve got level of activity on the Obama campaign that the McCain campaign cannot match
Comment posted October 16, 2010 @ 10:41 am
there was a massive activities this days i remember that time
Comment posted November 26, 2010 @ 3:28 am
mbt sale of various MBT outlet? MBT shoes diacount leisure shoes, sandals, MBT Swiss health shoes, mbt shoes, Nike sneakers,mbt footland shoes and so on many kinds of shoes brand. Full-court shopping free door-to-door preferential, low quality and service quality, 100% guaranteed…
http://www.mbtsneakers1.com/ 2011.11.26
Comment posted November 26, 2010 @ 4:14 am
I think this is the massive force of Obama
Comment posted March 21, 2011 @ 9:48 am
air jordan shoes
jordan sneakers
cheap clothes online
cheap clothes
nike heels
nike heels for women
gucci men
cheap designer clothes
wholesale clothes
below bulk
Comment posted May 30, 2011 @ 5:09 am
christian louboutin
http://www.shoe-heaven.com/
christian louboutin
christian louboutin discount
http://www.shoe-heaven.com/
christian louboutin discount
christian louboutin outlet
http://www.shoe-heaven.com/
christian louboutin outlet
Comment posted May 31, 2011 @ 3:05 am
welcome to our websiteoakley sunglasses outlet Male golfers commonly put on khaki jeans and polo shirts obtaining a collar.I wouldn’t suggest purchasing your golfing clothing with your the
Comment posted May 31, 2011 @ 3:06 am
Full-court shopping free door-to-door preferential, low quality and service quality, 100% guaranteed…cheap new era hatsMale golfers commonly put on khaki jeans and polo shirts obtaining a collar.
Comment posted June 4, 2011 @ 8:46 am
organic tea
buy tea online
wholesale tea
chinese black tea
organic black tea
best black tea
chinese green tea
buy green tea
best green tea
chinese oolong tea
organic oolong tea
buy oolong tea
Comment posted June 9, 2011 @ 6:27 am
One final timberland pandora braceletsoption could be to get outside help. There are many pandorawebsites such as Pandora DIYpandora jewellery uk and getafreelancer.com where you can post rewriting projects for professional writers. The quality of the timberland boots work will vary but rates can be quite cheap.It may be a good idea to try out these cheap Pandora DIY Setstimberland boots methods and see how they work for you. You will have to invest some money but it will be worth it if you find Pandora New Arrivals
RSS feed for comments on this post.
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
