Saturday, May 26th, 2012

Ties That Bind

By Satyajit Das
Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 4:09 pm

The Federal Reserve Building (Flickr: NCinDC)

U.S. Federal Reserve Headquarters (Flickr: NCinDC)

The complex structure of modern capital markets is increasingly the cause of financial crises. External shocks like a decline in housing prices are intensified as they move through the convoluted chains of dealings that link market participants. Concentration of trading among a small group of dealers only heightens the many risks.

In hindsight, the Federal Reserve’s decision not to bail out Lehman Bros. was a major miscalculation that helped generate the wave of financial anxiety, distrust and uncertainty that doomed American International Group and other institutions. It also helped freeze up credit markets that are only now beginning to thaw. If government overseers had shown greater appreciation and knowledge of the plumbing of the financial system they regulate, some form of Lehman might still be around.

Illustration by: Matt Mahurin

In any case, central bankers and finance ministers frequently act like Pritzker Prize-winning architects charged with trying to unstop clogged plumbing. As a result, they find, as Woody Allen described: “Not only is there no god, but try getting a plumber on weekends.”

In fairness, even experienced professionals struggle to understand the structure of modern markets. One is Jeremy Grantham, chairman of GMO. He recently rated his knowledge of the markets this way: “I want to emphasize how little I understand all of the intricate workings of the global financial system. I hope that someone else gets it, because I don’t. … It is just so intricate that all I can conclude, by instinct and by reading the history books, is that it will be longer, harder and more complicated than we expect [to solve the financial crisis].”

One consequence of the system’s complexity and interconnectedness is that it is difficult to analyze the solvency of financial institutions. The speed with which liquidity and access to funding can evaporate — as with the Dutch bank, Fortis — renders financial statements virtually meaningless.

Agreements governing a firm’s ties to other financial companies also increasingly affect perceptions of its solvency. For example, the downgrade of AIG to below an “AA” credit rating triggered margin calls in excess of $10 billion from the company’s lenders. It also gave AIG’s outside trading parties the right to terminate certain contracts, triggering losses of $4 billion to $5 billion. AIG did not have the resources to meet its obligations — and the government had to step in and bail out the world’s largest insurer.

How a company’s financial distress will affect the overall system can depend on how it is restructured. In the case of Lehman, it was the holding company that filed for bankruptcy protection. The investment bank’s other businesses continued to run. That means financial institutions doing business with Lehman were differently affected by its collapse.

The effects of the demise of Washington Mutual, the largest bank failure in U.S. history, were different. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. seized the Seattle thrift following a wave of deposit withdrawals. J.P. Morgan Chase subsequently agreed to acquire WaMu’s banking operations and assume its loan portfolio in a $1.9 billion deal engineered by the government regulator. WaMu’s customers were largely unaffected.

Lehman Bros., New York (Flickr: James Chen)

What’s predictable when financial institutions fail is that investors lose money. With Lehman, unlucky creditors included banks on every continent that had bought Lehman securities and bonds. Because J.P. Morgan did not assume WaMu’s senior unsecured debt, subordinated debt and preferred stock, investors in those financial instruments lost out.

Those losses can be steep. Market estimates of how much Lehman’s debt is worth range from 10 cents to 15 cents on the dollar — a potential loss to investors of 85 percent to 90 percent. In general, recovery rates will be determined by the nature of the assets that Lehman’s counterparties hold — private equity stakes, principal investments, hedge-fund equity, complex slices of risk in structured financial instruments and derivatives. The difficulty in valuing these assets — and the illiquidity of others — may exacerbate investor losses.

One way to examine the complexity of today’s financial plumbing is to focus on a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. When a firm files for bankruptcy, all contracts that it has had with trading partners — and the number can be huge — would usually terminate. Lehman reportedly had about 2 million open contracts.

Add to the sheer number of contracts the possibility of incomplete documentation, or plain error. Then throw in operational risks and problems of logistics.

All this triggers a complex chain of events.

The net value of an individual financial contract between a counterparty and a distressed firm may be settled if the contract specifies the amount. If it is the counterparty that owes the amount, it must pay it to the bankruptcy trustee. This means an immediate — and possibly large — cash outlay for the non-defaulting party. If the distressed firm owes the amount, then the counterparty must supply documentary proof to the bankruptcy trustee and await payment.

If the counterparty holds collateral to secure its exposure, then the collateral must be sold to cover the amount due.

If the contract was used as a hedge, its termination exposes the counterparty to its underlying risk. The counterparty must then enter into new contracts to re-hedge itself to avoid additional risk. In general, hedging must be done on a contract-by-contract basis, with limited scope for retrieving net value.

Because this process is complex and time-consuming, the amount of losses sustained may not be certain for some time.

The Chapter 11 filing may also trigger contracts concerning the firm itself. For example, Lehman’s bankruptcy filing would have required settlement of credit default swap contracts that, in effect, insured some of the investment bank’s debt. If a Lehman counterparty held these contracts as hedges, they would ease its losses. In all cases, settlements would create potential losses and claims on available liquidity and funding. Settlement of credit default swaps on Lehman’s debt, for example, came to about $365 billion.

A firm’s bankruptcy affects other parties through “contagion.” Counterparties that had dealings with the distressed firm either face losses or suffer cash outflows as they meet termination payments. They may face additional losses on sales of collateral or from re-hedging positions. These losses affect their credit quality, possibly leading to a fall in their share prices and increases in their borrowing costs. If credit ratings are affected, margin calls may be the result, further threatening solvency.

The overall market is also affected. Greater volatility in asset prices may reflect liquidation of positions, re-hedging activity and sales of collateral. Trading liquidity falls as the number of counterparties drops. Credit becomes scarce, limiting firms’ ability to deal with each other.

Uncertainty over the fallout of a company going under can cause trading in the inter-bank lending market to freeze up. That, in turn, further increases volatility and exposes weaker firms to failure.

Bankruptcy proceedings inevitably accelerate the need to deal with assets that are difficult to value or are illiquid. In resolving the matter, trustees and administrators, acting in the best interest of creditors, can adversely affect the overall market.

And because bankruptcy law is jurisdiction-specific, different sets of trustees and administrators have to grapple with how to best manage the assets of a firm to settle with its creditors. In the case of Lehman, there are already disputes about transfers, totalling $8 billion, made between the investment bank’s London office and those in the United States.

They may also differ in their approaches to dealing with assets. The U.S. trustee in the Lehman bankruptcy indicated that “time was of essence” in dealing with the bank’s assets. In contrast, the British administrator anticipated a long drawn-out affair. All this creates uncertainty about the effect of Lehman’s demise on its creditors and the overall market.

Assets held in a fiduciary capacity can become entangled in this mess. Where Lehman acted as their prime broker, hedge funds and other asset managers face potentially lengthy delays in recovering their investment. About $45 billion in assets, and $20 billion in short positions, are affected. Here’s another problem: Though unable to deal with their assets, legal owners may face margin calls if the value of their positions deteriorates.

A bankruptcy filing can thus reveal the complex networks that tie together all participants in modern financial markets. The chains of risk can spread problems from distressed financial institutions to weak ones, and can ultimately affect even strong firms seemingly remote from the problem.

Assume Bank A, a sound financial institution, has large hedges with Bank B, another sound institution. If a counterparty to Bank B has difficulties, its resulting losses may imperil Bank B, which, in turn, might affect Bank A.

The risk spreads through direct losses, liquidity calls, funding problems or uncertainty. Confidence in the financial system is undermined and financial transactions grind to a halt. It’s a contagion that resembles a hungry wolf pack systematically hunting down the weakest prey in a herd.

Understanding the financial system’s detailed connections, while unglamorous, is the key to anticipating the evolution of a crisis and preventing further exposure to events. It is also where long-term reform efforts should be directed.

John W. Gardner once observed: “The society which scorns excellence in plumbing as a humble activity and tolerates shoddiness in philosophy because it is an exalted activity will have neither good plumbing nor good philosophy: neither its pipes nor its theories will hold water.”

Shoddy monetary philosophies caused the financial crisis. Now inadequate plumbing of the global financial system is greatly increasing its risks.

Satyajit Das is a risk consultant and author of “Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives.”

At the time of publication the author or his firm did not own any direct investments in securities mentioned in this article although he may be an owner indirectly as an investor in a fund.

Comments

43 Comments

Dave
Comment posted October 22, 2008 @ 4:17 pm

Satyajit, as far as where we are in this mess, are we still singing the national anthem before a game that is going to go into overtime?

Independent Mind
Comment posted October 22, 2008 @ 6:12 pm

Dave – to put this into perspective for you. We are just now standing up to sing the national anthem BEFORE the game begins. This isn't the beggining of the end of this, it isn't even the end of the beginning. We are just getting started on a path that if allowed to run it's cource will take anywhere from 18 to 24 months to sort itself out. If the feds keep intervening, it will only prolong it, along with destroying the monetary value of our currency.

Good luck brother, not the news you wanted to hear, but it is the truth. The derivative bubble is behind the housing bubble. And it would be like comapring a sedan to a semi tractor trailer in size. THat's not taking into cosideration the constant ripples that return to us from our originating housing bubbles. You might want to go out to you tube and look up some of Ron Pauls Monetary Policy videos. He has been spot on for the past 10 years on everything that has happened.

John Merryman
Comment posted October 22, 2008 @ 6:37 pm

The reason it is a bubble is because to save money, it must be invested, i.e., lent to someone. This means the total savings is determined by prudent lending, rather than the needs of a privatized economy, where everyone is dependent on private savings. To overcome this obstacle, lending standards have to be lowered. Even that isn't enough, so there is this form of pari-mutual wagering, called derivatives. So if I bet my dollar against your dollar, that's two dollars invested. Since one of us might lose, we hedge this initial bet with counter bets. That means six dollars invested and the web spreads. Lots of money invested, so we are all rich. Think soap bubble and the pin just hit it.
How do we solve this problem? Get the government to print lots of money to replace the credit? Hmmm…. Doesn't that just make the underlaying value of the currency part of the bubble, which we will continue blowing up until it pops too?
The fact is that the entire system of government supported private central banks servicing a private banking industry has reached its viable limits.
Money is a form of public utility, based on faith in the institution insuring it, which means us, the taxpayers. It's sort of like a road system. You own your car, house, business, etc., but not the roads connecting them. Same for the money in your pocket. The fact it's completely interchangeable with what's in everyone else's pocket is what makes it a medium of exchange. We like to think of it as private property, but the government owns the rights, which it leases out to a private banking system and they make the profits, while we are responsible for the risks.
Now much of this private banking system is being nationalized because they got way too greedy.
Should we spend billions more to make them whole and set them free again, or is there another way?
Obviously a huge nationalized banking system is as scary as the current system, but we have developed a system of government that consists of many layers, from the smallest town and county councils, up through state and city governments, to national and even international organizations. Why not a banking system modeled on that, with community banking as an integral function of all the various levels of government, channeling their profits back into the communities from which they came, in order to provide the public services necessary. These communities can then compete to provide the best environment for their people and businesses and grow as an organic function of that. They would continue using a national currency, with various levels of local, state and federal regulation that would evolve as situations require it.
It's not that far fetched, given the extent to which banking is being rescued and otherwise propped up.
It also goes back to the very nature of money; Where would all the money the government borrows and re-cycles back through the public sector be invested otherwise? Private markets are not big enough. Social Security is a good example, as this money is spent as it is collected and doesn't need complex savings mechanisms to be stored. Throughout history, people have invested in their old age by taking care of their elders in the assumption the next generation will do the same.
Government debt only transfers value from taxpayers to bondholders. Isn't it interesting the same people who say we shouldn't have to pay taxes, go and borrow as much as possible? Whether it's your house, or your government, if you borrow to pay for it and don't pay it back, sooner or later it isn't yours anymore. Think of that when you are paying tolls to some foreign sovereign fund to use your local highway in a few years time.
We need to develop far more complex and flexible methods of exchange, because the current model is more broken than anyone wants to admit. Storing abstract wealth has its limits, as well as its uses. We need to invest more in our environment and communities, rather than sucking value out of both to put in a bank. That will restrain the ability of both public and private organizations to use this wealth in ways that are destructive and unpopular.

dave
Comment posted October 23, 2008 @ 6:50 am

Thank you, the Fed intervening going forward is pretty much a given I believe, they will fight this tooth and nail and will come up short against the market forces. My fwd looking fear is our US Treasuries turn subprime in the eyes of asia with all the debt we are piling on (3 trillion in 3 weeks), if the kindness of our overseas bond holders have a change of heart and dump our bonds out of fear we will be 3rd world.

Michael M. Thomas
Comment posted October 25, 2008 @ 6:03 am

I suspect (and this has been confirmed by people with considerable inside knowledge of Lehman) that it was the firm's COMMERCIAL real estate book that undid it, at least in Paulson's eyes. This set the firm apart from other, prior “bailees” in terms of the potential chain-reaction a rescue might incite. A way should have been found to separate these assets and iabilities from the rest of Lehman.

williambanzai7
Comment posted October 28, 2008 @ 10:29 pm

As usual, your commentary is informative and entertaining. Please post more.

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listenhere
Comment posted November 23, 2008 @ 12:21 pm

The idiotic complexity of the debt instrument buildup over the last 30 years succeded in keeping most of the eventual owners of these instruments from really understanding what they owned. How does anyone think that in the unwind phase, we will suddenly figure it all out? The financial whizzes succeeded in putting packaged debt out there totaling about 8 times the GDP of the whole world with one dollar of real money supporting over twenty dollars of toxic mystery money. The unwind will be much more chaotic than the buildup. I think that at some point in the coming struggle with Debt World, there will inevitably be a need to declare some sort of global jubilee as has, up untill now, been a little known or talked about movement aimed at international debt cancellation. The toxic debt will be tossed around like a hot potato for years forcing governments to print currencies into oblivion. This old order will give way to a new order where there will be no debt as we know it and no currencies and a totally new money.

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Comment posted February 21, 2009 @ 10:11 am

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Comment posted March 6, 2009 @ 4:14 am

At the time of publication the author or his firm did not own any direct investments in securities mentioned in this article although he may be an owner indirectly as an investor in a fund.

Arunabh Das
Comment posted March 9, 2009 @ 1:45 am

I heard you on Planet Money and as your namesake, I am jealous of you :-). However, I was wondering if you think that there is an element of “the butterfly effect” in the financial system and if that is a result of the coupling of financial systems across the world and whether the effects of the snowball effect can be mitigated by decoupling financial systems, without eliminating market touchpoints and trade and commerce?

????
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Money and as your namesake, I am jealous of you :-). However, I was wondering if you think that there is an element of “the butterfly

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