Year of the Independent Voter

When Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) all but wrapped up the Democratic nomination last week, the focus of both his and Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) presidential campaigns shifted to general election strategies. Unsurprisingly, both are targeting independent voters, which these candidates appealed to this primary season — McCain, with his almost trademarked maverick persona, and Obama, with his post-partisan message of unity and hope.

Independent voters could be pivotal in November. While membership in traditional parties has weakened in recent decades, independent voters increased — the number of people registering as "unaffiliated" or "other" since 1987 jumped from 16 percent to 24 percent. For example, in Florida, an important battleground state, the number of "other" voters has more than quadrupled, surpassing 20 percent of the electorate. In another key state, California, since 1988 the percentage of voters "declin[ing] to state" a party preference rose nearly 8 percentage points — to almost 18 percent.

The looming battle between McCain and Obama for independent voters is evident in polling. On Wednesday, Gallup released a poll that showed McCain and Obama share nearly equal support among independents — 44 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain. So this election would ultimately be about who attracts the most independent voters.

Polling also reveals that McCain and Obama both satisfy what independents are looking for in a candidate – personal values, military judgment, willingness to work with the opposing party and managerial competence. So while the national environment may favor Democrats, this suggests that McCain still has a fighting chance to win over these important voters.

"The vital political center is back this year after it was on sabbatical in 2004,” said John Zogby, the eponymous pollster. "The middle, mostly represented by independents, is up for grabs. And it will be the swing vote in the election."

But while the "middle" is likely to be contested, independent voters are often improperly defined. A closer look at this group reveals it is not nearly as monolithic as usually portrayed. Blocks of independent voters vary across the country and, demographically, the differences can be substantial. For example, independent voters in Colorado, often new to the state, are largely young and well-educated. They have different values than independents in, say, Pennsylvania, who are likely to be older, less educated and more rooted in their community. Consequently, independents in certain areas will be more receptive to Obama’s change message while those in other regions will be more likely to support McCain’s established maverick image — a result that could split the independent vote in November.

In addition, the influence of independent voters can be minimal. Experts say independent voters are often the least politically active and, consequently, tend not to vote. Most of the uninformed independent voters tend not to make a rational, personal decision on which candidate to vote for, but are instead swept up into national trends. A growing yet still small class of informed independent voters, it appears, behaves the same way.

One problem that often arises in discussing independents is how large a percentage they are of the electorate. The American National Election Studies (ANES), a group that surveys voters across the country every election year, measures voter partisanship by asking if voters to rank their partisanship on a seven-point scale from extremely liberal to extremely conservative. On this scale, 26 percent said they were "moderates" in 2004, a four point jump from 2002.

But this doesn’t accurately identify independent voters, said Candice Nelson, a political scientist at American University and co-author of "The Myth of the Independent Voter." Two questions must be used to determined partisanship, Nelson said. First, respondents should be asked if they consider themselves a Democrat, Republican or independent. Nelson has found that roughly 30 percent will say they are independents. But then a second question asks if the respondent considers him or herself an independent, does he or she lean toward one party. This greatly reduces the number of independents, for Nelson has found that "leaners toward a political party act in practice just like party members."

True or "hard" independents typically make up just 10 percent of the electorate, according to ANES. They tend to be the "least interested in politics," Nelson said, "and the least likely to vote."

"If you are not quite sure what should be done or where you belong," said Morris Fiorina, the Stanford political scientist and author of "Culture War: The Myth of a Polarized America," "you are going to be attracted to a candidate that gives off that same sort of impression rather than someone who speaks like he knows everything."

These voters tend to be less educated, Nelson pointed out, which is the best predictor of whether someone will vote. "It’s going to be hard," she said, "for both McCain and Obama to motivate this group" to turn out at the polls.

Other experts doubt the significance of the independent vote. Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, estimates that 15 percent of the electorate are "hard" independents this year. He says the group is made up of both the least interested voters and the most informed voters, who tend to vote based on specific issues. Either way, these voters tend to be more influenced by the national environment than individual candidates.

"Both types, assuming they vote, are pushed by the currents disproportionately into one party’s camp each year," Sabato said. In 2002 and 2004, Sabato said, the GOP benefited because the national electorate was still receptive to President George W. Bush and his war on terror. In 2006, Democrats carried this group when Bush’s approval rating plummeted and disapproval of the war in Iraq skyrocketed. Those same issues, plus the slowdown in the economy, Sabato said, will likely push independent voters to the Democrats again this year.

Of those independents resistant to national trends, certain criteria of what they are looking for have emerged, said Zogby. In poll after poll, independents want a candidate that, in ranked order, is a competent manager, can work with both parties, can command the military and has strong personal values. Obama, Zogby said, has convinced these voters that he can work with Republicans, that he has strong personal values and, at least on the war in Iraq, has sound military judgment. McCain’s story as a prisoner of war in Vietnam is cited to prove he has a strong personal values and understands the military. His maverick brand also resonates as bipartisan. Both candidates, Zogby said, will fight to prove they are competent managers.

This also suggests that even in a political environment where Democratic voter turnout is soaring and the GOP is losing congressional seats in districts it has held for years, if McCain can prove he is a competent manager, he could win over independents crucial in a close election.

Appealing to this group isn’t as simple as it seems, though. These independent voters, and their values, vary across the country, said William Frey, a political demographer at the Brookings Institute. The difference is often age, rootedness in community and economic situation, Frey said.

Swing states like Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and Michigan have older populations that have lived in their communities all their lives. These states’ populations are in decline, and their metropolitan centers are shrinking. Independents in this region have been hit hardest by the current economic downturn, but they hunker down and rely on their communities to persevere instead of seeking radical change.

These independents are often regarded as Reagan Democrats, voters that left the Democratic Party for Ronald Reagan in 1980 and have yet to return. Pennsylvania in particular, Frey said, has a large percentage of "more traditional Reagan Democrats that have stuck their ground." Unsurprisingly, these independents are more likely to support McCain because of his age and military service and are skeptical of Obama’s message of change.

Conversely, states where the population has grown rapidly in recent years, swing states like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, have a growing economy. These states also have a growing base of independents. These are "younger people, people on the move who relocate to these states because they have aspirations for their own future and for the communities they are moving to," Frey said, "They are less tied down to old ways of thinking then people who have stayed where they are for years." These voters are open to change he explained. "In these states," Frey said, "Obama may be more appealing because he is fresh and has new ideas."

Independent voters, Nelson explained, are more complex than often portrayed. "The key is how independents are defined," she said, "it is not a monolithic group – some lean to one party and others lean to the other. They are really different groups. If you look at pure independents over the years, they tend to vote for the candidate that wins."

"But when it’s a close election," Nelson added, "they tend to split."