rssWith Election Nearing, McCain Clings to Fantasy
Thursday, October 16, 2008 at 10:39 am
- 6 Comments
I’ve been playing around with the interactive electoral map at 270towin.com, trying to find a plausible way for Sen. John McCain, the GOP presidential nominee, to win the general election, and one question becomes increasingly mind-boggling: What in the world is McCain still doing in Pennsylvania?
According to RealClearPolitics, Pennsylvania is solid for Sen. Barack Obama, who leads by an average of 13.6 percentage points in recent major polls in the state.
McCain’s last public campaign event before last night’s presidential debate was Tuesday morning, in Blue Bell, Pa. — an exurb of Philadelphia. McCain is scheduled to return to the Philly area today for a rally in Downingtown, Pa., before returning to New York to tape an appearance on “The Late Show with David Letterman” and speak at the Al Smith Dinner at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel this evening.
This raises another question. McCain arrived in New York at around 2 p.m. Tuesday, in advance of the debate. He left his hotel at approximately 9:40 this morning. If McCain keeps his schedule, this means he will have spent all of Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday in New York, where he has no chance of winning, or Pennsylvania, where he has a miniscule chance. With 19 days left until the election, is this really the most efficient use of the GOP presidential nominee’s time?
Furthermore, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin spent the day in New Hampshire yesterday, another “solid” Obama state, per RealClearPolitics. Why?
It appears the McCain campaign is clinging to the fantasy that it can hold onto the previously red states and even turn some formerly blue states red. A rational reading of the tea leaves should convince McCain’s political advisers that if they want even a remote possibility of winning on Nov. 4, they need to adopt a strictly defensive posture.
The race is boiling down to a small handful of toss-up states: Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada and one swing electoral vote in Maine. President George W. Bush carried all these states in 2004, and Sen. Barack Obama is leading in the polls– at least marginally — in all except Missouri.
This is where the map at 270towin.com comes in. Basically, it all comes down to Virginia, which, by the way, CNN just moved from “toss-up” to Obama’s column. If you give McCain all of the other toss-ups, including the vote in Maine — already an unlikely scenario — Obama still wins with 276 electoral votes. If McCain takes Virginia as well, he will win with 275.
Obama is leading the RealClearPolitics average in Virginia by 8.6 percentage points. FiveThirtyEight.com, the electoral handicapping Website, gave Obama a 94 percent chance of winning the state as of yesterday. On the McCain campaign press bus the other day, a Washington reporter — recognized by others as a Virginia expert — predicted an easy Obama victory.
If McCain wants to retain the faintest glimmer of hope of becoming president — barring drastic unforeseen, game-changing circumstances — he and Palin should forget Pennsylvania and New Hampshire and focus strictly on the toss-ups — particularly Virginia.
6 Comments
Comment posted October 16, 2008 @ 8:43 am
McCain is not going to win this election. Watching the debate last night, I saw McCain taking deep breaths, smirking, being condescending, and a smart@ss. He was argumentative and, I felt, quite uncomfortable. He kept squirming in his chair and appeared downright dumbfounded at some of Senator Obama's responses. McCain has difficulty reining in his emotions and his anger often surfaces. John McCain is an old washed-out politician who really is far removed from today's younger generations and from the middleclass and the underprivileged. I am especially appalled at Mitt Romney who vigoriously supports McCain as the “best” candidate. People like Mitt Romney put their party above our country and what is best for it. That these people think Sarah Palin is ready to lead is outrageous. She is a total incompetent whose only “talent” is stirring up the crowds into a mob yelling out such things as, “terrorist”, “kill him”, and “off with his head” and smiles broadly while these horrific calls are being yelled. Shame on Sarah Palin, and shame on John McCain for inciting, encouraging, and promoting such behavior with their own hateful and false rhetoric!!
Comment posted October 16, 2008 @ 11:03 am
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
Comment posted October 16, 2008 @ 1:02 pm
John McCain showed where he is coming from when the debate ended. He wandered around the stage not knowing where to go. He came across as confused old man. I know where I will be going, into the voting booth and voting Obama/Biden. I have had enough of Bush/McCain – Chaney/Palin.
Comment posted October 16, 2008 @ 3:43 pm
McCain is not going to win this election. Watching the debate last night, I saw McCain taking deep breaths, smirking, being condescending, and a smart@ss. He was argumentative and, I felt, quite uncomfortable. He kept squirming in his chair and appeared downright dumbfounded at some of Senator Obama's responses. McCain has difficulty reining in his emotions and his anger often surfaces. John McCain is an old washed-out politician who really is far removed from today's younger generations and from the middleclass and the underprivileged. I am especially appalled at Mitt Romney who vigoriously supports McCain as the “best” candidate. People like Mitt Romney put their party above our country and what is best for it. That these people think Sarah Palin is ready to lead is outrageous. She is a total incompetent whose only “talent” is stirring up the crowds into a mob yelling out such things as, “terrorist”, “kill him”, and “off with his head” and smiles broadly while these horrific calls are being yelled. Shame on Sarah Palin, and shame on John McCain for inciting, encouraging, and promoting such behavior with their own hateful and false rhetoric!!
Comment posted October 16, 2008 @ 6:03 pm
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
Comment posted October 16, 2008 @ 8:02 pm
John McCain showed where he is coming from when the debate ended. He wandered around the stage not knowing where to go. He came across as confused old man. I know where I will be going, into the voting booth and voting Obama/Biden. I have had enough of Bush/McCain – Chaney/Palin.
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