Huckabee’s avoidance of 2012 presidential race could split GOP voters

Another potential presidential candidate has confirmed what his role will be in the 2012 election — uninvolved, at least personally.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said Saturday he intends to sit out the 2012 presidential election. On his Fox News show, “Huckabee,” the former governor indicated his heart was not in the race, in spite of “overwhelming” support from his wife and three adult children.

“The past few months have been times of deep personal reflection,” Huckabee said. “I know I’m going to deeply disappoint a lot of people I love. But I know my decision is going to delight just as many who aren’t that fond of me.”

Huckabee said he will instead continue his work on Fox News.

The staunch conservative, considered a heavyweight contender for the nomination by several political analysts, ran for president in 2008, finishing respectably behind Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the popular vote. Huckabee also won the Iowa Republican caucuses that year.

Still, news that Huckabee won’t run in 2012 did not come as a complete surprise to everyone.

“I wasn’t honestly surprised,” Timothy Hagle, associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, said. “Huckabee hasn’t been making movements in Iowa to indicate he was going to run, even though he had a good showing in the polls. He has a TV show, a radio show, he’s building a new house in Florida. Life is good for him right now.”

The game changer is both a hurt and a help to candidates U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Georgia), and other prospects who have yet to announce their intentions.

“A significant element of Republicans in Iowa are social and religious Conservatives,” Dennis Goldford, professor of political science at Drake University, said. “Anyone seeking to do well in the Iowa caucuses must resonate to these people.”

Prior to the 2008 presidential election, 40 percent of voters identified themselves as some kind of social religious conservative, Goldford said. In 2008, “that number went to 60 percent, and it’s highly attributed to Gov. Huckabee,” Goldford said.

Huckabee is known for supporting intelligent design over evolution, and holds strong anti-abortion rights and anti-gay marriage stances — issues of consequence to throngs of social and religious Conservatives who have gather momentum as a movement since the 2008 elections. With the former governor out of presidential speculation, a “significant block of voters (in Iowa) are up for grabs,” Goldford said.

Those who could prove successful in earning those votes, should they choose to run, include former Alaska Governor and failed vice president candidate Sarah Palin, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) and especially former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, of Pennsylvania.

“Of course, there’s the question if they could actually win the caucus and then the general election,” Goldford said, while pointing out all three emphasize the importance of social issues that social religious conservatives regard. As well, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has been “emphasizing his connection to social religious Conservatives, though he’s seen as kind of a policy wonk.”

Hagle says the golden trio who stand the most to gain from Huckabee’s departure are Pawlenty, Bachmann and Santorum. All three hold social views similar or exact to Huckabee’s own, and have made efforts to reach out to voters who have leaned toward supporting the former Arkansas governor in the past.

“Sarah Palin won’t run, at least I see it as unlikely,” Hagle said. “She can have more influence doing what she’s doing right now.”

Santorum, a Catholic who holds similar social beliefs to the Baptist Huckabee, could especially show promise, Goldford said, primarily because “almost his entire focus has been on social issues.” In multiple interviews, Santorum has spoke candidly about his views on marriage, including that single parent and gay parent homes are detrimental to children.

Both Hagle and Goldford, however, discounted Paul, who announced Friday he would try for the White House a third time. Though the 75-year-old Congressman raised $1 million in 24 hours leading up to the GOP debate in South Carolina, Goldford said funding is not a sign of success in Iowa.

“Money is good, but it’s not necessarily sufficient,” he said. “Young people, high school and college kids, are very drawn to Ron Paul and his Libertarian take. He did the right thing by being pro-life, but that Libertarianism and idea of this neo-isolation stance has made mainstream Republicans suspicious.”

Added Hagle, “I really doubt Huckabee’s supporters will drift to Paul. While certainly they would agree on the fiscal issues, they would hold substantially different social views.”

While a significant block of voters may be looking for a new candidate to back, Goldford warned that different values held by such voters could backfire for all Republican candidates and prospects.

“There’s always the question if they’ll go as a block, or if they’ll split support among candidates, thereby diminishing their own power,” he said.