BREAKING: Landslide Obama Victory

By
Tuesday, October 07, 2008 at 9:55 am

New narrative alert: Sen. Barack Obama will win this election — in a landslide.

But wait, weren’t all the experts and pundits worrying about Obama’s demise just one month ago? Well times change.

Markets fall. Running mates get exposed as embarassingly unqualified. So now this week’s conventional wisdom — first teed up on the front page of the Sunday New York Times and now spreading across the chattering class — is that Obama will not only win, but win big.

The Times analysis focused on the economy, reporting that pocketbook issues were powering Obama “in at least nine states that voted for President Bush in 2004, including some that neither side thought would be on the table this close to Election Day.”

The piece included caveats, but flip to the back of the paper and you’ll find bolder predictions. On Monday, conservative columnist David Brooks flatly “called the election for Obama.” (He was speaking at the American Magazine Conference, as Advertising Age reported.) Even Clintonites are getting in on the act.

“It’s over,” says Howard Wolfson, the Clinton press strategist turned Fox News commentator (and sometime blogger). “If the election were tomorrow, Obama would win all of the states John Kerry carried and add Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio and Florida,” he blogged this week. “This dynamic is very unlikely to change. John McCain’s goal in the first debate was to discredit Sen. Obama as a credible commander in chief… He didn’t come close. Absent a domestic terror attack the economy will remain the No. 1 issue in the race, and there is little Sen. McCain can do to make up [the] gap.”

I found the August hand-wringing about Obama’s problems overblown. While these have obviously been two great weeks for the Democratic nominee, this new narrative is also over the top.

Perceptions change quickly in politics. A “terror attack” is not the only event that could upend this race. Let’s dial it down — how about a gaffe in the remaining debates? Or new revelations about any of the candidates?

In this volatile market, you’d think people would be more careful about hedging their bets.

Comments

29 Comments

blave
Comment posted October 7, 2008 @ 8:10 am

i'm a yellow dog dem who is sick and tired of bold victory predictions being dashed by the successful right wing smears thrown at dems over the remaining weeks of a campaign. brooks and wolfson predicted gore and kerry would win big too. enough with your bravado, wolfson. and brooks always lowers expectations for the right going into major elections. it's going to be a dogfight to the end, and somewhere deep down inside, both brooks and wolfson know it.


PATRICK HENRY
Comment posted October 7, 2008 @ 8:12 am

WE THE VOTERS CAN MAKE IT HAPPEN BY JUST DOING ARE DUTY AND VOTE SENDING SARAH SIX-PACK BACK TO ALASKA AND OLD McBUSH, age 72 INTO RETIREMENT WHERE THEY BELONG. LETS ALL VOTE AND GIVE THEM THEIR CALLING CARDS. SARAH SIX-PACK WAS CHOSE ONLY BY OLD McBUSH,age 72.


Angela
Comment posted October 7, 2008 @ 8:18 am

Wow. Obama won? I had no idea the election already happened. Guess I forgot to vote!


ajm8127
Comment posted October 7, 2008 @ 8:26 am

I guess the Onion had it wrong:

http://www.theonion.com/content/video/diebold_a…


1Concerned Voted
Comment posted October 7, 2008 @ 8:37 am

I voted for both Bushes twice and I am afraid I made a big mistake. Trickel down economics has proved a failure. The only thing that trickles down is what the wealthy can not grab. The idea of not having any rules or regulations is only a license for them to steal more money. The bailout is a great example. Then we the middle class bail them out and John McCain wants the rich to receive even more tax breaks so they do not have to pay for their own bailout. Now that's patriotic!!! Let's face it they are not concerned about America as much as they are with themselves.


jon
Comment posted October 7, 2008 @ 10:20 am

Yeah really. Don't get me wrong, as an Obama supporter I'm very pleased with the polling results, and think that Obama does have a chance for a landslide. Still it's incredibly premature. Polls don't factor in issues like the possibility of unexpected events (an October surpise?) and voter suppression (speaking of which, help wanted on the Voter Suppression Wiki).

And no insult to Howard Wolfson — I like his blog a lot — but given his track record this year, I'll take his prognostication with a grain of salt.


Ron
Comment posted October 7, 2008 @ 12:08 pm

I have found that I get more out of my viewing time by watching c-span, PBS Newshour and Charlie Rose when it is on the election and the people he has are knowledgeable. The BS that Palin somehow did anything for McCain except for those who are committed to him on the basis of being in the talk radio club is nonsense. The portion of the viewers who saw her as not presidential was higher than the portion who favored Obama. The best thing you can do for your understanding of this election is to ignore MSM and that includes their predictions of an Obama sweep.


Ron
Comment posted October 7, 2008 @ 12:34 pm

Zogby polls which I believe to be more accurate than other polls shows it very tight. Frankly pundits are a contrary indicator so as an Obama supporter I am concerned.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE4…


Kim
Comment posted October 9, 2008 @ 7:16 am

Something I don't understand… HOW is it possible that an extreme radical view such as Obama, who if were to serve in the U.S military wouldn't pass the screening, is now thought to be the next leader of this country? His radical education views are all screwed, his executive experience w/Ayers radical education (which did not give money to Chicago Pulic School) was unsuccessful, comes from an area of increasing crime and decreasing education, and has done nothing to it. ONLY supports one party through how he disperses the money which Ayers chose him to disperse. Associations w/NUMEROUS questionable people… AND we are okay with this? I am so confused? I though “liberals” base to be “liberated”? Am I wrong? How is it liberating to have gov't control most facets of your life.

I can't believe we want Chicago politics in our lives… there will be no more checks and balance. Just the democratic party who do NOT listen to the people. Just ask Chicagoans… pand handlers at EVERY corner of Chicago downtown, schools have metal detectors, drug dealers have multiple Mercedes, but only pay aprox. $100 per month. I lived next to them… Still trying to increase tax to give to those who refuse to work. It's no wonder there's no more accountability there. Motto: Keep the people stupid, lazy and dependent so the gov't can save them. In this way, the increase in dependent groups will keep the democrats in business. Seriously, look at Chicago…


Lynn
Comment posted October 10, 2008 @ 12:37 am

Hey, it sounds from your comments Kim like there's one ideal candidate who would serve all of the qualities of our good ol' past that you miss and lament, so we as Americans can freeze time while the rest of the world strides boldly into the 21st century: Archie Bunker. He would be perfect. He'd throw all them bums out of the white house and…put all the same bums back in, but with new names and one with an up-do (a word very few of us were familiar with before). He wouldn't let them uppity–you name it, you know what I mean, nudge nudge, wink wink–”that one”–get away with ruining this great nation of ours by wanting to do things like restore our position in the world's view of us, start acting like a global partner instead of a bully, and something I'm looking for after 8 years of a late night comic's dream: a president who has an IQ over 100. But that's not what we need now–all them sneaky rumors about how Osama–oops I mean Obama is the dark one foretold in end of days–I mean, I usually consult Leviticus before I ever make a political decision.

Archie Bunker would know how to handle each and every one of 'em non-100% American pinko commy arugula eating effites. Quick, while he's still alive (I'm not sure who has a firmer grasp on a long future–McCain or Archie) see if we can draft 'em in, hail mary, before it's too late!


Werner Patels
Comment posted October 10, 2008 @ 7:29 pm

I hope it's true. I want Obama to win by the biggest landslide in American history ever. You Americans are so lucky to have him — here in our own election in Canada, we can only choose from a bunch of morons.


J alan
Comment posted October 30, 2008 @ 7:55 am

i have been telling folks in arkansas that obama will win by a landslide in fact a historic landslide


J alan
Comment posted October 30, 2008 @ 2:55 pm

i have been telling folks in arkansas that obama will win by a landslide in fact a historic landslide


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