March of the 527s

After the Obama campaign responded to external pressure with the resignation of veep vet Jim Johnson yesterday, the McCain campaign seized the moment to frame the whole episode as a reflection of Sen. Barack Obama’s character and his commitment to changing politics as usual in Washington. Chris Cillizza of The Fix rightly compares yesterday’s events with the "swift-boating" of John Kerry in 2004.

The most dangerous stories for any candidate are those that raise questions about the core of his (or her) campaign narrative. One needs only to look back to the 2004 presidential race for evidence of this trend. John Kerry won the Democratic nomination for a variety of reasons, but the biggest of those was that his military record of service in Vietnam was seen as a shield against Republican attacks on patriotism, national security and foreign policy.

Enter the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth who, regardless of whether you agree or disagree with their methods, effectively raised questions about the validity of Kerry’s service and, in doing so, sparked broader questions about whether the Massachusetts senator was who he said he was.

 

For Obama, any questions in voters’ minds about whether he truly is a change agent or is legitimately committed to breaking the alleged stranglehold lobbyists and other power brokers have over the political system is potentially disastrous. Because of the peril involved, it’s not terribly surprising that Obama moved quickly to "fix the glitch" once he realized questions about Johnson weren’t going away.

 

Seen another way, however, this episode could forebode poorly for how Obama handles the various slings and arrows sent his way by Republicans and their famed — and effective — noise machine.

Obviously, the lesson learned from the Swift Boaters was that sometimes the best attacks are those that come head-on at a candidate’s biggest perceived strengths. If you can sow a seed of doubt that your opponent isn’t all he or she is cracked up to be — and keep hammering home the message — eventually the seed can sprout into a real image problem. The Swift Boaters provided the template for the future of negative campaigning in the age of 24-hour cable news and the Internet ‘s continuous news cycle.

It will be interesting to see what role 527 groups, tax-exempt organizations that can spend money outside of Federal Election Commission regulations — like the Swift Boaters — play in this election. Already, the liberal über-527 MoveOn.org has launched an ad against Sen. John McCain that seeks to further the Obama camp’s efforts to tie McCain to President George W. Bush. The Obama campaign has yet to denounce the ad, and when Obama had the opportunity to admonish MoveOn.org following the "General Betray Us" New York Times ad last fall, like many of his Democratic colleagues, he missed the vote. This could give some indication that he has no intention of trying to rein in outside groups who will make attacks on his behalf.

Similarly, McCain told the Boston Herald he won’t be trying to putting a leash on the 527s either, as he did in 2004.

“I can’t be a referee of every spot run on television,” McCain told the Herald in an exclusive interview. “I admire Sen. Obama and his accomplishments, but we all know there are groups who want to attack me.”

 

The Arizona senator’s hands-off posture on attack ads by now-infamous tax-free and unaccountable political groups called 527s marks a softening of his view on the negative campaign tactic – and opens the door to a no-holds-barred five-month scramble.

Brace yourselves, folks, because it’s going to get ugly.