Putting Short-Term Warming Trends in Context

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Monday, October 18, 2010 at 5:19 pm

In keeping with my pledge to write about climate science more often, I thought I’d share the latest climate data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

According to NOAA, the arm of the federal government that monitors climate:

The first nine months of 2010 tied with the same period in 1998 for the warmest combined land and ocean surface temperature on record. The global average land surface temperature for January-September was the second warmest on record, behind 2007. The global ocean surface temperature for January–September was also the second warmest on record, behind 1998.

But what does this mean exactly and what do these numbers tell us about climate change?

I put this question to NOAA scientist Jay Lawrimore, chief of the climate analysis branch at NOAA. Though he warns that it’s difficult to extrapolate based on short-term climate data, Lawrimore says that the numbers play into the long-term warming trend. In fact, he says global temperatures should actually be cooling during the months when La Nina cools ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Given that temperatures increased despite La Nina, Lawrimore says, “The fact that it was warmer than average speaks to the fact that the overall trend in global temperature is a warming trend.”

Here’s a transcript of our conversation, edited for clarity:

How should people see these new data, and what do they represent in the larger climate narrative?

I think this represents the role of natural variability and the role of long-term trends in climate. And the fact that these play a key role in temperatures from month to month. Specifically, I’m referring to the presence of La Nina and the cooling influence that La Nina has on global temperatures. That’s kind of the natural component that I’m referring to and the fact that we have this long-term trend toward warmer temperatures, but there are things that come into play on a month-to-month and a seasonal basis that can affect global temperatures. While the trend may be positive, it doesn’t mean that every month is going to be warmer than the preceding month, or every September is going to be warmer than the previous September or the September before that.

Can you explain exactly what La Nina is in basic terms?

It is a cooling of ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. These cooler ocean temperatures, they have an influence not only on the global average temperature, but on overall weather patterns. They change the location of convection in the equatorial regions of the Pacific, which then has dampening influences in the way that atmospheric patterns move and weather systems move. And so, with La Nina, in general we have generally wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest and generally drier conditions in the Southern tier. And also on a global scale with cooler temperatures on the Pacific, there’s less heat being put into the atmosphere and it tends to dampen the overall global temperature.

When you say dampened, what do you mean?

Lower than the global temperature would have otherwise been when La Nina wasn’t present.

But the data showed that the temperatures were higher?

It was still warmer than average and the fact that it was warmer than average speaks to the fact that the overall trend in global temperature is a warming trend. Colder temperatures are rising and long-term scientists broadly believe this rising temperature to be the result of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. So you have this continual increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere that has a warming influence on the global temperature. But, like I said before, each year is not necessarily going to be warmer than the year before because there are other natural variations of the climate that influence the global temperature. So, the long-term trend is up, but some years may be a little cooler than others.

So, this information sort of plays into the long-term trend, but any individual temperature or group of temperatures within  a few months is just one part of the longer-term story?

Yes, when you’re looking at climate change you really want to be looking at long-term changes. You don’t want to be looking at any one in particular month or season or year. That in itself doesn’t give you much information as to the change over the long term that is really important in understanding how greenhouse gas concentrations are influencing the climate.

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JDoddsGW
Comment posted October 18, 2010 @ 11:09 pm

Just goes to prove that Jupiter's 12 year orbit (1998-2010) is primarily responsible for the increase in temperature due to the added energy from the force of gravity AND the release of stored potential Energy as Earth & Jupiter get closer together at their closest point in Sept 2010.

There is also the fact that when Jupter is at its closest point it is also at its most extreme point South of the equator resulting in more energy going into El Nino and La Nina & causing these cyclical variations.

On the other hand CO2 doesn't add any energy and what energy does go into causing the Greenhouse Effect actually comes from the energy photons (mostly from stored gravitational potential energy.) In fact the GHE theory says that more GHGs means more warming, so it is impossible for it to cool down (like every night) when the CO2 is constantly increasing.- so much for that flawed theory. See http://www.scribd.com for the paper “Gravity causes Climate Change” for more explanations.


mememine
Comment posted October 19, 2010 @ 12:38 am

History Will Say: “Nazis persecuted just Jews. The “Greenzis” wanted to eliminate ANYONE with wealth, waste and over-consumption.”

A GREEN Denier Manifesto: Responsible environmentalism that is no longer based on the CO2 mistake and the needless panic it brought upon us and our children.

I refuse to sell my soul on the CO2 issue any longer and I can‘t keep scaring my kids. The new energy we as real liberals need to give is LOVE, not windmills. I am a progressive-liberal and a former CO2 theory believer and now a part of the rising wave of GREEN “CO2 fear mongering” deniers. I suggest you believers do the same. The Carbon issue was our Iraq War of WMD lies and obviously, as we see now, wasn’t sustainable with the consensus that counts, with the voters. So were we the new neocons? We told our kids they wouldn’t have children because there was a climate emergency that “they” needed to fight it to survive. We acted like fear mongering climate cowards condemning our children’s future to a “Death by CO2“. Climate change has done to us what Bush did to the Republican neocons. Are you embarrassed yet? Good. Now it’s safe to say that climatologists and journalists were to science and journalism what abusive priests were to the Catholic Church. Worse still, the Green movement hated “ANYONE” with money, wealth and waste. Not just Jews, as the “you know who’s” did.

Preserve, protect and respect the planet, not save and rescue it from a false war.

We should have stopped spreading fear and lies like we were Bush Jr. babies and instead lead by example for our kids by facing the future with courage, not fear!

Lets’ be REAL liberals again: SYSTEM CHANGE, NOT CLIMATE CHANGE.

Birth Control, not Climate Control.


Orkneygal
Comment posted October 19, 2010 @ 4:47 am

The overwhelming paleoclimate evidence from around the globe is that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Roman Warm Period and the Minoan Warming were synchronous, world wide and much warmer than today.

However, the MWP deniers, such as the IPCC, US EPA and the UK’s MET Office, will never admit the existence of the MWP because it means that their religious-like belief in AGW is exposed for the steaming pile of junk science that it truly is.

In total, climate change is complex and not well understood.

But this part is simple.

Since the world was warmer when CO2 levels were lower, CO2 cannot be the earth's temperature regulator.

In the past, the Earth was warmer than it is today; before the social and industrial advances that have made modern people the healthiest and most prosperous in history. MWP deniers want us to believe that plant friendly and life giving CO2 is a bad thing to better advance their meglomanical desire to both boss around the developed world and further impoverish the poor while pocketing a lot of taxpayer money along the way.

Useless, misguided attempts to control carbon are not the answer to the ever changing climate.There is only one answer to changes in climate that has ever worked for humanity.

That is adaptation.

One of the many links to the overwhelming Paleoclimate evidence of the global nature of the MWP is below.

http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/mwpp.php

More information

http://www.c3headlines.com/temperature-charts-historical-proxies.html


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Comment posted October 21, 2010 @ 7:44 pm

“The overwhelming paleoclimate evidence from around the globe is that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Roman Warm Period and the Minoan Warming were synchronous, world wide and much warmer than today.”

Not a single word of this is true, and your links point to crank websites funded by the oil industry. All of these claims are routinely rebutted by actual climate scientists:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/myths-vs-fact-regarding-the-hockey-stick/


Orkneygal
Comment posted October 21, 2010 @ 8:33 pm

The co2science.org contains a wealth of useful information including a library of peer-reviewed scientific literature that demonstrates that the MWP was global, synchronous and warmer than today. The site is hardly a “crank” website, irrespective of how it is funded.

You ad hominem attack is typical of the alarmist, MWP deniers, who can't refute the science so they resort to attacking the messenger.

I suggest that anyone who is really interested in the future of our Planet to study the information at co2science.org for themselves and then decide.


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