rssCan Latino Republican Candidates Win Over Latino Voters?
Friday, October 15, 2010 at 4:14 pm
- 129 Comments
Newsweek’s Arian Campo-Flores has an interesting piece today about how political parties and observers should interpret the success of Latino Republican candidates who support harsh anti-illegal immigration policies. Florida Senate candidate Marco Rubio, New Mexico gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez and Nevada gubernatorial candidate Brian Sandoval are expected to win their elections in November, in part thanks to support from Latino voters. This would run counter to political wisdom and polling that suggests Latino voters prefer candidates — usually Democrats — who support immigration reform, and would likely be interpreted as proof that Latino candidates can win over Latino voters who might not otherwise vote for Republicans.
But not so fast, Campo-Flores argues:
If these emerging conservatives win, and capture sizable chunks of the Hispanic vote doing so, how will the major national Latino organizations, which are dominated by Democrats, react? As [Florida International University Professor Dario] Moreno summarizes the dilemma, “Do you denounce them as traitors, or try to embrace a broader Hispanic agenda?”
If that agenda involves policies that Latinos largely believe dehumanize immigrants, it may be a tough sell—which goes to the heart of the Republican predicament. After several election cycles in which the party has alienated the nation’s fastest-growing demographic, it essentially has two choices, says Sanchez: “either change your policy stances, or try to find candidates like” Rubio, Martinez, or Sandoval, who may be able to pick up Hispanic support. For now, the GOP has opted for the latter, a move that has generated no shortage of skepticism. “It’s very difficult to put the onus on a couple of these candidates after all the years of demonizing [blacks and Latinos],” says [University of Florida Professor Daniel] Smith. “These actions speak louder than a few token minorities at the top of the ticket.” The candidates would surely bristle at being characterized that way. Perhaps they can exact their revenge by proving him wrong.
Latinos make up sizable portions of the voting population in each of the three states, according to data released today by Pew Hispanic Center: Latinos account for 38 percent of the electorate in New Mexico, 15 percent in Florida and 14 percent in Nevada.
But Campo-Flores rightly notes each of the three states’ Latino populations has unique demographic qualities that make it atypical — if there can be considered a typical Latino population or Latino voter at all. In Florida, a large segment of Latino voters are from Cuba and Puerto Rico, meaning they never underwent a difficult immigration process to receive legal status in the United States. (Cubans are automatically given citizenship when they get to the States, while Puerto Ricans are American citizens.) New Mexico’s Latino population is largely American-born, meaning struggles of illegal immigrants are less familiar. In Nevada, while many Latinos are recent immigrants, most are not politically active.
If Rubio, Martinez and Sandoval win among Latino voters in their states, then, it does not necessarily mean they would win in others. It’s an obvious point — no two elections are exactly the same, of course — but one that is worth repeating as observers prepare to speculate on what the election means for the future of each party. While the election results may not indicate that Latinos are lifelong Democrats, victories by three Latino Republican candidates will not mean they are turning toward the GOP either.
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Comment posted October 16, 2010 @ 10:01 am
This is what the tea party wants to get rid of:
Public schools
Social Security
Medicare
Obama's health care
the Department of Education
the 1964 Civil Rights Act
The reason they want to get rid of all this is simple: they are a bigoted, racist group of elderly, white rich people who have already lived their lives and resent having to put up with minorities and having to pay for other people's needs. They are cheap, racist and at the end of their lives, simple as that. Mark Montgomery NYC, NY
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Comment posted October 17, 2010 @ 3:05 am
Rubio does not have “latino” support.
he does have cuban support!
only in USA cubans have such influence, it's a very intelligent people, but their country has nothing of real importance, they (country) leave of
favors of old ditactors or latino americans presidents who wich to be dictadors.
do not worry , we as a race we are conservators ,but humans.
Comment posted October 17, 2010 @ 3:45 am
Ms Boboberg, i hardly believe the tea party wants to get rid of the 1964 civil rights act…really? be intellectually honest, please! i could see getting rid of public schools and obama's health care and the dept of education and welfare…but that's just me and i am neither white, elderly, or rich…i'm just a muslim, middle class, brown, middlle age guy…just waiting for the chance to see sharia law in this country and america becoming a caliphate…you will see a new nation arise…in your lifetime!
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Comment posted October 19, 2010 @ 9:50 am
Rand Paul — at least as applied to businesses. They should have a right to refuse to allow or serve who ever they want…. He said so on Nat'l TV after he won the primary, then the Republican guys moved in and shut him down. He doesn't do TV interviews and only scripted public events now.
You sound like a bit of a liar — middle class wanting sharia law and think you will get it here? Lotsa luck.
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